One of the more prevalent pre-draft debates involves the Chicago Bears and the No. 1 overall pick. Will they draft a quarterback and trade Justin Fields, or will they trade the pick for a huge haul and use those picks to build around him? I'm not afraid to take a stand: Fields is gone.
Not only is he gone, but I think Bears fans will be surprised at what he does (or doesn't) bring in return. It doesn't matter that he was the 11th overall pick three years ago, any more than it matters that Zach Wilson was the 2nd overall pick three years ago. Wilson is going to be released, not traded. Fields, I'm thinking a mid-round pick, maybe.
While Fields had a couple of big games last year, and has put up huge rushing stats all along (making him a nice asset in fantasy leagues), he hasn't developed much as a passer. And this isn't Jordan Love sitting on a bench; Fields has actually started 10-plus games in each of his first three seasons. And yet, he's put up some of the worst passing numbers in the league while doing so.
Over the past three years, there have been 18 seasons of a quarterback starting at least half the time and averaging under 200 passing yards per game. Only two guys have done it all three years: Wilson and Fields. Yesterday's subject of discussion, Kenny Pickett, is the other guy who's done it multiple times in that span.
| QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING UNDER 200 PASSING YARDS, 2021-2023 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Yards | TD | Y/G |
| 2023 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 13 | 2562 | 16 | 197.1 |
| 2023 | Gardner Minshew, Ind. | 13 | 3305 | 15 | 194.4 |
| 2023 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 11 | 2120 | 10 | 192.7 |
| 2023 | Joshua Dobbs, Ari.-Min. | 12 | 2464 | 13 | 189.5 |
| 2023 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 11 | 2271 | 8 | 189.3 |
| 2023 | Desmond Ridder, Atl. | 13 | 2836 | 12 | 189.1 |
| 2022 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 9 | 1688 | 6 | 187.6 |
| 2022 | Lamar Jackson, Bal. | 12 | 2242 | 17 | 186.8 |
| 2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pit. | 12 | 2404 | 7 | 184.9 |
| 2022 | Baker Mayfield, Car.-LAR | 10 | 2163 | 10 | 180.3 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 2877 | 11 | 179.8 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 2334 | 9 | 179.5 |
| 2023 | Kenny Pickett, Pit. | 12 | 2070 | 6 | 172.5 |
| 2022 | Marcus Mariota, Atl. | 13 | 2219 | 15 | 170.7 |
| 2022 | Jacoby Brissett, Cle. | 11 | 2608 | 12 | 163.0 |
| 2023 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 8 | 1616 | 4 | 161.6 |
| 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 1870 | 7 | 155.8 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 15 | 2242 | 17 | 149.5 |
On Fields' behalf, he was better last year (197 yards per game) than his first two seasons (150-156). That's why I think he might bring a mid-round pick, from some team that thinks he can take another step up in year 4 and is willing to risk, say, a third-rounder on that potential. But the Bears banking on that development while trading away the chance to select a franchise passer? I do not believe for a second that that will happen.
Those who believe Fields (or Wilson, or Pickett I guess) can still emerge as a viable franchise quarterback can cling to a couple of players who show up once on the above list and have advanced. MVP Lamar Jackson and should-have-been Comeback Player of the Year Baker Mayfield come off very nice seasons.
But nobody else on that list will be a Week 1 starter in 2024. Mariota, Ridder, Mac Jones -- they'll be backups, somewhere, at best. Fields will be starting somewhere in 2024, but I'm not optimistic about beyond that. And Chicago will probably be starting Caleb Williams.
--Andy Richardson