Finding top control pitchers can be a recipe for success in finding undervalued pitchers and lowering your team WHIP in 5x5 rotisserie-scoring leagues.
It’s never too early to prepare for your draft, and some of us draft fiends are already setting our draft dates for 2025 or even drafting now.
For nearly a decade, I contributed of series of offseason features at Rotoworld breaking down category sleepers at each of the 5x5 roto categories. Over 10 weeks, I will be providing a list of sleepers for each 5x5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Since the hot stove hasn’t heated up much yet, for the next few weeks we will focus on players in categories that are less based on opportunity and more based on skill. Other roto categories that are more dependent on opportunity, supporting cast, and batting order spot (R, RBI, SB) or team and manager (W, SV) will be discussed in the latter half of the 10-week series.
Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.
Fantasy managers, especially those new to the game, often have a bias toward ERA given that it’s the category most often quoted as we learn the game. Obviously, for 5x5 scoring leagues, WHIP is just as important, with some pitchers making a living on fantasy rosters for their WHIP contributions.
There’s an obvious and direct correlation between walks allowed and WHIP. Pitchers are unable to completely control their hits allowed with annual BABIP variance, but control and avoiding free passes is more in their hands. Here’s a look at eight WHIP sleepers for 2025.
Mixed League Players
Cody Bradford, SP, Rangers
Converted from a swingman role in his rookie season, Bradford was a surprise rotation contributor early in 2024 while the rest of the Rangers starters got healthy. The team and fantasy managers got more than they bargained for, as Bradford was one of the top starters baseball through two weeks, going 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, and 17/2 K/BB over 19.1 innings. After missing almost the next four months with a ribcage injury, Bradford remained effective for the final two months with a 4.26 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 53/11 K/BB in 57 innings. The cumulative product was a viable 3.54 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 76.1 innings, and certainly something to build on in 2025.
The lack of innings and track record makes Bradford cheap in early drafting with an NFBC ADP of 317 in Draft Champions leagues, but the question is whether he can maintain last year’s numbers over a full season. He relies on smoke-and-mirrors with a 90 mph fastball, changeup, and three other pitches he uses for show. Bradford has also been extremely home run prone in the past, including a 1.8 HR/9 as a rookie, due in part to his extreme flyball rate. The home runs make the ERA highly volatile, but a 2.1 BB/9 in the minors shows that his 1.7 BB/9 over 132.1 MLB innings isn’t a fluke. He could be a solid end-game addition if you need to compensate for more erratic early pitching picks.
Bowden Francis, SP, Blue Jays
A late bloomer, Francis was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball down the stretch last season. The 28-year-old was nearly untouchable after joining the rotation in the second half with a 1.80 ERA, 0.60 WHIP and elite 58/8 K/BB in 65 innings. The difference for Bowden was clear, adding a highly effective split finger pitch to his arsenal that became his second most used offering. For the second consecutive year, Francis also showed a BB/9 near 2.0.
Like Bradford, there should be some hesitancy in drafting Francis due to his home run issues. He had a poor 1.5 HR/9 as a flyball pitcher last season, and his .211 BABIP is very likely to regress. Still, it’s tough to overlook the dominance from his second half performance, and the new pitch provides some explanation for his late-season surge. His ADP near 187 isn’t exactly cheap, but there’s still room to profit.
Nick Martinez, P, Reds
Used as a swingman again last season, Martinez’s outstanding season was somewhat under the radar. He threw a career-high 142.1 innings over 42 appearances, including 16 starts, but Martinez’s control showed drastic improvement at an elite 1.1 BB/9 with only 18 walks in 142.1 innings. Martinez has an impressive repertoire with six different pitches, and showed improvement almost across the board. The control was clearly the best of his career, but it didn’t exactly come out of nowhere with a career 1.7 BB/9 at Triple-A.
Matching last year’s control will be difficult, though it’s convincing that Martinez was able to avoid walks consistently for the entire year. He should fit in nicely for the Reds after accepting the qualifying offer, and his three-year stint in the majors since returning from Japan has shown a strong 3.31 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. With the possibility of a full-time starter role, his WHIP could make a bigger impact on fantasy teams.
