With the way rushing production tends to be rewarded in fantasy leagues, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are tough to beat, as long as they stay in the lineup. But there's a lot to be said for top passers too, and Joe Burrow looks like he'll outperform the vast majority of quarterbacks in that regard.
On our initial board, Burrow comes in 2nd at the quarterback position. I think continuity helps (when you consider that Hurts is in a new offense and Allen has essentially a brand-new receiving corps), plus there's the fact he's been really good. Last year was cut short by injury (his second such season when that's happened), but he's been really good on the field, and was playing at a high level last year. In his last three full games (against stellar competition: San Francisco, Buffalo and Houston) he averaged 326 passing yards and threw 7 touchdowns. He also averaged 22 rushing yards in those games, though that's not a huge part of his game.
But over his four-year career, not many quarterbacks have finished with better passing numbers than he has. Among quarterbacks to start at least half the time, only three have averaged more passing yards. One of those guys (Justin Herbert) is in a brand new, likely run-focused offense.
In a draft I'm participating in right now, I just took him as the 7th quarterback off the board. If that continues, I'm clearly going to have him on a lot of teams this year.
Table sorted by passing yards per game over the past four seasons.
QUARTERBACKS PER START, 2020-2023 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | St | PYd | TDP | RYd | TDR | Pts |
Patrick Mahomes | 65 | 292.5 | 2.20 | 22.1 | .12 | 26.6 |
Justin Herbert | 62 | 277.8 | 1.84 | 14.7 | .18 | 23.9 |
Dak Prescott | 50 | 273.6 | 2.10 | 13.3 | .16 | 24.6 |
Joe Burrow | 52 | 270.8 | 1.87 | 11.6 | .19 | 23.4 |
Kirk Cousins | 57 | 269.5 | 2.02 | 6.9 | .07 | 22.9 |
Josh Allen | 66 | 265.8 | 2.08 | 37.4 | .56 | 28.9 |
Matthew Stafford | 57 | 263.5 | 1.77 | 4.0 | .02 | 20.9 |
Matt Ryan | 45 | 257.9 | 1.33 | 5.4 | .09 | 19.4 |
Jared Goff | 63 | 257.3 | 1.56 | 4.4 | .10 | 20.3 |
Derek Carr | 65 | 250.9 | 1.52 | 6.0 | .05 | 19.6 |
Tua Tagovailoa | 51 | 244.5 | 1.59 | 7.5 | .10 | 20.0 |
Kyler Murray | 49 | 243.4 | 1.51 | 38.9 | .45 | 25.0 |
Geno Smith | 35 | 242.2 | 1.54 | 15.4 | .09 | 20.5 |
Aaron Rodgers | 50 | 242.2 | 2.22 | 6.9 | .14 | 22.6 |
Trevor Lawrence | 50 | 235.4 | 1.16 | 19.3 | .22 | 19.8 |
Russell Wilson | 60 | 232.0 | 1.78 | 21.9 | .17 | 22.0 |
Jalen Hurts | 51 | 228.0 | 1.29 | 47.5 | .80 | 26.2 |
Jimmy Garoppolo | 37 | 226.9 | 1.32 | 3.9 | .11 | 17.7 |
Ryan Tannehill | 53 | 217.7 | 1.34 | 13.4 | .32 | 19.7 |
Baker Mayfield | 57 | 217.5 | 1.37 | 9.5 | .07 | 17.8 |
Carson Wentz | 37 | 215.6 | 1.49 | 17.1 | .22 | 20.2 |
Mac Jones | 42 | 212.3 | 1.10 | 7.8 | .02 | 16.0 |
Lamar Jackson | 55 | 210.2 | 1.51 | 61.0 | .31 | 24.6 |
Daniel Jones | 47 | 201.8 | .81 | 34.8 | .23 | 18.4 |
Justin Fields | 38 | 173.8 | 1.05 | 57.5 | .34 | 20.8 |
--Andy Richardson