Strength of schedule can give an indication of which teams might benefit from easy schedules, but it’s commonly based on how teams have played in the past. A lot of teams, however, will be dramatically different in 2024. The Bears, as one example, look a lot more formidable with Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze added to that offense.
So rather than using the win-loss totals from 2023, it’s logical to instead plug in the over-under win totals. There will still be surprise teams, throwing a wrench into expectations, but it makes more sense to use not last year’s results but instead the expectation of how teams will perform in 2024.
There are various gambling services that set win-loss totals for each team. (Those are the totals where about half of the betting action will be on each side of the number). If we use FanDuel and Bet MGM, averaging those totals, they give a reasonable expectation of what to expect from each team (or, at least, what people are expecting from those teams). Those numbers are as follows ….
| OVER-UNDER WIN TOTALS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | FanDuel | Bet MGM | Avg |
| Kansas City | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| San Francisco | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| Baltimore | 10.5 | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| Buffalo | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| Cincinnati | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| Dallas | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| Detroit | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| Philadelphia | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| Atlanta | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| Green Bay | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| Houston | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| Miami | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| NY Jets | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| Chicago | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Cleveland | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Indianapolis | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Jacksonville | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| LA Chargers | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| LA Rams | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 8.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| New Orleans | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Seattle | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Arizona | 7.5 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Las Vegas | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Minnesota | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| NY Giants | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Washington | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Carolina | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Denver | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| New England | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
Aside: I don’t see anything here that looks wildly out of whack, so I will decline to recommend any teams as favorable bets on those win totals. Baltimore, Buffalo, Dallas and Miami perhaps look a little high, having just looked at Andy Richardson’s offseason gain-loss articles last week. And it seems hard to believe that Sean Payton, in the second year of his rebuild, will fall from 8 wins down to 5.5.
Regardless, if we take those over-under totals and insert them in the 2024 schedule, they suggest the Falcons and Chargers will be on the easiest roads this year, while the Patriots, Steelers and Browns will play the hardest schedules.
(Note, by the way, that some schedules show with a tie. I added those in to avoid listing teams with half games – Jets, as the first example, were changed from 136.5 wins and 152.5 losses, to 136 wins, 152 losses and 1 tie.)
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, OVER-UNDER WINS (G 1-17) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct | '23 Rk |
| Atlanta | 129 | 160 | 0 | .446 | 1-2 |
| LA Chargers | 133 | 156 | 0 | .460 | 5-6 |
| • NY Jets | 136 | 152 | 1 | .472 | 18-21 |
| Chicago | 137 | 152 | 0 | .474 | 3-4 |
| New Orleans | 137 | 151 | 1 | .476 | 1-2 |
| Cincinnati | 137 | 151 | 1 | .476 | 14-17 |
| Indianapolis | 138 | 151 | 0 | .478 | 10-12 |
| Kansas City | 140 | 148 | 1 | .486 | 14-17 |
| • Carolina | 141 | 148 | 0 | .488 | 3-4 |
| Miami | 141 | 148 | 0 | .488 | 7-9 |
| Philadelphia | 141 | 147 | 1 | .490 | 10-12 |
| • Jacksonville | 143 | 145 | 1 | .497 | 23-25 |
| • Tampa Bay | 144 | 145 | 0 | .498 | 5-6 |
| Arizona | 144 | 144 | 1 | .500 | 7-9 |
| Seattle | 144 | 144 | 1 | .500 | 7-9 |
| San Francisco | 144 | 144 | 1 | .500 | 18-21 |
| Washington | 145 | 144 | 0 | .502 | 14-17 |
| Detroit | 145 | 144 | 0 | .502 | 22 |
| LA Rams | 145 | 143 | 1 | .503 | 18-21 |
| Las Vegas | 145 | 143 | 1 | .503 | 23-25 |
| NY Giants | 145 | 143 | 1 | .503 | 26-27 |
| Green Bay | 146 | 143 | 0 | .505 | 28-29 |
| Denver | 146 | 142 | 1 | .507 | 13 |
| Dallas | 146 | 142 | 1 | .507 | 18-21 |
| • Tennessee | 147 | 141 | 1 | .510 | 10-12 |
| Buffalo | 147 | 141 | 1 | .510 | 26-27 |
| Baltimore | 147 | 141 | 1 | .510 | 31 |
| Houston | 149 | 140 | 0 | .516 | 28-29 |
| • Minnesota | 150 | 139 | 0 | .519 | 14-17 |
| Cleveland | 150 | 138 | 1 | .521 | 32 |
| Pittsburgh | 153 | 135 | 1 | .531 | 30 |
| New England | 154 | 135 | 0 | .533 | 23-25 |
The final column of the chart shows the team’s rank using the traditional method (with 1 being the easiest and 32 behind the hardest), so we can see which teams changed the most.
