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Andy Richardson

Super Bowl Prop Bets

Wagers worth making on Sunday

If you're not interested in the Super Bowl, have you considered that perhaps you haven't placed enough bets? It's just one game of course, and there's a lot of silly ones (who wins the coin toss, color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach), but I think we can find some good possibilities.

I've looked at all of them and bet some of them. Here are my 10 favorites.

Quarterback passing over-unders. Both yardage totals for the quarterbacks look promising to me for one reason or another. Patrick Mahomes has an over-under of 262.5 and a TD number of 1.5. I think Kansas City will favor the pass and that's what San Francisco is weakest defending, so that's where more of the offense's production should come. It's not a slam-dunk but I'd bet the over (in the projections, I had Mahomes at close to 270 yards and 1.8 TD passes). For San Francisco, I do not believe Brock Purdy will reach his over of 246.5 yards. Kansas City ranked 4th in pass defense during the season, allowing just 197 yards per game, and has looked pretty tough in the playoffs, too. San Francisco should/will emphasize the run. I'll take the under.

Isiah Pacheco receiving yards. The news on Tuesday that Andy Reid didn't think Jerick McKinnon (groin) would be able to play in the Super Bowl was a positive for Pacheco. He's got a rushing over-under of 67.5 and a receiving one of 15.5. I'm not 100 percent sure which I like more, but with my favoring the over for his quarterback, I think Pacheco hitting that receiving over is reasonable. He should play the vast majority of the snaps, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire a little used change of page. I'm not going to recommend an aggressive bet on this one, but I think Pacheco should be enough of a workhorse in the last game of the year that he'll get there, probably with 3-plus catches.

Travis Kelce receptions. I will not be making any Taylor Swift-related bets. I think San Francisco will certainly make limiting Kelce a priority, but it's very hard to take him away. In three playoff games, he's caught 23 passes, and dropped two others in the frigid game against the Dolphins. That's an average of 8 per week, and certainly other defenses have wanted to take him away, too. Kelce has an over-under of 6.5 receptions. Betting on him to reach 7 in this game is something I feel good about.

George Kittle receptions. The numbers for Kittle look surprisingly low, until you note that he hasn't previously been a huge factor in playoff games. Kittle in 11 career postseason games has caught 31 passes; that's 2.8 per week. Accordingly, his receptions over-under is a modest 3.5. He also caught just 2 for 27 against Detroit. That being said, he caught 4 for 81 and a score against Green Bay. And I don't think his past production with Jimmy Garoppolo is particularly relevant. He's played four full playoff games with Brock Purdy and caught 4-5 passes in two of them (one of the exceptions was a blowout win, which won't be the case on Sunday. I expect Kittle to catch 4 passes and hit the over.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling receptions. Saying I'm not a fan of MVS is putting it mildly. Kansas City should never have given him the contract it gave him, and I'm not really sure why they put him on the field as much as they do at all. During the season he caught 21 passes in 16 games while playing with the game's best quarterback. Ludicrous. But, and it's a big but, they've settled on him as their No. 2 wideout. Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman, Richie James, Kadarius Toney -- weak as MVS may be, he's their 2nd-best option. (Moore, Hardman and Toney might not play on offense at all, even assuming they're active. Valdes-Scantling caught the game-clinching pass against Baltimore, and he's caught 2 passes in most of their competitive recent games: the Buffalo and Baltimore wins, and the Green Bay and Buffalo losses in December. I think he'll catch 2 passes again, beating his over-under of 1.5.

Kyle Juszczyk receiving. The fullback is a hit-or-miss option; he's been about 50-50 of late. He's caught 2-3 passes for 23-plus yards in three of six, with just 1 catch total in the other three. But that sure was a big sideline catch he had on the go-ahead drive against Detroit. Betting on him catching a pass or two in this game seems very promising. He has an over-under of just 3.5 yards, which he's exceeded in four of six.

Kansas City scoring. As noted elsewhere, I expect Kansas City to win this game. I'm not rooting for it, but that's what I figure will happen. So although the over-under of 47.5 looks about right and I'm not touching that one, the over-under of 23.5 for Kansas City looks too low to me (if you think Kansas City will win this game, you're probably comfortable that they'll score at least 24 points). I am, and I'll bet the over on their point total.

Total touchdowns. These are two very good defenses. Maybe the game turns out to be higher-scoring, but I've been going with about 27-24 as a final score, and that seems like the upper limit to me. I'm aware last year's game was a shootout, but this is a much better Kansas City defense. Anyway, the touchdown total (both teams) has an over-under of 5.5. If you think 6 touchdowns will be scored in this game, you either believe one team will score 4 or each team will score at least 3. I do not. I think we're looking at no more than 5 total touchdowns, and would bet the under.

Nick Bosa to record 2 or more sacks. Found this one on a USA Today list of props, so I'm not certain how trustworthy it is. But if you can bet this one, take the under. Bosa getting 2 sacks of Patrick Mahomes does not seem likely. Mahomes was sacked 29 times in 19 games this year; more than once in just 9 of those. Maybe he'll be sacked twice in this game -- maybe -- but the 49ers had nine players with multiple sacks during the season and three guys with 5-plus. Betting against Bosa taking Mahomes down twice is one I'll pursue.

Kick of Destiny 2. Gronk is going to make his field goal. No question.

If you're considering other props, feel free to ask about them in the comments and I'll let you know which way I'd go (if I'd touch them at all). In general, I'm not sure there's a huge amount of money to be made on the bets for this game, with so many of the outlandish or completely chance variety. But it does make things a little more interesting, so there's that.

Enjoy the game.

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