There’s more separation between teams this year, or so it seems. There are nine teams that have won only two games entering Week 10, which is about 50 percent more than in a typical season.
Nine such teams, in fact, ties as the most ever. There were also nine in 2006, and five other times since the move to 32 teams, there have been eight teams with only two wins after Week 9. The average since 2022 is 6.3.
| Number of 2-win teams after Wk 9 | |
|---|---|
| Year | No |
| 2002 | 5 |
| 2003 | 7 |
| 2004 | 3 |
| 2005 | 8 |
| 2006 | 9 |
| 2007 | 7 |
| 2008 | 7 |
| 2009 | 8 |
| 2010 | 7 |
| 2011 | 8 |
| 2012 | 4 |
| 2013 | 7 |
| 2014 | 6 |
| 2015 | 7 |
| 2016 | 4 |
| 2017 | 4 |
| 2018 | 6 |
| 2019 | 8 |
| 2020 | 8 |
| 2021 | 6 |
| 2022 | 5 |
| 2023 | 5 |
| 2024 | 9 |
Two of those teams start off today’s slate in Germany, with 2-7 Carolina meeting the 2-7 Giants. Other teams with only two wins: Raiders, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Dolphins, Saints and Patriots.
For fantasy purposes, this should result in an uptick in mismatches in the second half of the season.
At the same time, if history is any indication, some of these teams won’t be nearly as bad in the second half of the season.
Consider, for example, the 82 other teams since 2002 that have had two wins after Week 9. Twenty-four of those teams had winning records the rest of the way, and another 12 went 4-4 in their final eight games. So that’s 44 percent of those 82 teams putting together non-losing records in the second half of the season.
Three teams in the last four years, in fact, teams that started with two wins ended up winning enough games to finish the season with a winning record (the Dolphins in 2021, and Detroit and Pittsburgh in 2022). The Lions are one of the hot teams in the league right now, and this group got its start with a second-half turnaround in Dan Campbell’s first season.
Five other teams in the last 20 years have managed to finish 8-8 after a 2-6 start. It’s not common, but it happens. Those teams in the chart below are tagged with black dots (with the three teams finishing with winning records have double dots).
| TWO-WIN TEAMS (AFTER WEEK 9) THAT WENT AT LEAST .500 IN REMAINING GAMES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Start | End | Total |
| 2002 | Seattle | 2-6-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-9-0 |
| 2002 | Minnesota | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2003 | NY Jets | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2003 | Pittsburgh | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2005 | Baltimore | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2006 | • Pittsburgh | 2-6-0 | 6-2-0 | 8-8-0 |
| 2006 | • Tennessee | 2-6-0 | 6-2-0 | 8-8-0 |
| 2006 | Houston | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2006 | Miami | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2007 | Cincinnati | 2-6-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-9-0 |
| 2008 | San Francisco | 2-6-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-9-0 |
| 2009 | • Tennessee | 2-6-0 | 6-2-0 | 8-8-0 |
| 2010 | Detroit | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2010 | San Francisco | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2011 | • Arizona | 2-6-0 | 6-2-0 | 8-8-0 |
| 2011 | Seattle | 2-6-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-9-0 |
| 2011 | Carolina | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2012 | Carolina | 2-6-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-9-0 |
| 2013 | • Pittsburgh | 2-6-0 | 6-2-0 | 8-8-0 |
| 2013 | NY Giants | 2-6-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-9-0 |
| 2014 | Atlanta | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2018 | Cleveland | 2-6-1 | 5-2-0 | 7-8-1 |
| 2018 | Buffalo | 2-7-0 | 4-3-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2019 | Tampa Bay | 2-6-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-9-0 |
| 2019 | Cleveland | 2-6-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2020 | LA Chargers | 2-6-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-9-0 |
| 2020 | Washington | 2-6-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-9-0 |
| 2020 | Dallas | 2-7-0 | 4-3-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2020 | NY Giants | 2-7-0 | 4-3-0 | 6-10-0 |
| 2021 | •• Miami | 2-7-0 | 7-1-0 | 9-8-0 |
| 2021 | Washington | 2-6-0 | 5-4-0 | 7-10-0 |
| 2022 | •• Detroit | 2-6-0 | 7-2-0 | 9-8-0 |
| 2022 | •• Pittsburgh | 2-6-0 | 7-2-0 | 9-8-0 |
| 2022 | Carolina | 2-7-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-10-0 |
| 2023 | Chicago | 2-7-0 | 5-3-0 | 7-10-0 |
| 2023 | NY Giants | 2-7-0 | 4-4-0 | 6-11-0 |
These numbers suggest two or three of these two-win teams will be going at least .500 the rest of the way. The Dolphins will probably be the favorites to headline that list, if they can keep Tua Tagovailoa healthy. The Giants have gotten three of their four games against the Commanders and Eagles out of the way.
—Ian Allan