N.Y. Jets: They have a below-average schedule using the traditional method. Plugging in over-under totals, they project to play the 3rd-easiest. If you’re looking to maybe invest in Garrett Wilson or Breece Hall, this could be the little nugget that pushing you over the hump.
Tennessee: Using 2023 data, Titans have a top-10 schedule. Using the betting data, they have a bottom-10 schedule.
Jacksonville: Jaguars have a bottom-10 schedule using the traditional system. They have a slightly above-average schedule using this method. They play in the same division as the Titans, oddly, but their schedule moved in the opposite direction (weird, with most of the opponents being the same).
Panthers/Bucs: The traditional numbers suggest these two NFC South teams will play easy schedules. The over-under totals suggest their schedules are more likely to be only average.
Minnesota: If these over-under totals come to fruition, the Vikings will play the 4th-hardest schedule. Using last year’s win-loss totals, they were supposed to play a schedule that was easier than most.
Most fantasy leagues don’t use Week 18, so I also ran the numbers with those games omitted. If we’re going that route, the numbers would then look as follows …
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, OVER-UNDER WINS (G 1-16) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Win | Loss | Tie | Pct | '23 Rk |
| Atlanta | 123 | 148 | 1 | .454 | 4-6 |
| LA Chargers | 126 | 145 | 1 | .465 | 7 |
| NY Jets | 127 | 145 | 0 | .467 | 15-16 |
| Chicago | 127 | 144 | 1 | .469 | 2 |
| Indianapolis | 129 | 142 | 1 | .476 | 11-13 |
| Cincinnati | 129 | 142 | 1 | .476 | 15-16 |
| New Orleans | 130 | 142 | 0 | .478 | 1 |
| Carolina | 131 | 140 | 1 | .483 | 3 |
| Miami | 131 | 140 | 1 | .483 | 14 |
| Arizona | 133 | 139 | 0 | .489 | 4-6 |
| Washington | 134 | 137 | 1 | .494 | 11-13 |
| Denver | 135 | 137 | 0 | .496 | 9-10 |
| Philadelphia | 135 | 137 | 0 | .496 | 17 |
| Kansas City | 135 | 137 | 0 | .496 | 18-20 |
| NY Giants | 135 | 137 | 0 | .496 | 21 |
| Jacksonville | 135 | 137 | 0 | .496 | 22 |
| Seattle | 136 | 136 | 0 | .500 | 8 |
| Tampa Bay | 136 | 135 | 1 | .502 | 4-6 |
| Las Vegas | 137 | 135 | 0 | .504 | 26 |
| San Francisco | 137 | 134 | 1 | .506 | 24-25 |
| Green Bay | 137 | 134 | 1 | .506 | 28-31 |
| Tennessee | 138 | 134 | 0 | .507 | 9-10 |
| LA Rams | 138 | 134 | 0 | .507 | 18-20 |
| Detroit | 138 | 133 | 1 | .509 | 23 |
| Baltimore | 139 | 133 | 0 | .511 | 27 |
| Minnesota | 139 | 132 | 1 | .513 | 11-13 |
| Cleveland | 139 | 132 | 1 | .513 | 28-31 |
| Dallas | 140 | 132 | 0 | .515 | 24-25 |
| Houston | 142 | 129 | 1 | .524 | 32 |
| Pittsburgh | 143 | 129 | 0 | .526 | 28-31 |
| Buffalo | 143 | 129 | 0 | .526 | 28-31 |
| New England | 143 | 128 | 1 | .528 | 18-20 |
—Ian Allan