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Ask the Experts

In a midseason draft, who's the No. 1 overall pick?

Hail to the King

ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp through the Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: In a midseason fantasy draft, who should be the No. 1 overall pick?

SCOTT PIANOWSKI

As much as we get tantalized by upside, floor means a lot too. And nobody has a more sturdy floor than Derrick Henry. It feels like he has 100 rushing yards and a touchdown in his back pocket the moment a game starts, with the potential for more. He's in a safe offensive infrastructure and the automatic button at the goal line. Henry also has an historic trend of getting better month by month. Good luck, defenses.

Pianowski has been with Yahoo Sports since 2008, covering a variety of sports. On the rare occasions when the computer is turned off, he enjoys word games, poker, music, film, game theory, and a variety of condiments. He lives in suburban Detroit. Pianowski was inducted into the FSWA Hall of Fame in 2021.

JASON WOOD

Well, it wouldn’t be a wide receiver. As is often the case, the fantasy gods have a way of punishing consensus viewpoints, and this year—when wide receivers were widely viewed as the must-have first-round picks—things are looking terrible. On a points-per-game basis, only four receivers rank in the Top 10, and three of them have already missed significant time this season. Nico Collins is the 4th overall player and is on IR, Chris Godwin is 6th and out for the season, Justin Jefferson is 7th, and Cooper Kupp is 8th. Sitting atop the fantasy rankings is Derrick Henry, who is redefining what it means to be a 30-year-old running back, with Saquon Barkley closely behind him. In most drafts, one of these two players would go first overall. I’m giving the edge to Barkley because he’s less game-script dependent and can contribute as a receiver, whereas Henry’s value primarily comes from his ground game performance.

Wood is Senior Editor at Footballguys.com and has been with the company since its start in 2000. For more than 20 years, Footballguys has provided rankings, projections, and analysis to help fantasy managers dominate their leagues.

IAN ALLAN

I’m a Derrick Henry fan. I think he’s interested in getting that second 2,000-yard season, and I think they’re going to help him get it. I think it’s something the OL and the team wants as well. Henry also has a nice streak of games with a touchdown going. I think John Harbaugh cares about that stuff. There was that weird game a few years ago, when he had his regulars on the field running plays in the final seconds because he wanted to keep a streak of 40-something games with the team rushing for 100-plus yards intact -- a streak nobody knew about or cared about. Plenty of other good candidates, but I like Henry.

Allan co-founded Fantasy Football Index in 1987. Since that time, he’s written and edited most of the content published in the magazines, newsletters and at www.fantasyindex.com. Allan is a member of the FSGA Fantasy Sports Hall of Fame and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame.

DAVID DOREY

My No. 1 overall fantasy pick would easily be Saquon Barkley who has been electric with the Eagles and still cranks out major fantasy points weekly despite Jalen Hurts "tush-pushing" many of the rushing touchdowns. Three of his final four games of the fantasy season are at home and his lone road game is in Washington that should turn into a shootout. The only bad thing about Barkley is that he wasted six years of his career playing behind one of the worst offensive lines on a team that had no weapons of any note other than him. Imagine six years of being an Eagle.

Dorey co-founded The Huddle.com in 1997. He's ranked every player and projected every game for the last 26 years and is the author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. David has appeared on numerous radio, television, newspaper and magazines over the last two decades.

SCOTT SACHS

Saquon Barkley is an easy choice for me. With his last 3 straight games over 100 yards, he's over 900 yards rushing so far on the season, while averaging around 28 fantasy points per game. His monster match-up last week against Jacksonville, where he reverse hurdled his way to every sports highlight show in the country, was the 2nd time this year he's hit the 40 mark. Running backs gain extra value as the weather turns colder and more inclement, too. Additionally, Barkley has some questionable defenses remaining on the schedule to include the crappy Cowboys this week, even crappier Carolina later on--and it should be duly noted--Dallas again in Week 17, the week most leagues have their Super Bowl. As long as he stays healthy, fantasy owners can ride him to a championship.

With 2 perfect seasons and multiple league championships to his credit, Scott Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, featuring LIVE Talk & Text Advice. He is a 3-time winner of the Fantasy Index Experts Auction League, as well as a previous winner of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll.

KEN HOLIZNA

There has been an unexpected transition this season. The quarterbacks and wide receivers are not going crazily unchecked in defensive schemes. Looks like the tide may be turning back as history is repeating back to the days of running backs being kings (no pun intended King Henry). I think if I re-ranked the top 12, I may have seven running backs. With that said I am struggling with the top tier. I have landed on Saquon Barkley who looks like last year's Christian McCaffrey in every way including his involvement in this offense. It was hard not to rank Derrick Henry first because watching him run this year in this offense, I have rekindled my man crush on him. He is even getting more receptions showing athleticism to go along with his brute strength, in this King-friendly offense, but not enough to rank him over Barkley in PPR. In a standard league Henry is King (pun intended)!

Holizna is a 29-year fantasy football enthusiast and founder of Faith-Family-Fantasy Football in 2019, a family-friendly, faith-based, G-rated fantasy football platform. Rankings contributor to the 2023 Fantasy Index magazine. Find him on Twitter @holihandicapper

ANDY RICHARDSON

The best-ball teams I drafted early last summer are doing best, because at that point I was enamored of Derrick Henry with the Ravens. I don't know what changed, but by the end of August I was cooler on him. My mistake. What an incredible back he is. It's rare these days when a running back with such a small passing game role can be so dominant -- a true throwback. He's the guy, with Saquon Barkley a close second. If I was opting for a wide receiver, it'd be either Jefferson or Chase, a pair of seemingly uncoverable No. 1s in offenses that love to throw the ball.

Richardson has been a contributing writer and editor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and www.fantasyindex.com since 2002. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual experts draft and auction leagues since their inception. He writes a weekly gambling newsletter, Index Bets, during the NFL season and also previews all the games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays.

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