In a story at ESPN.com, yesterday, Stefon Diggs was asked about next year with the Buffalo Bills. "I can't tell you what the future holds," Diggs said. It's fair to say that no one can, but it doesn't seem likely he'll be back with the Bills on his existing contract.
On the surface, Diggs had a pretty strong season, catching 107 passes for 1,183 yards and 8 touchdowns. He was the 9th-best wide receiver in PPR leagues.
But we like to look at first half versus second half numbers, and Diggs did all of his best work the first half of the season. In the final eight games, he was one of the least productive and effective starting wide receivers in the league.
In the final eight games, Diggs caught only 37 passes for 349 yards and 1 touchdown. (Compared to 70 catches, 834 yards and 7 TDs in the first nine.) Huge difference. And other metrics make him look pretty bad, too.
In those eight contests, Diggs caught under 59 percent of the passes thrown his way, averaging just 5.5 yards per target. Among all wide receivers with at least 50 targets in their final eight games (there were 38 of them), only Zay Jones had a lower figure. Some of the other guys down in that area of inefficiency seem more likely to be affected by lousy quarterbacking; harder to make that case with Diggs.
Data from pro-football-reference.com was used in compiling this table.
| WIDE RECEIVERS, LAST EIGHT GAMES (50-PLUS TARGETS) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | No | Rec | TD | Ctch% | Y/Tgt |
| Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 50 | 37 | 667 | 4 | 74.0 | 13.3 |
| Nico Collins, Hou. | 61 | 47 | 720 | 5 | 77.0 | 11.8 |
| Amari Cooper, Cle. | 70 | 42 | 772 | 4 | 60.0 | 11.0 |
| Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 53 | 36 | 560 | 6 | 67.9 | 10.6 |
| DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 55 | 42 | 584 | 4 | 76.4 | 10.6 |
| Christian Kirk, Jac. | 50 | 33 | 530 | 2 | 66.0 | 10.6 |
| Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 63 | 42 | 655 | 2 | 66.7 | 10.4 |
| Puka Nacua, LAR | 64 | 41 | 659 | 4 | 64.1 | 10.3 |
| Josh Palmer, LAC | 55 | 34 | 564 | 2 | 61.8 | 10.3 |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 75 | 48 | 765 | 5 | 64.0 | 10.2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 52 | 36 | 519 | 3 | 69.2 | 10.0 |
| D.K. Metcalf, Sea. | 57 | 31 | 562 | 6 | 54.4 | 9.9 |
| Chris Olave, N.O. | 61 | 43 | 606 | 4 | 70.5 | 9.9 |
| Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 84 | 58 | 785 | 5 | 69.0 | 9.3 |
| Rashee Rice, K.C. | 63 | 49 | 577 | 4 | 77.8 | 9.2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 77 | 54 | 694 | 6 | 70.1 | 9.0 |
| Drake London, Atl. | 53 | 32 | 467 | 0 | 60.4 | 8.8 |
| Jayden Reed, G.B. | 54 | 41 | 460 | 5 | 75.9 | 8.5 |
| D.J. Moore, Chi. | 74 | 49 | 629 | 3 | 66.2 | 8.5 |
| Tank Dell, Hou. | 54 | 32 | 458 | 5 | 59.3 | 8.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb, Dal. | 95 | 67 | 774 | 8 | 70.5 | 8.1 |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 62 | 39 | 502 | 1 | 62.9 | 8.1 |
| Michael Pittman, Ind. | 78 | 59 | 623 | 1 | 75.6 | 8.0 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 66 | 36 | 518 | 7 | 54.5 | 7.8 |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 95 | 66 | 724 | 3 | 69.5 | 7.6 |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 57 | 38 | 421 | 4 | 66.7 | 7.4 |
| Kendrick Bourne, N.E. | 55 | 37 | 406 | 4 | 67.3 | 7.4 |
| Calvin Ridley, Jac. | 75 | 41 | 545 | 6 | 54.7 | 7.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Ten. | 64 | 37 | 466 | 4 | 57.8 | 7.3 |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 55 | 33 | 400 | 1 | 60.0 | 7.3 |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | 61 | 32 | 434 | 2 | 52.5 | 7.1 |
| Adam Thielen, Car. | 51 | 35 | 362 | 0 | 68.6 | 7.1 |
| A.J. Brown, Phi. | 66 | 39 | 451 | 1 | 59.1 | 6.8 |
| Demario Douglas, N.E. | 56 | 35 | 364 | 0 | 62.5 | 6.5 |
| Davante Adams, L.V. | 90 | 52 | 571 | 5 | 57.8 | 6.3 |
| Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 73 | 40 | 400 | 1 | 54.8 | 5.5 |
| Stefon Diggs, Buf. | 63 | 37 | 349 | 1 | 58.7 | 5.5 |
| Zay Jones, Jac. | 57 | 29 | 266 | 1 | 50.9 | 4.7 |
Diggs is 30, so at an age where plenty of wide receivers are slowing down. He came up small in the playoffs, including on a deep ball that could have changed the outcome of the loss to Kansas City. He has a base salary of $18.5 million next season, and counts more than $27 million against the cap. Buffalo is going to need to figure out a way to change that, or perhaps move on entirely (if possible).
We'll see, but I'm not certain Diggs will be on the Bills roster next season. Certainly not with those kind of financials, given his second-half performance.
--Andy Richardson