Factoid

June 18, 2024

First-round quarterbacks

They'll start, but how good will they be?

There were six quarterbacks selected in the first 12 picks of the draft this year. Recent history suggests those guys will be starting sooner rather than later. But should fantasy teams be selecting them? That's less certain.

Patrick Mahomes, famously, sat as a rookie back in 2017, starting only the meaningless finale. That was enough for Kansas City to move on from Alex Smith in the offseason, with Mahomes going on to have the remarkable career he's in the midst of. Since that time, there's been only one first-round quarterback who didn't start at least half of his rookie season (not counting guys who would have but for injury).

Twenty-four first-round quarterbacks. Four other guys who didn't start at least 7 games. Two of them (Watson, Richardson) definitely would have, one (Lance) might have, but probably not.

Table sorted by number of rookie-year starts by those first-round quarterbacks since Mahomes. Guys who finished with top-12 numbers are in bold.

FIRST-ROUND QBS SINCE 2017
Year	Player	GS	Pass	TD	Run	TD	Rk	Note
2021	Mac Jones, N.E.	17	3801	22	129	0	17	Immediate starter
2021	Trevor Lawrence, Jac.	17	3641	12	334	2	22	Immediate starter
2023	Bryce Young, Car.	16	2877	11	253	0	23	Immediate starter
2019	Kyler Murray, Ari.	16	3722	20	544	4	6	Immediate starter
2023	C.J. Stroud, Hou.	15	4108	23	167	3	13	Immediate starter
2020	Justin Herbert, LAC	15	4336	31	234	5	9	Week 2 starter
2021	Zach Wilson, NYJ	13	2334	9	185	4	30	Immediate starter
2018	Baker Mayfield, Cle.	13	3725	27	131	0	17	Week 4 starter
2018	Sam Darnold, NYJ	13	2865	17	138	1	24	Immediate starter
2018	Josh Rosen, Ari.	13	2278	11	138	0	32	Week 4 starter
2022	Kenny Pickett, Pitt.	12	2404	7	237	3	28	Week 5 starter
2019	Daniel Jones, NYG	12	3027	24	279	2	20	Week 3 starter
2017	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	12	2193	7	248	2	29	Week 5 starter
2018	Josh Allen, Buff.	11	2074	10	631	8	22	Week 2 starter
2021	Justin Fields, Chi.	10	1870	7	420	2	31	Week 3 starter
2020	Joe Burrow, Cin.	10	2688	13	142	3	25	Immediate starter
2020	Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.	9	1814	11	109	3	34	Midseason starter
2019	Dwayne Haskins, Was.	7	1365	7	101	0	33	Midseason starter
2018	Lamar Jackson, Balt.	7	1201	6	695	5	30	Midseason starter
2017	Deshaun Watson, Hou.	6	1699	19	269	2	27	Week 2 starter; injured
2023	Anthony Richardson, Ind.	4	577	3	136	4	43	Immediate starter; injured
2021	Trey Lance, S.F.	2	603	5	168	1	40	Week 5 starter; injured
2017	Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	1	284	0	10	0	53	Backup
2020	Jordan Love, G.B.	0	0	0	0	0	999	Backup

The second part of this table is, how many of these guys were good starters in fantasy leagues? The answer is not many.

Of all those quarterbacks, only two ranked in the top 15 at the position (4-point TD passes, 6-point TD runs, 1 point for every 20 passing and 10 rushing yards). Both guys (Murray and Herbert) got there in large part due to their rushing production. That's why Jayden Daniels and to a lesser extent Caleb Williams might make some sense as fantasy backups this season. Possibly Drake Maye; he also ran a surprising amount in college. And it's why J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix and Michael Penix (especially) seem like longer shots to be viable in fantasy leagues.

I did draft Nix as a third quarterback in a 28-round best-ball league. I think all of these guys, except Penix, make some sense in that kind of format. The history suggests a really good chance they'll all be starting at least half of their rookie seasons.

But it also suggests they won't be difference-makers right away. Only a couple have been; odds are definitely against it. (Even C.J. Stroud, who just had one more the more remarkable rookie seasons, finished 13th at the position -- good, but not necessarily winning leagues.) I don't expect to build a fantasy roster around any of these guys, beyond a possible No. 2 with some upside for more. And even then I'll be looking at veterans (say, Baker Mayfield) first.

--Andy Richardson

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