The Commanders are bringing in Kliff Kingsbury to serve as their offensive coordinator, and a skeptic might ask if any consideration was given to signing him for only the first half of the season. All of his previous teams have fizzled late in the year.
And by “all”, that’s the last 11 teams he’s been associated with. Kingsbury was a senior offensive analyst for Southern Cal last year, working with the reigning Heisman winner. That team started 6-0, then lost five of its final seven.
Kingsbury was the head coach for the Arizona Cardinals the previous four years. In each of those seasons, those teams were a lot more successful in the first halves of those seasons.
And Kingsbury in the previous six seasons was the head coach at Texas Tech. All of those teams also faded. That’s 11 straight seasons of teams falling apart late in the year, suggesting that opponents tend to get a feel for how to defend his offense, with a lack of enough adjustments or growth to keep things rolling.
| FADING KINGSBURY | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Start | Finish |
| 2013 | Texas Tech | 7-0 | 1-5 |
| 2014 | Texas Tech | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| 2015 | Texas Tech | 5-2 | 2-4 |
| 2016 | Texas Tech | 3-1 | 2-6 |
| 2017 | Texas Tech | 4-1 | 2-6 |
| 2018 | Texas Tech | 5-2 | 0-5 |
| 2019 | Arizona | 3-3-1 | 2-7 |
| 2020 | Arizona | 6-3 | 2-5 |
| 2021 | Arizona | 8-1 | 3-6 |
| 2022 | Arizona | 3-4 | 1-9 |
| 2023 | Southern Cal | 6-0 | 2-5 |
Needless to say, I’m not a big fan of this hiring decision. I think we’ve seen enough of Kingsbury to conclude the Commanders are getting a modest play caller at best.
For fantasy purposes, I will concede that Kingsbury tends to successfully use the run around the goal line. In that part of the field, his teams tend to run it more than you would think, and with plenty of success. His teams at Lubbock scored tons of rushing touchdowns, and his Cardinals teams also tended to reliably produce rushing touchdowns.
In his four years at Arizona, Kingsbury’s teams scored 78 rushing touchdowns (in 66 games). Only three teams during that time scored more rushing touchdowns.
It’s early. Let’s see who’s starting at quarterback (probably a rookie), and who’s starting at tailback (probably Brian Robinson). But my hunch is some running back on that team will be scoring a dozen touchdowns this year.
| RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS (2019-2022) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Yds/G | Yds/Att | TDR |
| Philadelphia | 139 | 4.7 | 89 |
| Tennessee | 143 | 4.7 | 86 |
| San Francisco | 132 | 4.5 | 84 |
| Arizona | 124 | 4.5 | 78 |
| Baltimore | 175 | 5.3 | 77 |
| Cleveland | 140 | 4.8 | 75 |
| New England | 121 | 4.3 | 73 |
| Carolina | 115 | 4.4 | 72 |
| Dallas | 127 | 4.4 | 71 |
| Indianapolis | 129 | 4.6 | 67 |
| Minnesota | 121 | 4.5 | 67 |
| New Orleans | 121 | 4.3 | 66 |
| Buffalo | 126 | 4.7 | 64 |
| LA Rams | 104 | 4.0 | 64 |
| Kansas City | 111 | 4.5 | 63 |
| Seattle | 126 | 4.8 | 60 |
| Detroit | 109 | 4.3 | 59 |
| Green Bay | 120 | 4.5 | 59 |
| Las Vegas | 113 | 4.3 | 59 |
| LA Chargers | 100 | 4.0 | 57 |
| Tampa Bay | 91 | 3.9 | 54 |
| NY Giants | 116 | 4.5 | 53 |
| Chicago | 123 | 4.5 | 52 |
| Cincinnati | 99 | 4.0 | 52 |
| Atlanta | 107 | 4.1 | 51 |
| Denver | 114 | 4.3 | 51 |
| Miami | 92 | 3.8 | 49 |
| Washington | 112 | 4.2 | 49 |
| Pittsburgh | 98 | 3.8 | 45 |
| Houston | 97 | 4.0 | 42 |
| NY Jets | 95 | 4.0 | 42 |
| Jacksonville | 108 | 4.5 | 41 |
—Ian Allan