In the grading system we use here, we work on both the micro and macro levels. That is, there are individual player projections, but they’re tied to expectations for the entire offense. If you want to increase the number of touchdowns for Xavier Worthy, as an example, that likely involves reducing the touchdowns for some combination of Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown. It’s all got to add up.
So as we’re working through the preseason games and processing the NFL developments each day, we’re adjusting both the big-picture expectations for each offense, and also the role of each player within that unit (we tend to work on a percentage share for each player).
As we near the end of the preseason, we’re starting to firm up our overall lay-of-the-land numbers. They play a big role in determining expectations for individuals, so it makes sense to trot them out once in a while.
Below find our expected touchdown totals for each team (just offensive touchdowns – these don’t include touchdowns scored on returns of kicks and turnovers). And for context, I’m also listing the totals for each of the last three years. That provides some sense of which offenses (we think) are getting better and worse, and whether the expectations in general are realistic.
We’ve got five offenses at the top, and not a lot of difference between them, with Detroit, Kansas City, San Francisco, Baltimore and Cincinnati all clocking in within a touchdown of 51.5 touchdowns (about 3 per week). We’ve got the Patriots and Panthers as the two dumpster fire offenses, and four others that are at least 4 TDs below the rest of the league – Steelers, Titans, Raiders, Giants.
In comparison to 2023, I’ve got 10 offenses finishing with fewer touchdowns, and those teams are tagged with black dots. That might make me seem like an optimist (in an average year, close to half of the teams should be worse) but it was a low-scoring year last season. I think scores in general will be up a little. (There’s also the dynamic of note knowing which teams early in the year will be suffering crippling injuries, with the entire season going up in smoke.)
We’ve got six teams improving by at least 28 percent, and they’re definitely in a top tier (no other offense is improved by more than 18 percent). Half of those teams are of the “nowhere to go but up variety” – Jets, Giants, Jets. The more notable risers are teams that should be in the hunt to win their divisions: Kansas City, Cincinnati, Atlanta.
These are key numbers. They’re tied with the individual player ratio numbers, powering our rankings. (Our revised Thursday numbers will be posted soon to the website.)
As usual with this kind of exercise, let me know where you think we’re off. But I’m feeling pretty good with these numbers at this point.
| PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | Diff |
| • Detroit | 35 | 52 | 57 | 52.5 | -8% |
| Kansas City | 53 | 59 | 37 | 52.2 | 41% |
| • San Francisco | 48 | 50 | 60 | 52.0 | -13% |
| • Baltimore | 40 | 33 | 53 | 50.7 | -4% |
| Cincinnati | 52 | 49 | 39 | 50.5 | 29% |
| LA Rams | 51 | 31 | 44 | 48.5 | 10% |
| • Buffalo | 56 | 50 | 51 | 48.0 | -6% |
| • Miami | 33 | 43 | 57 | 48.0 | -16% |
| Green Bay | 52 | 39 | 42 | 47.7 | 14% |
| Philadelphia | 45 | 57 | 46 | 47.7 | 4% |
| • Dallas | 55 | 52 | 50 | 45.3 | -9% |
| Houston | 29 | 28 | 37 | 43.5 | 18% |
| Indianapolis | 49 | 25 | 37 | 41.3 | 12% |
| Atlanta | 31 | 34 | 31 | 40.0 | 29% |
| Jacksonville | 26 | 41 | 39 | 39.4 | 1% |
| Seattle | 48 | 42 | 34 | 39.0 | 15% |
| LA Chargers | 56 | 41 | 35 | 38.6 | 10% |
| NY Jets | 34 | 28 | 18 | 38.6 | 114% |
| Denver | 36 | 29 | 36 | 38.0 | 5% |
| • Cleveland | 41 | 38 | 39 | 38.0 | -3% |
| Tampa Bay | 61 | 31 | 36 | 37.9 | 5% |
| • Washington | 34 | 33 | 39 | 37.5 | -4% |
| • New Orleans | 41 | 36 | 41 | 37.5 | -9% |
| Arizona | 50 | 32 | 35 | 37.4 | 7% |
| Chicago | 30 | 37 | 35 | 37.4 | 7% |
| • Minnesota | 44 | 48 | 37 | 36.6 | -1% |
| Pittsburgh | 33 | 28 | 29 | 32.5 | 12% |
| Tennessee | 46 | 33 | 30 | 32.5 | 8% |
| Las Vegas | 37 | 40 | 31 | 32.0 | 3% |
| NY Giants | 23 | 38 | 25 | 32.0 | 28% |
| Carolina | 31 | 33 | 20 | 27.6 | 38% |
| New England | 48 | 31 | 25 | 25.5 | 2% |
—Ian Allan