N.Y. JETS (vs. Hou.): A New York win is certainly in play, with the Texans playing without their two leading receivers.
This snippet was first published on October 30.
The Jets opened as a 1.5-point favorite, with an over-under of 42 points. But big numbers look unlikely. Like Houston, New York has offensive line issues (among other flaws) factoring in them coming up short in five straight games that potentially could have been won (four close losses, and they had a lead at Pittsburgh). The idea that New York will score about 22 points seems a little high, with the Texans having a good defense with a strong pass rush. Only one defense has allowed fewer yards. The Vikings, Bills and Packers all finished with fewer than 280 net yards against this defense, and all have better offenses than the Jets.
It’s an average matchup for Breece Hall, with Houston ranking 13th against the run. But the Jets don’t seem to have the manpower or commitment to put together a viable ground game. Despite having one of the top few tailbacks in the game (Hall) along with one of the very best backups (Braelon Allen) they rank only 30th in rushing, down at 86 yards per week. They ran for only 54 yards at Pittsburgh, where Tyrone Tracy just ran for 145 yards on Monday night. There’s been a slight uptick recently, with Hall averaging 77 rushing and 56 receiving yards in the three games since the coaching change, but it’s just not there overall. He’s scored one touchdown in his last five games. Hall looks good, but not like a difference maker. Selling point here is that the Jets will probably want to run a healthy amount to avoid getting their quarterback killed. And the Jets have moved away from the committee approach. Since the coaching switch, Allen has averaged only 15 rushing yards (but did score a touchdown last week). If the Jets are averaging 86 rushing yards and the Texans are allowing 116, let’s split the difference and put them down for 101. The Jets have scored only 5 rushing touchdowns, while the Texans have allowed only 4.
Of the 20 touchdowns allowed by Houston, 16 of them have come on passes. Aaron Rodgers has that going for him. The Jets similarly have scored 13 of their 18 touchdowns on passes, making it seem like whatever they’re scoring probably will be coming through the air. But Houston has a top-5 pass rush, which could be an issue. It’s also allowing a league-low 53 percent completions. Rodgers has played against two other top-5 pass rushes (Denver, Minnesota) and struggled for most of those games. The Texans have held Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence under 180 passing yards. Jordan Love is playing a lot better than Rodgers right now and finished with only 220 yards (albeit with 3 TDs). Sam Darnold went for only 181 yards but managed 4 TDs. The Jets are currently averaging 242 passing yards, but probably 20 under that is the most to hope for. And you’re hoping for 2 TDs rather than planning on it.
With a lesser passing projection, expectations should be lowered for the wide receivers. Garrett Wilson looks like the top guy; he seems to be better than Davante Adams right now – younger and more athletic. In their two games together, the target shares have been similar (Wilson holding a 17-15 edge the last two weeks). But Wilson has done more with his looks – 10 for 174 yards, versus 7 catches for only 84 yards for Adams. No touchdowns for either in those games. We’re ranking both lower than usual, with Wilson higher.
Allen Lazard didn’t play last week and didn’t practice on Tuesday, making it seem like he won’t be available. He’s caught a team-high 5 TDs, so his absence makes Wilson and Adams look more appealing. Mike Williams played most of the snaps in that Lazard spot last week (on the field for over half of the game) but without even an incompletion thrown in his direction.
Tyler Conklin has scored in back-to-back games, and the touchdown last week was impressive – in a tight window with a guy on him. We’ll take that as evidence Rodgers has some trust in him. But Conklin previously hadn’t scored in 26 straight games. He’s averaged 4 catches for 36 yards in his last six games, but here he’s working against a defense that’s allowed a league-low 21 completions to tight ends (2.6 per game).
The Jets today played Greg Zuerlein on injured reserve. With his missed kicks factoring prominently in three losses, he may have played in his last NFL. The Jets have signed Riley Patterson and Spencer Shafer to their practice squad, and one of them on Thursday will fill the role of being that Jets kicker that you don’t want to be counting on.
The Jets Defense should post some of the best pass rush numbers. Only five teams have more sacks this year, while only four offenses have allowed more sacks than the Texans. C.J. Stroud has thrown only 4 interceptions, but he’ll be working without his two leading receivers. The Jets were able to effectively get after him late last season, harassing him into his worst game as a pro (10 of 23 for 91 yards, with 4 interceptions, before being knocked out with a concussion in the fourth quarter). Xavier Gipson has a couple of punt returns over 30 yards.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 9 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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