Zebby Matthews, SP, Twins
The Twins never met a control pitcher they didn’t love, and Matthews is their latest project. The 2022 eighth-round pick was one of the breakout stars of the 2024 minor league season, with an insane 114/7 K/BB ratio over 97 innings between three levels. His pinpoint control resulted in a 2.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP prior to his MLB run. Unfortunately, Matthews had more challenges as a Twin, allowing 51 hits and 11 home runs in 37.2 innings to create a rough 6.69 ERA in 37.2 innings.
It's far too soon to conclude the stuff won’t play in the majors after Matthews’ debut. He has ample velocity with a fastball that averages 95 mph, and his slider and cutter are of MLB quality. Obviously, the key for Matthews will be keeping the ball down, an issue he shares with most of the Twins starting rotation. The control is elite already and was more than adequate (2.6 BB/9) during his debut. He’s a cheap risk with an ADP near 373.
Single-League Players
Braxton Ashcraft, SP, Pirates
A second-round pick in 2018, Ashcraft has often been overshadowed in the Pirates farm system by other top prospects like Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, and Bubba Chandler. Injuries have also been an issue holding Ashcraft back, but he’s on the cusp of helping. He’s been highly effective over the last two years, and most recently posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 77/12 K/BB in 73 innings between Double- and Triple-A.
The numbers indicate the 25-year-old right-hander is ready, and so does the stuff with a mid-90’s fastball, excellent slider, and curveball. The key will be staying on the field, as Ashcraft has thrown a total of 235 innings since he was drafted in 2018. His control profile shows a pitcher who could hit the ground running when he gets a chance.
Jakob Junis, P, Free Agent
Durability has been an issue for Junis lately, but he’s coming off the most effective season of his career between Milwaukee and Cincinnati. His six starts over 24 appearances are deceiving, as Junis was a bulk reliever for much of his time in Cincinnati and terrific in the role. He walked only three batters in 41 innings with the Reds, helping him post a 2.85 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 0.7 BB/9 with the team.
The transition in Cincinnati shows some slight adjustments, throwing more sinkers and fastballs. Though, it should be noted Junis was also excellent in Milwaukee between injuries with a 2.42 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 26 innings. Injuries have been an issue for Junis that have pushed him out of mixed league consideration, but the control is too good to look beyond with a career 2.3 BB/9 that’s only getting better.
Tom Harrington, SP, Pirates
Another Pirates control pitcher... Harrington was the 36th overall selection in the 2022 draft out of Campbell, and he’s come out firing as a pro. Over two seasons, Harrington has a 3.09 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and his was even better last season. Pitching mostly at Double- and Triple-A, Harrington had a 2.61 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 1.5 BB/9. He doesn’t have Ashcraft’s velocity but has shown a low-90’s fastball and excellent changeup.
The decline in strikeouts at Triple-A is a concern for Harrington, but he still managed to post a sub-2.0 BB/9 at Indianapolis. He’s one of several Pirates prospects who could have prominent roles next season and could be as ready as he’ll ever be as a backend starter.
Adam Mazur, SP, Marlins
We saw Mazur struggle in eight starts with the injury-plagued Padres last season before he was traded at the deadline to Miami in the Tanner Scott deal. Miami has been a factory for pitching, so the hope is that Mazur will find more success the next time around. The former second-round pick has been highly effective in the low minors, including a 1.95 ERA in six starts at Double-A last season, though he was roughed up at Triple-A hitter’s parks with a 6.20 ERA in 13 outings. Mazur did continue to show excellent control, however, with a 1.9 BB/9 in spite of too many balls leaving the yard.
Mazur has MLB-quality stuff with a fastball that averaged 95 mph and heavily-used slider that graded well during his debut. Keeping the ball in the park could be a challenge for the extreme flyball pitcher, but one made slightly easier by his roomy home ballpark. Mazur faces stiff competition for a rotation spot entering the year and could probably use more seasoning at Triple-A following last year’s struggles, though he could be a WHIP asset in NL-only leagues later in the year with a career 1.7 BB/9 in the minors to this point.
--Seth Trachtman