One prop bet that I didn't consider in yesterday's column was Harrison Butker. Kickers are unpredictable, dependent on game flow and the offense not getting into the end zone while in the red zone. And yet, his over-under looks kind of promising.
The number is 1.5 field goals; if you bet the over and he converts two such kicks, you win. Based on his recent performances, both in the regular season and the past couple of postseasons, it seems like that bet should hit.
This also looks good based on the opposing defense. San Francisco allowed 29 field goals during the regular season, which is a middle of the pack number. It allowed 6 more field goals than extra points; only three teams had a larger gap in that regard. In its two playoff games, San Francisco allowed 3 field goal attempts by Green Bay (2 successful, and a 41-yard miss). It allowed only one actual attempt by the Lions, but Dan Campbell's decisions to pass up a pair of makeable kicks to go for it on fourth down was rather controversial; certainly, Detroit had opportunities.
So a favorable matchup for Butker; Kansas City, in contrast, allowed just 22 field goals, and 6 more extra points than three-point kicks.
But it's Butker's track record itself that looks especially good. The table below shows Butker in his last six regular season games, and six playoff games the past two seasons. He's been busy, attempting 29 field goals in those 12 games -- just under 2.5 per week. He's made 26, just over 2 per week. (Playoff games in bold; his extra points are also shown). He's been getting on the field a lot.
| BUTKER, LAST 6 REGULAR SEASON, LAST 6 PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | XPM | XPA | FGM | FGA |
| 2023 | at G.B. | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2023 | Buf. | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2023 | at N.E. | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2023 | L.V. | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2023 | Cin. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 2023 | at LAC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2022 | Jac. | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 2022 | Cin. | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 2022 | Phi. | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| 2023 | Mia. | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 2023 | at Buf. | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 2023 | at Bal. | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
If you need to make one more bet, I think Butker hitting a couple of field goals tomorrow is pretty reasonable.
--Andy Richardson