Free agency is coming up, and the popular belief is that Saquon Barkley is the marquee running back available. I'm not going to argue it too strongly, but I think a case can be made that the team that winds up with Josh Jacobs will come out ahead.
The other main candidates, Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler, are 2-3 years older, and there's some evidence from last year (especially in the case of Ekeler) that they've lost a step or two. Barkley and Jacobs have the youth advantage and haven't shown signs of decline.
Regardless, if Barkley is the 1A, Jacobs is the 1B. I don't think it's a given that Barkley will be better in 2024 (though he'll likely be selected earlier in drafts).
Two tables for this one. The first shows the actual fantasy performance (PPR) of both backs in their careers, sorted by ranking. Both have three top-12 seasons. Barkley has the next-best, but also the two worst (with his torn ACL in 2020 the major negative).
| BARKLEY VERSUS JACOBS, FANTASY | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley | 16 | 1307 | 91 | 721 | 15 | 2 |
| 2022 | Josh Jacobs | 17 | 1653 | 53 | 400 | 12 | 3 |
| 2022 | Saquon Barkley | 16 | 1312 | 57 | 338 | 10 | 5 |
| 2020 | Josh Jacobs | 15 | 1065 | 33 | 238 | 12 | 8 |
| 2019 | Saquon Barkley | 13 | 1003 | 52 | 438 | 8 | 11 |
| 2021 | Josh Jacobs | 15 | 872 | 54 | 348 | 9 | 12 |
| 2023 | Saquon Barkley | 14 | 962 | 41 | 280 | 10 | 13 |
| 2019 | Josh Jacobs | 13 | 1150 | 20 | 166 | 7 | 21 |
| 2023 | Josh Jacobs | 13 | 805 | 37 | 296 | 6 | 27 |
| 2021 | Saquon Barkley | 13 | 593 | 41 | 263 | 4 | 30 |
| 2020 | Saquon Barkley | 2 | 34 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 121 |
Second shows a career comparison of the two. Barkley has been more productive pass catcher, averaging over a reception more per game for his career.
But Jacobs has been the more efficient receiver in a couple of metrics, and the more productive runner. And he's a full year younger (for those of us who like to place a lot of stock in that kind of thing).
| BARKLEY VERSUS JACOBS, CAREER | ||
|---|---|---|
| Category | Barkley | Jacobs |
| Age | 27 | 26 |
| Games | 74 | 73 |
| Rush/G | 70.4 | 76.0 |
| YPA | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| No/G | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| Rec/G | 28.4 | 19.8 |
| TDs | 47 | 46 |
| Catch% | 72.7 | 77.6 |
| Y/Tgt | 5.3 | 5.7 |
I know, Barkley was selected 20-some picks earlier way back when. He's viewed as more of a difference-making talent, and he'll get the bigger contract.
But I don't think it's a given that he'll have the better rest of his career from this point forward.
--Andy Richardson