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Cold weather

Will Arctic conditions cool Kansas City, Miami offenses?

If the weather forecast is accurate, they’ll be playing in single-digit conditions in Kansas City on Saturday. Will that help to slow down those offenses?

You would think that it would.

I remember the Seahawks-Vikings playoff game back in January of 2016, played in sub-zero conditions. Both teams passed for fewer than 150 yards, with the Seahawks winning 10-9. If Kansas City and Miami play that kind of game, there will be more misses than hits for fantasy purposes.

But one game is hardly statistically significant. Consider the chart below. It shows the last 18 games played in temperatures of 10 degrees or less. The scores trend lower, but not by as much as I would have thought.

There are 36 teams listed, and they averaged 19.7 points. That’s a couple of points lower than you would expect under ideal conditions. But not necessarily a dealbreaker. Travis Kelce, as one example, will be running plenty of short routes in the middle of the field; I don’t think his numbers will suffer.

Tua Tagovailoa is an undersized quarterback from Hawaii. He looks like a guy I would have very little interest in for this week. (He wasn’t all that effective in the earlier game against this defense, in better conditions.)

On the chart below, there’s one game in which both teams scored 30-plus points. As luck would have it, it’s Miami at Kansas City (back in 2008).

COLD WEATHER GAMES
YearWinnerLoserScoreTemp
2000at Kansas CityDenver20-79
2000at CincinnatiJacksonville17-149
2003at New EnglandTennessee17-144
2007NY Giantsat Green Bay23-20 (OT)-1
2008Houstonat Green Bay24-213
2008Miamiat Kansas City38-3110
2008at ChicagoGreen Bay20-17 (OT)2
2013at Green BayAtlanta22-219
2013at ChicagoDallas45-288
2013San Franciscoat Green Bay23-205
2015Seattleat Minnesota10-9-6
2016Tennesseeat Kansas City19-171
2017Minnesotaat Green Bay16-010
2017at IndianapolisHouston22-139
2021at BuffaloNew England47-177
2022Buffaloat Chicago35-137
2022New Orleansat Cleveland17-106
2022at PittsburghLas Vegas13-109

—Ian Allan

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