Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: weighing George Pickens' youth and potential against Davante Adams track record and heavy target share. How many Rams is too many? Is Jayden Reed for real? And more.
Question 1
4-man Keeper League QB-heavy (all TDs 6 pts). Also three WR start. Probably keeping Jacobs, Pacheco, D.Adams and Richardson but also have Pickens, Ch. Watson and T. Lawrence. Would you keep anyone different? Also, I don't know who everyone else is keeping on their rosters but would you take Harrison Jr. or Caleb Williams with the first overall pick?
Jeff Zwiers (Bellingham, WA)
I think Pickens vs. Adams can be discussed. Pickens is 8 years younger, and a clearly defined No. 1 option for his team. Pittsburgh’s other starting wide receiver (barring a trade for Aiyuk) will be somebody like Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins or rookie Roman Wilson. The Steelers have thrown a league-low 25 touchdowns over the last two years, but I think they’ll be a lot better this year, with a more accomplished veteran at quarterback. Adams, on the other hand, will be 32 by the end of the season, and plays for a team that could be worse this season. They’ll have some combination of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell at quarterback (which I’ll admit is arguably similar to Pittsburgh’s Wilson-Fields combo), and they’ll be working behind a lesser OL. Andy Richardson took a stab at ranking the offensive lines and settled on the Raiders as 29th in that regard. Las Vegas may be plugging in former seventh-round pick at right tackle. If we consider Pickens-Adams to be close to a wash, then you would want Pickens (younger) in 2025. For the rookies, I’ll go Harrison No. 1. I like the first two quarterbacks a lot, but wide receiver is a much more valuable position in our little game (even with 6-point TD passes).
Question 2
Early Keeper League question for you. Our League, heading into its 36th season, uses a TD-heavy scoring system and combines the TE/WR position. We are required to retain 4 keepers. My choices are QB T. Lawrence, RBs Kyren Williams, Pacheco, and Z.Moss, plus receivers Nacua, Kupp, and Kelce. I figure Williams, Pacheco, and Nacua are my first three. I'm torn between Kupp, Kelce and Moss as my 4th. I like Kupp's upside, as it would be insurance against Nacua going down, but would that be loading up too much on the Rams' offense?
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
If we’re going straight off the projections, I’ve got Moss a little higher than the veteran pass catchers, but he seems like a risky choice, with his projection coming from theory rather than what he’s done in recent years. I can’t guarantee he’ll even be Cincinnati’s top running back. Kelce will be 35 in October and seemingly is spending the offseason hosting game shows, making documentaries and podcasts, and traveling the globe to Taylor Swift concerts. Is he putting in the necessary work to remain the best tight end in the game? Kupp is 31, but I wouldn’t be opposed to putting in place the top 3 pieces in that LA offense. The Rams averaged 29.9 points in their final seven games last year (over 10 more than in their first 10). While that may seem like putting too many eggs in the Sean McVay basket, any week that Nacua or Kupp had a lousy game, it would make the other one seem more likely to be productive. Kupp, Nacua and Stafford played 10 full games together last year. Kupp finished under 40 yards in five of those games, and Nacua went over 100 yards in all but one of those weeks. Nacua finished under 40 yards twice, and Kupp in one of those games had his most productive game of the season – 7 catches for 148 yards and a touchdown. Nacua in those 10 games caught 60 passes for 980 yards and 4 TDs. Kupp in those 10 caught 57 passes for 684 yards and 5 TDs.
