Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is less preseason action resulting in more regular season injuries? Preparing for Drake Maye. Injury replacements for Rashee Rice and Jonathan Taylor. And more.
Question 1
Is it my imagination, or have we seen a higher number of hamstring/soft tissue leg injuries to WRs this year? Is the “sit for preseason games” the reason? Should we prioritize RBs in the early rounds of next year’s fantasy drafts?
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
Typically when I’m putting together my projections, my tendency is to assume the vast majority of wide receivers will stay healthy and play the full season. They operate away from the fray. Only if there are guys with well documented injury histories (like Deebo) do I discount them. This approach might be flawed, with the numbers showing the injury likelihood at the position isn’t all that different than at QB and RB. But you asked specifically about receivers and early-season soft-tissue injuries. I’m not going to spend the day picking through the injury reports of the last 20 years, but there are some big-picture numbers we can look at. In the first four weeks of the season, there have been 36 wide receivers who’ve caught passes who didn’t play in all of their teams’ first four games. This includes both players who got hurt (Puka, Kupp, Deebo) and guys being brought in (some of practice squads) to replace them. We can then compare those numbers to what’s happened in previous seasons. I notice that if we look at the stats from 15 and 20 years ago, the tendency was for wide receivers to stay healthier. In the 2004 season, there were only 24 wide receivers who caught passes who didn’t play in all of the first four games. Almost twice as many such receivers in the season five years ago (and with those guys catching over twice as many touchdowns).
| MISSING GAMES IN SEPTEMBER | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | No | G | Rec | Yds | TD |
| 2004 | 24 | 59 | 122 | 1,455 | 8 |
| 2009 | 27 | 64 | 149 | 1,714 | 9 |
| 2014 | 30 | 73 | 162 | 1,754 | 6 |
| 2019 | 46 | 109 | 230 | 2,945 | 21 |
| 2024 | 36 | 80 | 204 | 2,176 | 9 |
Question 2
Any insight into who benefits if the Patriots move to Drake Maye? Do any of the parts become usable in a fantasy lineup?
Brian Grzybowski (San Francisco, CA)
When they shift to Maye (and that should come before long), I think there will be an uptick in passing production. I think he’s got more ability to push it downfield, and more willingness to let it fly. With Jacoby Brissett, he’s more of a game manager who’s looking to settle for safer, shorter passes. Jack Doyle had an 80-catch season with Brissett as his quarterback. Hunter Henry had that big game in Week 2, and I remember David Njoku going over 70 yards in four of five games with Brissett in Cleveland in 2022. When the shift occurs, I’m thinking less tight ends and more wide receivers.
Question 3
Terrible week with injuries to Rice and Taylor. Who are your favorite buy-low targets at WR and RB?
Mitchell Ross (Westport, CT)
Injuries are reliable. It’s rare to play consecutive weeks without some notable player getting hurt. So it makes sense to constantly be churning and adjusting your roster, maximizing your chances of being the team that cashes in. That involves monitoring all of the backup running back situations around the league, regularly weighing the merits of the best available free agents against the value of the guys already on your roster. For these particular players, I think it will be Trey Sermon who steps in for the Colts. I have interest in him. I remembering him running real nice in that win over the Steelers last December, banging out 88 yards on 17 carries. I understand that he didn’t work out for the 49ers or Eagles, but he could be about to go on a nice little run here (and with Jonathan Taylor having had other ankle injuries, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sermon is in that role for a month). With Anthony Richardson being inexperienced and erratic, I expect they’ll be feeding Sermon plenty of carries. With Rashee Rice, I expect Kansas City will be plugging JuJu Smith-Schuster back in that role. He’s played there in the past. JuJu in 2022, in fact, was eerily similar to Rashee in 2023. Both players caught 77 percent of the passes thrown their way, and both averaged 12 yards per catch. Rice caught 79 passes for 938 yards; JuJu finished with 1 fewer pass and 5 fewer yards. Smith-Schuster was pivotal in the Super Bowl comeback against the Eagles; I think all 7 of his catches were in the second half, and he was involved in the key penalty at the end that clinched it. I’m not suggesting JuJu is as good as Rice. Rice has progressed significantly and has a lot more playmaking ability. But barring a trade, JuJu is KC’s best replacement option. I think he’ll be back in that role, catching 5 passes in a lot of games. For the remainder of the season, he might finish 2nd on the team in receptions (behind Kelce). Xavier Worthy should score more touchdowns and make more big plays, but I don’t think they want to be using him much in the middle of the field (they’ve already got two of their notable receivers hurt, they don’t need a third).
