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Factoid

Revised Dolphins

Can Miami receivers survive without Tua?

I don’t think we’re seeing Tua Tagovailoa again anytime soon. I don’t know that he’ll be playing again this season. And I expect that will be showing up in reduced production for their wide receivers.

There have been five games in the Mike McDaniel era that Tua Tagovailoa didn’t start, and another (a Thursday nighter in Cincinnati) where he missed most of the game. Neither Tyreek Hill nor Jaylen Waddle caught a touchdown in any of those six games. (The Dolphins have gone 1-5 without their quarterback, with the lone win against a lesser Jets team at the end of 2022.)

In 31 starts with Tua, Hill has caught 22 touchdowns. Waddle has caught 12 touchdowns in 29 games with Tua the last two years.

The differences in catches and yards aren’t as severe.

Hill actually has averaged slightly more targets in games without Tua. In his six no-Tua games the last two years, he’s averaged 7 catches for 89 yards. He’s averaged 7 catches for 105 yards with Tua in the lineup (averaging 2.4 more yards per catch).

With Waddle, he’s averaged 4.8 catches for 78 yards in 29 games with Tua. He’s averaged 3.7 catches for 55 yards in the other six games (averaging almost 1.2 fewer yards per catch).

TYREEK WITH & WITHOUT TUA
YearOppResultTgtNoYardsAvgTD
2022N.E.W 20-71289411.750
2022at Balt.W 42-38131119017.272
2022Buff.W 21-19423316.50
2022at Cin.L 15-271410160160
2022at NYJL 17-4077476.710
2022Min.L 16-24151217714.750
2022Pitt.W 16-101377210.290
2022at Det.W 31-27141218815.670
2022at Chi.W 35-328714320.431
2022Cle.W 39-1765448.81
2022Hou.W 30-15968514.170
2022at S.F.L 17-3314914616.221
2022at LACL 17-231048120.251
2022at Buff.L 29-32139697.671
2022G.B.L 20-266410325.750
2022at N.E.L 21-23745513.750
2022NYJW 11-6522311.50
2022at Buff.L 31-34157699.860
2023at LACW 36-34151121519.552
2023at N.E.W 24-17954081
2023Den.W 70-2011915717.441
2023at Buff.L 20-48535819.330
2023NYGW 31-169818122.631
2023Car.W 42-2110616327.171
2023at Phil.L 17-3115118881
2023N.E.W 31-17138112141
2023at K.C.L 14-21108627.750
2023L.V.W 20-13111014614.61
2023at NYJW 34-1312910211.331
2023at Was.W 45-157515731.42
2023Ten.L 27-28546115.250
2023Dall.W 22-2014999110
2023at Balt.L 19-561267612.670
2023Buff.L 14-211378211.711
2023at K.C.L 7-26856212.41
2024Jac.W 20-1712713018.571
2024Buff.L 10-31632480
WADDLE WITH & WITHOUT TUA
YearOppResultTgtNoYdsAvgTD
2022N.E.W 20-7546917.31
2022at Balt.W 42-38191117115.62
2022Buff.W 21-196410225.50
2022at Cin.L 15-27523919.50
2022at NYJL 17-4043237.70
2022Min.L 16-2410612921.50
2022Pitt.W 16-10548822.00
2022at Det.W 31-279810613.32
2022at Chi.W 35-32758517.01
2022Cle.W 39-17546616.50
2022Hou.W 30-151058517.00
2022at S.F.L 17-335199.00
2022at LACL 17-23423115.50
2022at Buff.L 29-327311438.01
2022G.B.L 20-266514328.61
2022at N.E.L 21-23535217.30
2022NYJW 11-655448.80
2022at Buff.L 31-34734414.70
2023at LACW 36-34547819.50
2023at N.E.W 24-17648621.50
2023at Buff.L 20-48544611.50
2023NYGW 31-16105357.01
2023Car.W 42-2197517.31
2023at Phil.L 17-31666310.50
2023N.E.W 31-1712712117.31
2023at K.C.L 14-21634214.00
2023L.V.W 20-13845513.80
2023at NYJW 34-138811414.30
2023at Was.W 45-15855210.40
2023Ten.L 27-28867913.20
2023NYJW 30-09814217.81
2023Dall.W 22-20415050.00
2023at K.C.L 7-26523115.50
2024Jac.W 20-175510921.80
2024Buff.L 10-31444110.30

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index