Question 3
Keeper TD dependent league question about Packer WR Jayden Reed. He is currently on my roster with Brandin Cooks. Last season Reed had 10 TDs (including 2 rushing). However, many of these scores occurred with both Watson and Musgrave injured. Additionally, Reed does not play in 2-receiver sets plus there are several other quality receivers with plenty of upside. Would you keep or trade him? There are other WR options in the draft, including Pickens, McLaurin, Godwin, Brown and Diontae Johnson
Howie Fishman (Hermosa Beach, CA)
While other receivers are available, the decision is still Reed vs. Cooks. I like Reed a lot more. He’s a lot younger, and there’s a chance he’ll be Green Bay’s best receiver over the next five years. With Cooks, you would be getting a 31-year-old receiver who happened to have some success around the goal line last year. Reed in his final 10 games last year was a top-20 receiver, averaging 4.5 catches, 50 receiving yards and 11 rushing yards (he’s really good on end-arounds), with 7 TDs in those 10 games. I think the uptick was tied more to the Packers figuring out how to use him and getting their offense dialed in, rather than others being injured. If not for injury problems his final season at Michigan State, Reed might have been a first-round pick. Cook in his final 13 games last year (after a slow start) was about 2 points worse per game (using PPR scoring), averaging 3.9 catches for 49 yards, with 8 TDs.
Question 4
Without giving up trade secrets, can you share with us some of the most obscure data research that leads to accurately predicting future player fantasy performance?
JEFF POWERS (Coral Springs, FL)
I think it’s useful to first agree on what the player did last year (and to a lesser extent, what he did in previous seasons). Then we can start trying to figure out whether he should be better, worse or about the same in the upcoming season. In this speculative business, opinions need to be supported by reasons. If a player was better or worse in the second half of last year, what was powering that? What do we know about the team’s offensive coordinator and other players? What have other similar players done in similar situations? What, in general, is a fair expectation for this kind of player? Typically you’re trying to lay out a version of what you think is most likely to happen, and then persuasively argue for it.
Question 5
I've really have enjoyed your magazine for over 30 years, it's always been the only mag. that I ever needed. But this year’s mag is very disappointing. You no longer have the top team and player stats in the back of the mag. You also got rid of the team individual player stats for each team. Instead you have 2024 player projections, which are pretty much useless to a lot of subscribers. Why change something that has been working for years? Please do better.
Tim Bixby (Reno, NV)
On team pages, I thought readers would prefer 2024 projections over 2023 stats – an expectation of what they’ll be, rather than a listing of what they were last year. But I haven’t received any thank yous, so it’s looking like I’m in the minority. On the back of the magazine stats, I haven’t heard much chatter about them in recent years, but it appears that a lot of readers like them. We have added them to the website (printed up just as they have been in the magazine in the past, in a pdf format). To access, click on “resources” in the main menu and pull down to “free-with-magazine content”. On that page, see the instructions in the “Fantasy Index Internet Extra” section.
Question 6
8 Team PPR League. I can keep up to two of these players, costing two rounds earlier than previous year. RB Jacobs (7th round), RB R.White (9th), WR/TE Dell (9th), WR/TE Kincaid (11th). When I look at the custom rankings and projected points, they favour keeping both RBs. When I look at all the players I think will be available after everyone designates their keepers Aug 30, I'm tempted to keep both WR/TEs, Dell and Kincaid. Ian Allen to the rescue, please and thank you.
Steven Schipper (Brampton, ON)
I would keep the two running backs. White is definitely your top option – I think he’ll be a top-10 running back, and you’re getting him in the seventh round. And I like Jacobs in the fifth round more than those pass catchers later on. (In leagues with designated tight ends, Kincaid would look compelling, but not so much so when combining wide receivers and tight ends into one pass-catching bucket. I think the strategy should be to lock down that harder-to-fill running back position, freeing you up to focus on pass catchers in the draft proper.
Question 7
I am wondering why Rico Dowdle is not getting any hype at all. He is competing with a complete has been in Zeke and Vaughn who in no way can carry the load. I feel like we can be missing at a top 15-24 RB in plain sight.
Ryan Klein (Tinley Park, IL)
Ezekiel Elliott can’t play anymore and Deuce Vaughn isn’t an NFL player. We’re agreed on that front. But I’m not certain Dowdle is the answer. He was similar last year to Tony Pollard, I guess. Dowdle ran for 361 yards in a change-of-pace role, averaging 4.1 per attempt. He scored 2 TDs rushing and 2 TDs on pass plays. But would it surprise you if the Cowboys signed Dalvin Cook before the end of the month?