Christian McCaffrey will be the first running back chosen in the vast majority of leagues, and that’s fair. With his ability to produce as both a runner and a receiver, he’s tough to beat. Eleven of his 31 touchdowns as a 49er have come not on runs but on passing plays (he saw more targets around the goal line than any of the many talented pass catchers on his team).
But at the same time, can we acknowledge that McCaffrey, who turns 28 next month, has moved out of the prime window of his career?
Not that he’s washed up or even slowing down all that much. He averaged a career-high 5.4 yards per attempt last year while finishing with the most rushing yards or his career. He also scored a career-high 21 touchdowns. But running backs tend to put up their best numbers before they turn 28.
Consider the chart below. It shows the 60 best seasons by running backs in the 32-team era. Only 10 of these running backs (in bold) were 28 or over. On this list, you’ll see nine running backs who were 25 and nine who were 27, but only four who were 28 years old. (The 26-year-old group has seven entries). There are three who were 29 and another three who were 30, but nobody who was older than 30.
Austin Ekeler last year provided an example of how quickly a 28-year-old running back can decline. Dalvin Cook also declined significantly last year as a 28-year-old (though his came in part because he didn’t play all that much).
At the top of the draft, the safe route might be to avoid McCaffrey by instead selecting a wide receiver. In a PPR draft, I’d be thinking hard about taking CeeDee Lamb No. 1 overall.
But McCaffrey is pretty darn good. He’s on the below list four times.
TOP 60 RUNNING BACK SEASONS SINCE 2002 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Age | G | Run | Rec | Total | TD | PPR |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 27 | 16 | 1815 | 508 | 2323 | 31 | 483.3 |
2019 | • Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 23 | 16 | 1387 | 1005 | 2392 | 19 | 471.2 |
2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 30 | 16 | 1420 | 690 | 2110 | 27 | 447.0 |
2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 24 | 16 | 1645 | 725 | 2370 | 17 | 444.1 |
2002 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 29 | 14 | 1615 | 672 | 2287 | 24 | 442.7 |
2006 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 23 | 16 | 1528 | 806 | 2334 | 16 | 419.4 |
2016 | David Johnson, Ari. | 25 | 16 | 1239 | 879 | 2118 | 20 | 413.8 |
2009 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 24 | 16 | 2006 | 503 | 2509 | 16 | 398.9 |
2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 24 | 16 | 1616 | 604 | 2220 | 18 | 396.0 |
2023 | • Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 27 | 16 | 1459 | 564 | 2023 | 21 | 395.3 |
2003 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 26 | 16 | 1883 | 367 | 2250 | 20 | 395.0 |
2018 | • Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 22 | 16 | 1098 | 867 | 1965 | 13 | 388.0 |
2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 23 | 15 | 1305 | 788 | 2093 | 19 | 387.3 |
2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 23 | 16 | 1683 | 489 | 2172 | 15 | 386.2 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 21 | 16 | 1307 | 721 | 2028 | 15 | 385.8 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 27 | 15 | 1287 | 693 | 1980 | 19 | 382.0 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 28 | 16 | 1880 | 78 | 1958 | 28 | 378.8 |
2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 27 | 17 | 915 | 722 | 1637 | 18 | 378.7 |
2020 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 25 | 15 | 932 | 756 | 1688 | 21 | 377.8 |
2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 22 | 17 | 1811 | 360 | 2171 | 20 | 377.1 |
2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 24 | 16 | 1364 | 704 | 2068 | 15 | 376.9 |
2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 27 | 16 | 1789 | 410 | 2199 | 19 | 374.9 |
2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 24 | 14 | 1251 | 580 | 1831 | 21 | 374.1 |
2007 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 28 | 15 | 1333 | 771 | 2104 | 12 | 372.4 |
2002 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 25 | 16 | 1853 | 363 | 2216 | 17 | 370.6 |
2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 22 | 16 | 1361 | 854 | 2215 | 11 | 370.5 |
2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 26 | 16 | 1462 | 370 | 1832 | 20 | 368.6 |
2005 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 26 | 16 | 1750 | 343 | 2093 | 21 | 368.3 |
2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 28 | 16 | 1474 | 475 | 1949 | 18 | 367.8 |
2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 26 | 16 | 1845 | 416 | 2261 | 13 | 361.1 |
2005 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 30 | 16 | 1860 | 530 | 2390 | 11 | 361.0 |
2022 | • Christian McCaffrey, 2TM | 26 | 17 | 1139 | 741 | 1880 | 13 | 356.7 |
2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 23 | 15 | 883 | 709 | 1592 | 18 | 354.2 |
2004 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 29 | 16 | 1518 | 578 | 2096 | 15 | 351.6 |
2012 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 27 | 16 | 2097 | 217 | 2314 | 13 | 351.4 |
2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 29 | 16 | 1038 | 808 | 1846 | 10 | 350.6 |
2021 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 26 | 16 | 911 | 647 | 1558 | 20 | 349.8 |
2002 | Charlie Garner, Oak. | 30 | 16 | 962 | 941 | 1903 | 11 | 347.3 |
2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 25 | 15 | 1291 | 655 | 1946 | 11 | 345.6 |
2020 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 25 | 14 | 1557 | 361 | 1918 | 17 | 343.8 |
2013 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 28 | 16 | 1339 | 594 | 1933 | 12 | 341.3 |
2004 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 25 | 15 | 1335 | 441 | 1776 | 18 | 340.5 |
2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 26 | 16 | 2027 | 114 | 2141 | 17 | 337.1 |
2003 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 24 | 16 | 2066 | 205 | 2271 | 14 | 337.1 |
2006 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 27 | 15 | 1217 | 699 | 1916 | 11 | 334.6 |
2002 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 27 | 16 | 1387 | 597 | 1984 | 11 | 333.4 |
2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 23 | 16 | 1695 | 485 | 2180 | 9 | 333.0 |
2009 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 24 | 16 | 1383 | 436 | 1819 | 18 | 332.9 |
2003 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 25 | 16 | 1641 | 516 | 2157 | 8 | 332.7 |
2013 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 25 | 16 | 1607 | 539 | 2146 | 11 | 332.6 |
2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 23 | 15 | 1434 | 567 | 2001 | 9 | 331.1 |
2002 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 25 | 16 | 1175 | 460 | 1635 | 18 | 330.5 |
2011 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 23 | 15 | 1309 | 315 | 1624 | 20 | 330.4 |
2022 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 24 | 17 | 1653 | 400 | 2053 | 12 | 330.3 |
2009 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 22 | 16 | 1339 | 702 | 2041 | 8 | 330.1 |
2004 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 27 | 16 | 1696 | 170 | 1866 | 20 | 329.6 |
2004 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 24 | 15 | 1188 | 588 | 1776 | 14 | 329.6 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 21 | 15 | 1631 | 363 | 1994 | 16 | 327.4 |
2009 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 24 | 16 | 1391 | 374 | 1765 | 16 | 325.5 |
2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 22 | 16 | 728 | 826 | 1554 | 14 | 322.4 |
—Ian Allan