Question 4
Who would be the proper handcuff for Kyren Williams? Rivers is getting the carries now, does that make him the heir apparent?
Gary Hamblin (Bloomington, IL)
Corum got 8 carries at the end of the Arizona game. Otherwise, his only playing time has come on special teams. Evidently, he’s not ready. Ronnie Rivers, on the other hand, has been playing some in each game. Through four weeks, he’s averaging 7 plays per game. But I think the decision making could be different if we’re talking about replacing Kyren Williams after an injury. If and when that happens, I think we’ll probably see both backs getting some chances, with the Rams then going from there. Long-term (as in, 2025 or 2026), I think Corum makes a lot more sense than Rivers. If we’re talking Williams missing the next month with a high-ankle sprain, then I think it would be up in the air between the two. They drafted Corum because they wanted to add another back who could step in and be a Williams-type guy. He’s presumably working towards being that guy in practice.
Question 5
Possible trade. I get Tee Higgins and Hockenson for Davante Adams. Thoughts?
Rick Cwik (Lemont, IL)
Hockenson is practicing. Fingers crossed, I’m thinking he’ll be pretty healthy coming back from the Week 6 bye. I will take that over Adams. Adams is 31, and I think we can assume he’ll be traded before long. I don’t envision him landing in a spot – Jets?, Steelers?, Saints? – where I would like him more than Hockenson. And Hockenson comes with the added plus of Tee Higgins perhaps remembering that he's in a contract yer.
Question 6
With "bye weeks" upon us, I need to DROP one of: Chase Brown or Jonathon Brooks ... any thoughts?
Michael David (nashville, TN)
Brooks isn't practicing. That makes it seem like the Panthers don't think he's going to be playing in the next month. (They could have triggered the 21-day window, with Brooks practicing with the team but not a member of the 53-man roster.) With that having not happened, it sure looks like they're planning on going with Hubbard and Sanders for the team being, with Brooks far more likely to shine in 2025 and beyond. So for the 2024 season, his value is far below Chase Brown's.
Question 7
What does your gut tell you will happen with C-Mac? I know that you can't put zero in your projections because there's a chance that he could come back. But it just seems like, in situations like this, the star player just never gets it dialed in when their season starts off rocky like this. Whether it's due to injuries, a holdout ... it just never quite comes together. I'm thinking that hopes of 2023-like stats upon his return (if he does indeed return at all) need to be tossed out the window. What do you think?
Roland Deschain (IL)
McCaffrey averaged 21 touches per game last year, 2nd-most in the league (behind Kyren Williams). I don’t think that’s happening. It wouldn’t really make sense, with the team sitting on another capable back (Jordan Mason). I would think the 49ers would be playing the long game. I expect they’re hoping he’ll be in uniform for the second half of the season, and that they can work him into top form for the playoffs. If we’re drafting running backs for the second half of the season, he’d be one of the first 10 I would pick, with a chance he’ll be one of the top-5 stat producers.
Question 8
The rankings for my league scoring have Nix and Flacco (if starting) right next to each other. I need to pick one or the other. Thank you for your wisdom.
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
Anthony Richardson practiced some on Wednesday, so I’m thinking he’ll be starting. And even if Flacco gets the nod, I’d probably go with Nix anyway. With the Jaguars sitting at 0-4, I think they’re going to be playing hungry, looking for that first win. Nix threw for only 60 yards on Sunday, but he was showing progress in his previous two games, looking like he was picking things up. And Nix will run a bunch, giving him a big head start.