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Ask the Experts

What was the biggest surprise of Week 1?

Cousins, Likely, Watson make lists

ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp through the Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: What was Week 1's biggest surprise?

SCOTT PIANOWSKI

I knew Pittsburgh wasn't an easy draw for the Falcons, but I was shocked to see Kirk Cousins look so old and limited. Atlanta didn't want to use Cousins under center or in play action, and you can't survive like that long term. Perhaps Cousins needed more time with his rehab. Fantasy managers have reason to be worried about the Atlanta passing game, although it was nice to see how concentrated the route combinations were.

Pianowski has been with Yahoo Sports since 2008, covering a variety of sports. On the rare occasions when the computer is turned off, he enjoys word games, poker, music, film, game theory, and a variety of condiments. He lives in suburban Detroit. Pianowski was inducted into the FSWA Hall of Fame in 2021.

JASON WOOD

The overall poor quarterbacking stood out. While it was surprising and frustrating, perhaps it shouldn't have been. In recent years, Week 1 had become steadily worse for passing output, likely because teams have nearly all fully embraced the idea of keeping key players out of preseason games. That leads to the early weeks of the regular season being more like dress rehearsals, and the passing game is more nuanced than running the ball. The good news is that the trend should quickly normalize, and this week's quarterback debacles may provide a window of opportunity in home leagues if you can find frustrated leaguemates panicked and ready for the impulsive move.

Wood is Senior Editor at Footballguys.com and has been with the company since its start in 2000. For more than 20 years, Footballguys has provided rankings, projections, and analysis to help fantasy managers dominate their leagues.

SCOTT SACHS

The Browns started well, but self-imploded, making mistake after mistake. After 300 days of not playing in an NFL game, Deshaun Watson vs. the Cowboys was just 24/45, 169 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 3.7 yards per attempt, 51.1 passer rating. Amari Cooper dropped a long pass for a probable TD that would have been Watson's best throw of the day. He was sacked 6 times, pressured relentlessly, plus the offense had 7 penalties (11 overall). The blame doesn't end with Watson; Browns gave up a punt return TD, failed to line up correctly multiple times, played backups at offensive tackle and couldn't block Dallas defense, etc. Since Watson's arrival, he has been hurt more than he's played--and when he has played, he's been late with the ball, holds the ball too long mostly because he fails to recognize when receivers break open, doesn't throw downfield very well, and has not been an effective runner. One game does not a season make, but the continued regression at the QB position must not continue. Browns have built up Watson--he's now a team Captain, put a huge picture on Stadium, etc.--and have made every excuse for him. But the disastrous trade for him and the stubborn refusal to move off of him has brought the entire franchise to a crisis.

With 2 perfect seasons and multiple league championships to his credit, Scott Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, featuring LIVE Talk & Text Advice. He is a 3-time winner of the Fantasy Index Experts Auction League, as well as a previous winner of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll.

LUKE WILSON

I was really impressed with the Buccaneers offense, and Baker Mayfield in particular. With how the Seahawks offense sagged in 2023 after the departure of then-QBs coach/passing game coordinator Dave Canales, I definitely had Mayfield and this whole Tampa unit regressing a bit post-Canales. That may have been wrong; after closing 2023 playing possibly the best football of his tumultuous career, Mayfield probably played just about the best game of his career in the opener (although this was not his first, not his second - but his fourth career game with 4 TD passes to zero interceptions). It's one game, it was the Commanders, caveat caveat, etc. - but I'm prepared to mark this whole Tampa offense back up to their list price as of the end of 2023 if Mayfield takes it to the Lions here in Week 2.

Wilson is a Fantasy Index contributor who also hosts the FI Podcast and weighs in with fantasy advice regularly in the FI Discord server. He's not the former Seahawks tight end, but he is the proud father of two large boys.

DAVID DOREY

Sadly, I was surprised to see that the Carolina Panthers are destined for yet another horrible season. Bryce Young showed zero improvement from last year despite being surrounded by much better receiving talent and better coaching. The rushing game was horrible and their decision to draft Jonathon Brooks knowing that he was still recovering from a torn ACL injury looks painfully miscalculated. Diontae Johnson did not become bad overnight. Perhaps they'll improve over the season but if it appears so, it is more likely that opponents won't prepare to face what is still the worst team in the NFL. And all fantasy value here is mediocre at best.

Dorey co-founded The Huddle.com in 1997. He's ranked every player and projected every game for the last 26 years and is the author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. David has appeared on numerous radio, television, newspaper and magazines over the last two decades.

KEN HOLIZNA

Isiah Likely surprised me, along with a lot of other fantasy managers. Likely’s consensus PPR draft position was 171 overall, TE-18 and was only rostered by 10.5 percent of teams. He was available in the last couple of rounds in most drafts if drafted at all. I think moving forward Likely is more fool's gold than real gold. Mark Andrews was coming off possible injuries from a car accident, and was not used much. I don’t see this ending well once he is fully recovered. The Ravens offense with Lamer Jackson has never really supported two premium WR’s, let alone two TE’s. Even though Likely is similar in size to Aaron Hernandez I don’t see this offense functioning like that Patriots offense. The system is different, the style of QB play is different, the coaching philosophy is different. Yes, we need to chase upside but at what cost? I am not saying Likely is not talented because he is. What I am saying is as long as Andrews is healthy you are chasing fantasy fools gold, not fantasy real gold.

I have to chime in on the Minnesota Vikings who moved up four spots this week in the NFL team rankings. Don't let Sam Darnold’s 12 for 12 in his start to the game fool you. He has not all of a sudden figured this QB thing out. Aaron Jones has not found the fountain of youth and is going to carry this team in his back. Darnold is very much a gunslinger like Cousins was, but without the accuracy, tools and moxie to win. The Vikings by Week 5 will be scrambling to find a capable QB that can try to steady the ship and keep it from sinking. I have held on to Sam Darnold for too long, in too many dynasty leagues to ever trust him again.

Holizna is a 29-year fantasy football enthusiast and founder of Faith-Family-Fantasy Football in 2019, a family-friendly, faith-based, G-rated fantasy football platform. Rankings contributor to the 2023 Fantasy Index magazine. Find him on Twitter @holihandicapper

SAM HENDRICKS

The terrible performances of the top tight ends. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Dalton Kincaid averaged 4 points apiece. Seriously...add in Evan Engram and David Njoku and we have a ton of TEs who bombed in Week 1. Andrews does not look fully recovered from his past injury, Kelce looked slower, Kincaid was poorly utilized. Njoku is hurt and has a terrible quarterback and Engram well I can't figure that one out. So will it continue? I am afraid so. Not looking like the year of the tight end. Especially harmful in the TE-premium leagues where they get 1.5 PPR.

Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 30-year fantasy football veteran who participated in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). He won the Fantasy Index Open in 2013 and 2018.

ANDY RICHARDSON

Maybe not the biggest surprise, since I did have them as a bottom-rung defense, but I kind of figured Washington would be a little bit better than the clown show they put on the field at Tampa Bay. Dan Quinn is a defensive-minded head coach, right? It was embarrassing. And on offense, they threw one pass in the direction of far and away their best receiver (Terry McLaurin, for those who need help) the entire first half. On a more positive note, it was nice to see Jameson Williams finally looking a little like the player he was in college. A slight negative, I suppose, for the guys drafted far earlier, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, but that won't continue (and I think we'll see them bounce back big this week).

Richardson has been a contributing writer and editor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and www.fantasyindex.com since 2002. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual experts draft and auction leagues since their inception. He writes a weekly gambling newsletter, Index Bets, during the NFL season and also previews all the games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays.

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