It's an exciting year for quarterbacks in the NFL Draft. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye seem slated to be the top 3 picks, and 2 or even 3 others (J.J. McCarthy, pictured, Bo Nix, Michael Penix) might be selected in the first round. And there will probably be some trades.
That's how things have worked out over the past 20 years, with at least one first-round trade involving a passer in 16 of those 20 drafts -- 25 total quarterback trades in the first round those years.
The bad news for teams considering such a move over the next two months is that the hit rate on those Day 1 deals has been relatively poor. There have been some big hits (Patrick Mahomes), but a lot more misses.
By my count, 9 of the 25 trades were successful. And I think I'm being fairly generous, calling the trade-ups for Jared Goff and Carson Wentz hits, since their teams did get to the Super Bowl in their tenures (Wentz deserves a lot of the credit for the year Doug Pederson's team won). I also called Deshaun Watson a hit; obviously things later soured, but he was a good pick. Mark Sanchez is trickier, with the Jets getting to two AFC Championship games with him, but they won more than 8 games with him just once and he was gone after four seasons.
In the table below, I've put the names of the quarterbacks I'm calling hits in bold. I believe 16 of 25 (about two-thirds) would not be considered successful trades by the teams that made them, at least so far (Bryce Young might still be fine, but for the purposes of this table I'm calling him a miss, especially since that trade up cost the Panthers the No. 1 overall pick this year).
Bottom line for teams considering trading up to draft a quarterback, tread carefully. There aren't a lot of sure things out there.
| QB TRADES IN ROUND 1 OF NFL DRAFT, 2004-2023 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Draft | QB trades in 1st round | Result |
| 2004 | Giants and Chargers swap Eli Manning, Philip Rivers; Bills trade up for J.P. Losman | Manning and Rivers worked out, Losman flopped |
| 2006 | Broncos trade up for Jay Cutler | Had his moments, but uneven career |
| 2007 | Browns trade up for Brady Quinn | Didn't work out |
| 2008 | Ravens trade up for Joe Flacco | Ravens perennial playoff team and won Super Bowl LXVII |
| 2009 | Jets trade up for Mark Sanchez, Bucs trade up for Josh Freeman | Some team success for Jets, but short-lived; Freeman washed out |
| 2010 | Broncos trade up for Tim Tebow | Some early success but not sustained |
| 2011 | Jaguars trade up for Blaine Gabbert | Journeyman backup |
| 2012 | Washington trades up for Robert Griffin III | Outstanding rookie season, but injuries derailed career |
| 2013 | Bills trade back, select EJ Manuel | Didn't work out |
| 2014 | Browns trade up for Johnny Manziel, Vikings trade up for Teddy Bridgewater | Manziel washed out quickly; Bridgewater decent starter for multiple teams |
| 2016 | Rams trade up for Jared Goff, Eagles trade up for Carson Wentz | Both teams to Super Bowls with those quarterbacks (more or less; Foles finished what Wentz started) |
| 2017 | Bears trade up to ensure they get Mitchell Trubisky, Kansas City trades up for Patrick Mahomes, Houston trades up for Deshaun Watson | A miss, a hit, and a mixed bag |
| 2018 | Jets trade up for Sam Darnold, Bills trade up for Josh Allen, Ravens trade up for Lamar Jackson | Two out of three ain't bad? |
| 2020 | Packers trade up for Jordan Love | Looked bad initially, but Love very good in 2023 |
| 2021 | 49ers trade up for Trey Lance, Bears trade up for Justin Fields | Lance now backup in Dallas; Fields given away to Pittsburgh |
| 2023 | Panthers trade up for Bryce Young | Disappointing so far |