The Packers are favored by 3 (with an over-under of 48), and it should really be more.
Certainly their offense will be piling up stats, with the Rams being a lesser team riddled with injuries. Los Angeles ranks next-to-last in yards and points allowed, with every opponent scoring at least 3 TDs. Even the lowly Bears. The Packers won’t have Christian Watson but have more than enough weaponry to consistently drive the ball against this opponent. Despite not having its starting quarterback for two games, Green Bay ranks 3rd in yards and 6th in scoring.
Jordan Love is 0-2 as a starter, completing fewer than 60 percent in both games, with 4 interceptions. But this looks like a get-right game. The Rams have about the worst pass defense in the league, with opponents averaging a league-high 9.1 yards per attempt against them, with a passer rating over 122. Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy averaged 279 passing yards against this defense, with 3 TD passes each. Love can do that. He heated up nicely in the fourth quarter against a much stronger Minnesota defense. Love averaged 264 passing yards in his final 11 games last year, with just over 2 TDs per week. Those kind of stats look reasonable. He’s still got the knee injury in the rearview mirror, so probably no running.
Christian Watson (ankle) is out for a few weeks, and that makes the remaining trifecta of receivers look a lot more appealing – with the probability of them getting the ball in their hands going up. Jayden Reed is a baller regardless; he’s gone over 135 yards in both of the games Love started, with 3 TDs. He’s also unusually good on end-arounds, rushing for 91 yards in four games (including one of those touchdowns). He’s starting to look like a top-10 receiver (certainly this week). Dontayvion Wicks normally serves as more of a fourth receiver, but he’s looking like a viable starter this week, with more certainty he’ll be getting some opportunities. There’s a certain connection between him and Love; they connected on a long touchdown in the preseason, and Wicks caught fire against Minnesota, with 5 catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs. He seems to have more upside than Romeo Doubs, who’s caught 12 passes but hasn’t caught any of the team’s 8 touchdowns. In two games with Love, Doubs has caught 8 passes for 89 yards. With Love on a heater in the second half of last year, Doubs caught touchdowns in only 2 of the last 9 games. For all three of these guys, the matchup looks killer. The Rams have allowed 8 TD passes, and all but one have gone to wide receivers.
Tucker Kraft looks like an up-and-coming tight end. The Packers also have Luke Musgrave (who was drafted even earlier a year ago) but they seem to have settled on Kraft as their preferred guy. He’s playing a lot more, and he’s caught over twice as many passes. Kraft came up big against Minnesota, with 6 catches for 53 yards and a touchdown, plus a 2-point conversion. Those two scoring catches are evidence that Love has some trust in him around the goal line.
Josh Jacobs has been just OK. While he ran for 151 yards against a poor Colts defense, he’s run for only 43 and 51 yards the last two games. He hasn’t scored. But this looks like a week for him to pay some dividends. The Rams rank last in run defense, allowing over 130 yards in every game. Even D’Andre Swift put up numbers against them. Jacobs looks like a middle-of-the-pack guy for receiving purposes; he’s caught 6 passes for 47 yards in his two games with Love.
If we’re getting into ranking the No. 2 running backs, Emanuel Wilson should be up there this week. On the field, he hasn’t been much different than Jacobs, averaging 4.6 per attempt. He’s averaging 33 rushing and 9 receiving yards, and production should be up in this one.
Brayden Narveson is living on borrowed time, with 4 missed field goals. He’s not good enough. The Packers worked out two possible replacements on Tuesday. But if Naverson sticks around (and we’ll assume as much for now), he’ll definitelye be getting on the field some. With the Rams not stopping anyone, they’ve allowed only 7 field goal attempts, a bottom-10 number, but almost 8 points per week overall.
The Packers Defense looks like an above-average option. It’s currently got 13 sacks (a top-10 number), along with 8 interceptions (tying for the league high). But most of those stats have come against young quarterbacks who don’t know what they’re doing (Anthony Richardson, Will Levis). Matthew Stafford has more ability to recognize pressure, and he’s thrown only 2 interceptions.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 5 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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