There was a story floating around yesterday that the Ravens are the front runners to sign free agent running back Derrick Henry. Hard to know if these are actual news items or just ambitious reporters connecting dots. Either way, it's a belief I subscribe to -- Henry to Ravens makes too much sense not to happen.
Henry is 30 years old, and perhaps he's lost a half step. And as Ian posted yesterday the track record of transplant free agent running back is not so good. But I'm not betting against Henry and the Ravens being exactly what each part of that equation is looking for in 2024.
If Henry has lost a little, it hasn't been abundantly clear from his numbers. Last year he averaged just 4.2 yards per attempt, but still piled up 1,167 rushing yards and scored double-digit touchdowns for the sixth year in a row. This in an offense that didn't have much of a passing game and started a second-round rookie quarterback for half the season. A Henry something below what he was when he ran for 2,000 yards is still better than the vast majority of running backs in the league.
Baltimore, meanwhile, hasn't had a difference-making running back for a long time. You have to go back more than a decade to see big seasons from Ray Rice, and a few standout performances from guys like Justin Forsett and Willis McGahee. Since Henry entered the league back in 2016, there hasn't been a true standout in Baltimore.
Over the past eight years, Henry has posted four top-10 fantasy seasons (PPR scoring), and the guy he replaced, DeMarco Murray, had another. Baltimore has a single top-10 season from a running back in that timeframe: 2019 Mark Ingram. Just one other top-20 performance, too (2017 Alex Collins). Their top performance in the last four years was Gus Edwards ranking 26th at the position last season.
Some will point out that Baltimore has favored a committee at the position in recent years, but I think that's because of what they've had available. Edwards, Ingram, oft-injured J.K. Dobbins, Kenyan Drake et al -- all a step or three below what Henry brings to the table even at age 30.
BALTIMORE AND TENNESSEE RUNNING BACKS, 2016-2023 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Att | Yds | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 378 | 2027 | 19 | 114 | 17 | 337.1 | 3 |
2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 349 | 1538 | 33 | 398 | 13 | 308.8 | 4 |
2019 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 303 | 1540 | 18 | 206 | 18 | 300.6 | 5 |
2016 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 293 | 1287 | 53 | 377 | 12 | 295.9 | 5 |
2023 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 280 | 1167 | 28 | 214 | 12 | 246.8 | 9 |
2019 | Mark Ingram, Balt. | 202 | 1018 | 26 | 247 | 15 | 246.5 | 10 |
2018 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 215 | 1059 | 15 | 99 | 12 | 203.5 | 16 |
2021 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 219 | 937 | 18 | 154 | 10 | 193.4 | 22 |
2023 | Gus Edwards, Balt. | 198 | 810 | 12 | 180 | 13 | 191.0 | 26 |
2017 | Alex Collins, Balt. | 212 | 973 | 23 | 187 | 6 | 175.0 | 19 |
2017 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 184 | 659 | 39 | 266 | 7 | 173.5 | 21 |
2016 | Terrance West, Balt. | 193 | 774 | 34 | 236 | 6 | 171.0 | 23 |
2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 134 | 805 | 18 | 120 | 9 | 168.5 | 24 |
2017 | Javorius Allen, Balt. | 153 | 591 | 46 | 250 | 6 | 166.1 | 24 |
2018 | Dion Lewis, Ten. | 155 | 517 | 59 | 400 | 2 | 162.7 | 27 |
2023 | Tyjae Spears, Ten. | 100 | 453 | 52 | 385 | 3 | 153.8 | 34 |
2021 | Devonta Freeman, Balt. | 133 | 576 | 34 | 190 | 6 | 146.6 | 32 |
2017 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 176 | 744 | 11 | 136 | 6 | 135.0 | 37 |
2020 | Gus Edwards, Balt. | 144 | 723 | 9 | 129 | 6 | 130.2 | 37 |
2018 | Alex Collins, Balt. | 114 | 411 | 15 | 105 | 8 | 114.6 | 44 |
2023 | Justice Hill, Balt. | 84 | 387 | 28 | 206 | 4 | 111.3 | 44 |
2016 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 110 | 490 | 13 | 137 | 5 | 105.7 | 45 |
2022 | Kenyan Drake, Balt. | 109 | 482 | 17 | 89 | 5 | 104.1 | 45 |
2016 | Kenneth Dixon, Balt. | 88 | 382 | 30 | 162 | 3 | 102.4 | 47 |
Baltimore curiously didn't really try to run the ball against Kansas City in the AFC Championship game. Maybe it was the way the defense was playing them, maybe they didn't have faith in the players they could give the ball too. I think that would change with King Henry. I would be interested in him in Baltimore, and in the Ravens as an AFC favorite, if this signing happens next month.
--Andy Richardson