At what point do you give up on a struggling first-round pick? Quentin Johnston, as a recent example, had an underwhelming rookie season. Are we at the point where you’d rather trade him out for a receiver selected in the second or third round of the upcoming draft?
The Chargers, I would think, will give Johnston the opportunity to turn things around. They’ll likely be releasing Mike Williams, and they could use a receiver to step into that void. They thought enough of Johnston a year ago to select him just ahead of Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison. (Oops.)
The Chargers have an up-and-coming superstar quarterback, and Jim Harbaugh has seen Johnston at his very best. (Johnston came up huge for Texas Christian in a national semifinal win over Michigan in January, 2023.)
But Johnston was underwhelming as a rookie. He had ample chances to make an impact (with Williams missing most of the season) but was generally ineffective, catching 38 passes for 431 yards and 2 TDs. The low point came when he sealed a loss at Green Bay with drop late in the game.
The historical numbers indicate that when a receiver doesn’t show much in his first season, the odds go way up of him simply not being much of a player.
In the 32-team era, 36 other wide receivers picked in the first round have failed to catch 40 passes in their first season. Only six of those players ever put together a top-20 season (using PPR scoring). Only four others ever compiled a top-30 season.
Granted, there have been some notable exceptions. Roddy White, Demaryius Thomas, Javon Walker and Braylon Edwards all put together top-5 season. But there have been far more big misses, like Jalen Reagor, John Ross, Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson and Kevin White.
If we’re picking today, I would select Johnston with a flyer pick in the late rounds. But let’s see how the offseason unfolds. The Chargers may have soured on him enough to where they obtain some other receiver that they think will be better.
In the chart below, you’re seeing all first-round receivers picked since 2002 who didn’t catch 40 passes as rookies. The final column (“best”) shows the highest they ever ranked in their career among wide receivers using PPR scoring. The six who put up top-20 numbers at some point are tagged with black dots.
| FIRST-ROUND RECEIVERS CATCHING FEWER THAN 40 BALLS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | No | Yds | TD | Next Yr | Best |
| 2002 | • Javon Walker, G.B. | 20 | 23 | 319 | 1 | 41-716-9 | 3 |
| 2002 | Ashley Lelie, Den. | 19 | 35 | 525 | 2 | 37-628-2 | 27 |
| 2003 | Bryant Johnson, Ari. | 17 | 35 | 438 | 1 | 49-537-1 | 48 |
| 2003 | Charles Rogers, Det. | 2 | 22 | 243 | 3 | 0-0-0 | 88 |
| 2004 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 9 | 27 | 268 | 1 | 35-445-0 | 35 |
| 2004 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 29 | 7 | 119 | 0 | 36-508-3 | 41 |
| 2004 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. | 31 | 7 | 160 | 1 | 0-0-0 | 122 |
| 2005 | • Roddy White, Atl. | 27 | 29 | 446 | 3 | 30-506-0 | 1 |
| 2005 | • Braylon Edwards, Cle. | 3 | 32 | 512 | 3 | 61-884-6 | 4 |
| 2005 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 21 | 36 | 432 | 5 | 41-643-4 | 37 |
| 2005 | Mike Williams, Det. | 10 | 29 | 350 | 1 | 8-99-1 | 41 |
| 2005 | Troy Williamson, Min. | 7 | 24 | 372 | 2 | 37-455-0 | 77 |
| 2007 | Ted Ginn, Mia. | 9 | 34 | 420 | 3 | 56-790-4 | 33 |
| 2007 | Anthony Gonzalez, Ind. | 32 | 37 | 576 | 3 | 57-664-4 | 42 |
| 2007 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 30 | 20 | 188 | 1 | 4-59-0 | 106 |
| 2009 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 7 | 9 | 124 | 1 | 26-366-1 | 28 |
| 2010 | • Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 22 | 22 | 283 | 2 | 32-551-4 | 1 |
| 2011 | Jonathan Baldwin, K.C. | 26 | 21 | 254 | 1 | 20-325-1 | 101 |
| 2012 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8-130-0 | 133 |
| 2015 | • DeVante Parker, Mia. | 14 | 26 | 494 | 3 | 56-744-4 | 11 |
| 2015 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 20 | 23 | 283 | 1 | 36-365-2 | 23 |
| 2015 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33-499-3 | 51 |
| 2015 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 29 | 18 | 225 | 1 | 33-528-2 | 71 |
| 2015 | Kevin White, Chi. | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19-187-0 | 123 |
| 2016 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 22 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 35-502-6 | 57 |
| 2016 | Corey Coleman, Cle. | 15 | 33 | 413 | 3 | 23-305-2 | 83 |
| 2016 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 23 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 20-200-0 | 90 |
| 2017 | • Mike Williams, LAC | 7 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 43-664-11 | 13 |
| 2017 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 5 | 34 | 375 | 0 | 65-891-4 | 29 |
| 2017 | John Ross, Cin. | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21-210-7 | 74 |
| 2019 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 32 | 12 | 105 | 2 | 33-309-2 | 98 |
| 2020 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 12 | 26 | 452 | 2 | 24-469-2 | 86 |
| 2020 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 21 | 31 | 396 | 2 | 33-299-2 | 91 |
| 2021 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 20 | 39 | 420 | 0 | 16-171-3 | 89 |
| 2022 | Jahan Dotson, Was. | 16 | 35 | 523 | 7 | 49-518-4 | 51 |
| 2022 | Treylon Burks, Ten. | 18 | 33 | 444 | 2 | 16-221-0 | 78 |
| 2022 | Jameson Williams, Det. | 12 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 24-354-3 | 82 |
| 2023 | Quentin Johnston, LAC | 21 | 38 | 431 | 2 | ?-?-? | 74 |
—Ian Allan