It’s looking pretty certain that four quarterbacks will be picked early, maybe even with the first four picks. With three of those guys, there are issues with them holding the ball, trying to do too much.
Caleb Williams looks like the No. 1 overall pick. He had issues last year with playing too much hero ball, trying to improvise into big plays rather than just taking the easier, shorter completions that were there. He was sacked on 7.8 percent of his pass plays last season. That’s just short of the rate that Justin Fields put up at Ohio State. Fields has continued to struggle with sack issues at the pro level.
Jayden Daniels has also had some issues with hanging onto the ball too long. Not so much last year, when he had a 6.3 percent sack rate, which is below-average, but not alarming. The previous season, Daniels was sacked on 10 percent of his pass plays, way below even Fields. He likes to run around, making plays on the move.
Drake Maye is a different style of quarterback: larger and more often working from the pocket. (Not immobile, but he doesn’t move like Daniels or Williams). Maye took plenty of sacks at North Carolina, in part because he was working behind a lesser line.
If media reports are to be believed, J.J. McCarthy now belongs in this top group of quarterbacks, maybe even being selected before some of them. There was a report that an executive believes Washington will select McCarthy No. 2 overall. The Giants (picking sixth) will work him out this week. McCarthy didn’t have notable issues with sacks in college (though it can be argued that him being sacked on 5.4 percent of his pass plays last year for the national champion isn’t any better than Maye being sacked on 6.4 percent of his plays at 8-4 North Carolina).
Below see the sack percentage numbers for these prospects, compared to the other quarterbacks selected with top 15 picks in the last 10 drafts. For each quarterback, numbers for each of his last two college seasons are shown. For most, that’s the sophomore season numbers and the junior season stats.
Bo Nix and Michael Penix aren’t listed. It’s possible that one or both will be selected in the first 15 picks, but it’s not certain. I wanted to emphasize these four who’ll be going earlier, so I left out the two Pac-12 quarterbacks. (Some may have seen those numbers earlier; Nix and Penix were hardly sacked at all the last two years – they’d be the top 2 guys on this list).
| SACK PERCENTAGES, COVETED QUARTERBACKS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Players | No | Att | Pct | Per Att |
| 2019 | 15 | Mac Jones | 2 | 141 | 1.4% | 71.5 |
| 2016 | 3 | Sam Darnold | 6 | 366 | 1.6% | 62.0 |
| 2016 | 12 | Deshaun Watson | 17 | 579 | 2.9% | 35.1 |
| 2021 | 2 | C.J. Stroud | 13 | 441 | 2.9% | 34.9 |
| 2015 | 12 | Deshaun Watson | 15 | 491 | 3.0% | 33.7 |
| 2022 | 2 | C.J. Stroud | 12 | 389 | 3.0% | 33.4 |
| 2020 | 15 | Mac Jones | 13 | 402 | 3.1% | 31.9 |
| 2014 | 1 | Jameis Winston | 17 | 467 | 3.5% | 28.5 |
| 2018 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | 13 | 355 | 3.5% | 28.3 |
| 2022 | ? | J.J. McCarthy | 12 | 322 | 3.6% | 27.8 |
| 2018 | 15 | Dwayne Haskins | 20 | 533 | 3.6% | 27.7 |
| 2015 | 2 | Carson Wentz | 8 | 208 | 3.7% | 27.0 |
| 2019 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | 10 | 252 | 3.8% | 26.2 |
| 2019 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence | 17 | 407 | 4.0% | 24.9 |
| 2019 | 2 | Trey Lance | 12 | 287 | 4.0% | 24.9 |
| 2022 | 4 | Anthony Richardson | 14 | 327 | 4.1% | 24.4 |
| 2016 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky | 20 | 446 | 4.3% | 23.3 |
| 2020 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence | 15 | 334 | 4.3% | 23.3 |
| 2016 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes | 27 | 591 | 4.4% | 22.9 |
| 2020 | 2 | Zach Wilson | 11 | 236 | 4.5% | 22.5 |
| 2015 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes | 27 | 573 | 4.5% | 22.2 |
| 2022 | 1 | Bryce Young | 18 | 380 | 4.5% | 22.1 |
| 2014 | 2 | Carson Wentz | 16 | 336 | 4.5% | 22.0 |
| 2018 | 1 | Kyler Murray | 18 | 377 | 4.6% | 21.9 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jared Goff | 26 | 529 | 4.7% | 21.3 |
| 2016 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | 18 | 358 | 4.8% | 20.9 |
| 2014 | 1 | Jared Goff | 26 | 509 | 4.9% | 20.6 |
| 2019 | 6 | Justin Herbert | 24 | 428 | 5.3% | 18.8 |
| 2016 | 10 | Josh Rosen | 13 | 231 | 5.3% | 18.8 |
| 2023 | ? | J.J. McCarthy | 19 | 332 | 5.4% | 18.5 |
| 2017 | 10 | Josh Rosen | 26 | 451 | 5.5% | 18.3 |
| 2019 | 2 | Zach Wilson | 19 | 319 | 5.6% | 17.8 |
| 2022 | ? | Caleb Williams | 30 | 500 | 5.7% | 17.7 |
| 2017 | 3 | Sam Darnold | 29 | 480 | 5.7% | 17.6 |
| 2017 | 6 | Daniel Jones | 28 | 453 | 5.8% | 17.2 |
| 2017 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | 26 | 404 | 6.0% | 16.5 |
| 2019 | 1 | Joe Burrow | 34 | 527 | 6.1% | 16.5 |
| 2023 | ? | Jayden Daniels | 22 | 327 | 6.3% | 15.9 |
| 2023 | ? | Drake Maye | 29 | 425 | 6.4% | 15.7 |
| 2014 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | 31 | 445 | 6.5% | 15.4 |
| 2021 | 1 | Bryce Young | 39 | 547 | 6.7% | 15.0 |
| 2018 | 6 | Daniel Jones | 28 | 392 | 6.7% | 15.0 |
| 2016 | 7 | Josh Allen | 27 | 373 | 6.8% | 14.8 |
| 2022 | ? | Drake Maye | 40 | 517 | 7.2% | 13.9 |
| 2017 | 7 | Josh Allen | 22 | 270 | 7.5% | 13.3 |
| 2023 | ? | Caleb Williams | 33 | 388 | 7.8% | 12.8 |
| 2019 | 11 | Justin Fields | 31 | 354 | 8.1% | 12.4 |
| 2020 | 11 | Justin Fields | 21 | 225 | 8.5% | 11.7 |
| 2020 | 2 | Trey Lance | 3 | 30 | 9.1% | 11.0 |
| 2022 | ? | Jayden Daniels | 43 | 388 | 10.0% | 10.0 |
—Ian Allan