Factoid

June 24, 2024

Sophomore receivers

Receivers looking to ascend in their second season

If you’re looking for receivers who look like they might break out in their second season, it’s a good year to be shopping. Five different rookie pass catchers last year finished within striking range of 1,000 yards, looking like they might become difference-making kind of guys.

All played well enough that it’s arguably not fair to call them sleepers. Jordan Addison and Jayden Reed both scored 10 touchdowns. Rashee Rice was one of the top dozen receivers in the league in the second half of the seasons. Tank Dell was cooking until getting hurt. And Zay Flowers was Baltimore’s leading wide receiver all along.

But none of these receivers finished with top 20 numbers (at least using PPR scoring). All finished with top-40 stats, but a notch back from the big-time players at the position.

When you select a receiver of this sort, it’s usually with the hope they develop into league-winning kind of guys.

If we use past receivers that have been in similar positions in the past as a guide, those numbers show about half of such receivers tend to move up into the top 20. In the last 10 years, there have been 24 receivers who’ve finished with top-40 numbers in their first season (but without making the top 20). Half of those players the next year then finished in the top 20. (In the chart below, I’ve got the four who made the top 10 in bold, and the other eight who made the top 20 tagged with black dots.

Of those 24 receivers, only five kind of busted, dropping out of the top 40. Sterling Shepard, Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel all got hurt (Kupp and Deebo proved their worth in later seasons). Darius Slayton and Cordarrelle Patterson were the only two who simply didn’t produce.

As a group, those 24 receivers caught an additional 208 passes for an additional 2,530 yards in their second season. Oddly, they scored 25 fewer touchdowns, which I can’t explain. (Maybe defenses started keying on them more after a year, with more tape available on favored routes?)

PROMISING ROOKIE RECEIVERS (last 10 years)
Year	Player	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Rk
2013	Cordarrelle Patterson, Min.	45	469	9	161.7	38
2014	Jordan Matthews, Phil.	67	872	8	202.2	25
2014	Sammy Watkins, Buff.	65	982	6	200.0	27
2014	Jarvis Landry, Mia.	84	758	5	189.4	30
2015	Amari Cooper, Oak.	72	1,070	6	214.7	21
2016	Sterling Shepard, NYG	65	683	8	184.4	36
2017	Cooper Kupp, LAR	62	869	5	178.9	25
2018	DJ Moore, Car.	55	788	2	163.0	36
2019	A.J. Brown, Ten.	52	1,051	9	217.1	22
2019	DK Metcalf, Sea.	58	900	7	193.1	29
2019	Terry McLaurin, Was.	58	919	7	191.9	30
2019	Deebo Samuel, S.F.	57	802	6	191.1	31
2019	Darius Slayton, NYG	48	740	8	170.0	37
2019	Diontae Johnson, Pitt.	59	680	6	167.1	39
2020	CeeDee Lamb, Dall.	74	935	7	219.7	22
2020	Chase Claypool, Pitt.	62	873	11	216.9	23
2020	Tee Higgins, Cin.	67	908	6	196.6	28
2020	Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.	60	748	7	184.5	35
2021	Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.	90	912	6	227.3	22
2021	DeVonta Smith, Phil.	64	916	5	187.6	30
2022	Garrett Wilson, NYJ	83	1,103	4	217.7	21
2022	Chris Olave, N.O.	72	1,042	4	202.2	24
2022	Drake London, Atl.	72	866	4	184.6	28
2022	George Pickens, Pitt.	52	801	5	166.5	40
2023	Jordan Addison, Min.	70	911	10	221.3	23
2023	Jayden Reed, G.B.	64	793	10	217.2	25
2023	Rashee Rice, K.C.	79	938	7	214.5	27
2023	Zay Flowers, Balt.	77	858	6	206.4	31
2023	Tank Dell, Hou.	47	709	7	165.0	39

PROMISING ROOKIE RECEIVERS (2nd-year numbers)
Year	Player	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Rk
2014	Cordarrelle Patterson, Min.	33	384	2	95.1	83
2015	Jarvis Landry, Mia.	110	1,157	6	275.5	9
2015	• Jordan Matthews, Phil.	85	997	8	232.7	16
2015	• Sammy Watkins, Buff.	60	1,047	9	218.8	20
2016	• Amari Cooper, Oak.	83	1,153	5	232.3	15
2017	Sterling Shepard, NYG	59	731	2	144.5	42
2018	Cooper Kupp, LAR	40	566	6	135.1	51
2019	• DJ Moore, Car.	87	1,175	4	232.5	16
2020	DK Metcalf, Sea.	83	1,303	10	273.3	7
2020	• A.J. Brown, Ten.	70	1,075	12	249.5	11
2020	• Terry McLaurin, Was.	87	1,118	4	225.8	20
2020	Diontae Johnson, Pitt.	88	923	7	223.8	21
2020	Darius Slayton, NYG	50	751	3	143.0	54
2020	Deebo Samuel, S.F.	33	391	1	80.7	96
2021	• CeeDee Lamb, Dall.	79	1,102	6	232.8	19
2021	Tee Higgins, Cin.	74	1,091	6	221.1	23
2021	Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.	56	826	5	172.3	35
2021	Chase Claypool, Pitt.	59	860	2	166.6	38
2022	Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.	106	1,161	6	267.6	7
2022	DeVonta Smith, Phil.	95	1,196	7	256.6	9
2023	• Chris Olave, N.O.	87	1,123	5	231.3	16
2023	Garrett Wilson, NYJ	95	1,042	3	217.2	26
2023	George Pickens, Pitt.	63	1,140	5	208.8	30
2023	Drake London, Atl.	69	905	2	174.6	36

While big-picture trends are nice to look at, painting a general expectation, ultimately each player has to be graded on his merits. Addison, Reed and Dell are all in crowded receiving situations. I think it’s more likely those receivers will remain outside the top 20 this year. I think they’re far more likely to be good rather than great.

Rice would have been a top-10 receiver on my board, but with the car-racing shenanigans and a likely league suspension, he has an asterisk next to his name for now.

Zay Flowers is definitely a featured receiver but plays for a team with a more run-oriented offense. I think he’ll make it into the top 20, but he’s probably not going to push it all the way up into the top 10.

(Note, by the way, that Puka Nacua isn’t listed here. After catching 105 passes as a rookie, he’s something different – he’s already arrived at the greatness level, rather than being a guy who’s hoping to get there.)

—Ian Allan

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