The Ravens were the league's best team in the regular season, and had the most convincing win in the Divisional Round. And yet they're favored by only a field goal, matched up with the best team from the past half-decade. It's tough to knock off the champs.

The Ravens should make a strong effort to the run the ball in this game. They had the league's top rushing offense, at 157 yards per game, and while their quarterback accounted for 30 percent of that, it was still a strong backfield -- albeit one with its two best runners (J.K. Dobbins, Keaton Mitchell) on IR. They'll instead send out Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and probably the recently signed Dalvin Cook, facing a defense that was most susceptible to the run (18th), allowing an average of 113 rushing yards. Buffalo ran for 182 yards against Kansas City last week, and while a chunk of that was Josh Allen, James Cook and Ty Johnson combined for 101, and they don't run the ball as well as Baltimore does.

Edwards starts and gets the most carries; he averaged 48 rushing yards during the season. But he was only modestly effective (4.1 per attempt), so Hill (4.6 per attempt, and 24 rushing yards per game) will mix in a healthy amount. And with Hill being more of a weapon in the passing game (13 yards per game) he might play about as much (especially if Baltimore is looking to slow down the pass rush with screen passes). Cook was essentially wasted with the Jets all season, but he had a 19-yard run last week, so maybe the Ravens work him in a little more as a change of pace. But note that all of Cook's carries last week came in the fourth quarter, with Baltimore up two scores, so he won't necessarily get a lot of work in this one. Edwards is the best bet for carries and if the ball winds up near the goal line, with Hill more likely to make an impact as a receiver. Cook is someone the team could work in early as a change-up, but seems just as likely not to get on the field at all. Kansas City also tends to tighten things up at the end zone, allowing just 10 rushing scores, so not a great situation. Preferable to go with more of a full-time back on one of the other teams this week, or a Lions committee that was a lot better, if quarterback rushing is removed.

Lamar Jackson will be winning the MVP, and certainly he's the pivotal player in this game. You kind of know what you're going to get with Patrick Mahomes, but Jackson hasn't been here before. He's facing the league's 2nd-ranked pass rush, and if it's able to get some pressure on him and keep him in the pocket, it could be a tough day for the Baltimore offense.

But the Ravens are at least presumably aware of this (coaching staff looks at stats, right?) and will be dialing up some plays to take the edge off Kansas City's pass rush. Quick passes to Justice Hill and Zay Flowers, screen plays, end-arounds. And probably a quarterback draw or three, with one of the game's best running quarterbacks making plays with his legs. Jackson has appeared in five postseason games, and he's rushed for at least 100 yards in three of them (54 and 34 in the two others). Kansas City was 4th in pass defense during the season, allowing 197 yards and 19 touchdowns. Jackson will likely finish under 200 yards himself, with 1-2 TDs (and just 1 more likely). But he might run for 80-plus and a score (he ran for 2 TDs last week), finishing with the weekend's worst passing numbers -- but the best overall fantasy stats. How successful he is as a runner will probably be the difference in this game.

There's some uncertainty with the receiving corps, but Zay Flowers looks pretty secure as the No. 1. There have been a couple of quiet outings the second half of the season (including 1 catch at Jacksonville in Week 15), but more commonly he's been busy. In his last five other games he's caught 27 passes for an average of 61 yards, with 4 touchdowns. He'll probably see a lot of L'Jarius Sneed, who famously didn't allow a touchdown in coverage all season, although that changed on a pretty remarkable Khalil Shakir score last week. Regardless, Flowers should be the top wideout.

Odell Beckham looks like the other noteworthy player, at least in terms of reputation. But he's been more miss than hit, enough that it's fair to wonder if multiple ACL tears have taken away most of his previous athleticism. Midseason he had four games with 4-5 catches, and 90-plus yards in wins over the Bengals and Rams. But he's caught just 1-2 passes in four straight games. A hopeful narrative that he "was being saved for the playoffs" didn't materialize with his single target against Houston. Those previous games show it's possible, but it can't be counted on. Nelson Agholor seems about as likely to step up. He had a touchdown and a 5-catch game in the same contests that were Beckham's best (Bengals and Rams), and scored last week while playing half the snaps. But just one other catch, and a lot more misses than hits. Rashod Bateman has two good games in a row (setting aside the meaningless Week 18 game). He caught 4 for 54 against Miami and 3 for 39 last week. But he hasn't reached 40 yards in any other game, and just 1 touchdown all season. One of these players will likely step up with a 3- or 4-catch outing, but there's not a clear favorite.

Mark Andrews (ankle) practiced fully each of the last two days, and will probably return. Some chance they'll ease him back in, but there's nothing to save him for if they don't win this game, so the lean is he'll play a majority of the snaps, with Isaiah Likely in a secondary role. Andrews scored 6 TDs in his first seven games, while Likely has scored in five of six since Andrews got hurt, so touchdown potential is high. Just 4 TDs by tight ends against Kansas City, but just 11 by wide receivers, so not a special strength of this defense. The Ravens threw nearly as many touchdowns to tight ends (12) as wide receivers (13), making Andrews look like the slight favorite for any touchdown catches -- assuming he's healthy enough to play at least half the snaps.

Justin Tucker is probably the best kicker in the history of the league, and he's in an offense that attempted more field goals during the season than any of the other remaining teams. Negative is that Kansas City allowed 4 fewer field goals than anyone else, but this definitely looks like a close, competitive game where both teams will be sending out their kickers a time or two.

The Ravens Defense led the league with 60 sacks and 31 takeaways, but matchups matter (Baltimore didn't have any of either last week). Patrick Mahomes was sacked only 27 times, so it's difficult to feel confident they'll get him more than twice. He threw 14 interceptions, his third straight year with 12-plus, so seems like Baltimore will get a chance or two to make a play in the secondary. But he hasn't thrown any in his last five playoff games (for his career, 7 interceptions in 16 postseason contests). Baltimore seems to have the best chance of returning a kick for a touchdown, with Devin Duvernay a former All-Pro and backup Tylan Wallace scoring on a punt return to beat the Rams. Kansas City hasn't allowed such a touchdown since 2020, although that was by Duvernay himself, as it happens.

Later today: Championship Game Rankings.

--Andy Richardson