CLEVELAND (at N.O.): When last we saw the Browns, they were scoring their only touchdown with 49 seconds left in a home loss to the Chargers. Forget that one for now, because while Los Angeles has one of the best defenses, the Saints have one of the worst.
This snippet was first published on November 13.
New Orleans ranks in the bottom 5 in yards allowed and bottom 10 in points, and most of that was before trading away Marshon Lattimore. They held Atlanta to just 17 points last week, but the Falcons rolled up 468 yards of offense in that one and also missed three field goals. The Browns probably aren’t put-together to enough to score more than 2 TDs, but they should finish with that many.
Nick Chubb hasn’t returned with much oomph, averaging 2.7 yards per attempt (42 carries, 113 yards), with a touchdown, in his three games. But some rust was to be expected coming off a devastating knee injury, and the last two of those were against two of the league’s best run defenses (Ravens, Chargers). Then there’s New Orleans (27th). The Saints are allowing 141 yards per game and 5.1 yards per attempt, with 14 touchdowns -- 11 in their last six games. They’re terrible, and a good situation for Chubb, with the bye providing an extra week of rest and recovery, to put up more respectable rushing numbers. The Browns have never used Chubb much as a receiver (for his career, he’s averaging about a catch and a half per game), and that hasn’t changed in his return (2 catches on 6 targets). Cleveland will give those opportunities to some combination of Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong; probably Ford, based on the last game (1 catch on 3 targets). But Chubb got 15 of 19 running back carries in that one, and should dominate touches again. If the Saints play defensively like they did in those home losses to the Bucs and Broncos a few weeks back, Chubb could pay off nicely. The Saints have allowed almost twice as many touchdowns on runs (14) as passes (8).
Jameis Winston lit up Baltimore (334 yards, 3 TDs), then struggled against the Chargers (235 yards, 1 TD of the meaningless variety, while taking 6 sacks and throwing 3 interceptions). This defense is more similar to that of the Ravens, severely lacking at cornerback (Lattimore gone, Paulson Adebo on IR and Kool-Aid McKinstry hurt) and with less pass rush besides (22 sacks). The Saints have allowed only 8 touchdown passes (nearly twice as many scoring plays on runs), which is a negative, but there should be some balance coming in the second half of the season, the way this secondary looks right now. Winston ran for 27 yards against the Chargers, but that’s not a big part of his game at this point (just 2 yards in the win over the Ravens). Winston was with the Saints the past four seasons, making 10 starts, so he knows his way around the stadium.
Cedric Tillman has had a remarkable run since the team traded away Amari Cooper, raising the question of what took so long. In his last three games he’s caught 21 passes for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns. He should keep it going here, given the Saints’ current deficiencies at cornerback. No touchdowns by Falcons starters last week, but both London and Mooney went over 95 yards, with 13 receptions for the duo. The schedule gets tougher for Tillman after this (Cleveland will play its next four against Denver, Kansas City and Pittsburgh twice), but nothing to worry about this week. Jerry Jeudy will be the other main wideout, and he’s also enjoyed a boost from the Cooper trade. Just 1 catch against Cincinnati, but 6 targets that week, and then 12 for 152 (on 19 targets) in his last two. A step behind Tillman, but looks viable as the No. 2. Elijah Moore is iffier, catching 8 balls against Baltimore’s league-worst pass defense, but just 3 for 28 (on 9 targets, which is both encouraging and disappointing) against the Chargers. Another serviceable day in PPR leagues is possible, but probably the fourth target in the passing game.
David Njoku has been reliably involved since before the quarterback change. He’s caught at least 5 balls four games in a row, and with 2 touchdowns. Winston is looking for him. Saints have only allowed 1 touchdown to the position, but as noted it’s a weakened secondary right now.
Dustin Hopkins has missed four kicks in his last four games; 3 field goals and an extra point. He’ll be kicking indoors this week, against an opponent that’s allowed a league-high 27 field goal attempts and also 22 extra points -- 8.8 per week to kickers.
The Browns Defense can get after quarterbacks; only eight teams have more sacks (27). It’s tied with the Raiders for the league’s fewest takeaways, however (5), and in Derek Carr it faces a quarterback who gets the ball out of his hands. He’s taken only 6 sacks in his seven games, while throwing 4 interceptions.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 11 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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