It's been an unusually good year for primetime games. I have my problems with the schedule-makers, and certainly it's not like they knew how entertaining Browns-Broncos would be, but there have been a lot more hits than misses this year. Including last night.
Right off the bat I have to mention Detroit's bold choice at the end of the game. With 43 seconds left in a tie game, the Lions passed up a 38-yard field goal to try and convert a fourth-and-1, enabling them to run the clock down before kicking the winning the field goal, rather than give Green Bay the ball back with 40 seconds left. I think teams would have kicked it, I don't know, 95 times out of 100? But Dan Campbell gambled, David Montgomery picked it up, and the Lions didn't have to sweat out a last-minute Packers drive. A bold choice that worked. Gotta respect it.
QUARTERBACKS
No one should underestimate the luck factor in this game we play. Jared Goff threw 3 TDs, having an outstanding week. But each short touchdown pass was preceded by his excellent running backs getting stopped on goal-line carries, which doesn't happen to Detroit a lot. Goff had a big day that could easily have been a 1 or no touchdown game. But more generally speaking, it's crazy to think that when the Rams traded Goff to the Lions in the Matthew Stafford deal, he was essentially supposed to be a veteran stopgap -- no one thought he'd actually be starting for Detroit three years later. And Detroit is 12-1 and if things go as expected they'll be hosting the NFC Championship game.
Jordan Love, in contrast, had the kind of game Goff could have had: 206 passing yards and just 1 touchdown pass. The fact he didn't have a second one is partly on him: Green Bay ran a beautiful play-action play early on that resulted in a wide-open Tucker Kraft, and Love badly overthrew him. And then he had a late score to Josh Jacobs erased by a questionable — ridiculous — flag. So: unlucky. But both teams were getting some pressure on the quarterbacks, with Goff working without Taylor Decker and Detroit (despite several key defenders being on IR) bringing some heat. It's underrated what the Lions have been doing defensively despite the players they're missing. A year ago they stuffed the run and got lit up via the pass. Right now they're really tough on both, allowing just 11 touchdown passes all season. Despite the higher-scoring game, benching Love made sense given the way Detroit's defense has played, and worked out last night.
RUNNING BACKS
Love's lesser day passing the ball sure worked out nicely for Josh Jacobs. If you were facing him in a must-win, you're staring at a rough deficit, but nice if he was on your side. (As noted, he had a receiving score wiped out by an absurd penalty.) We are longtime Jacobs fans and even we didn't imagine he'd have 1,300 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns right now. Green Bay's loss last night, incidentally, seems like a concern for those holding key Packers like Love and Jacobs. They are basically eliminated from winning the NFC North, with the only mystery whether they'll be the 5th or 6th seed in the conference. Being the 5th seed is probably preferable to the 6th, but might not be a huge difference (one will play at the South winner and one at the West). The Packers might well be in position to rest key players like Jacobs in Week 17.
As usual, great all-around numbers for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, with both scoring, catching 5-6 passes and finishing with 70-80 total yards. We don't want to be greedy but both guys could easily -- easily -- have had multiple touchdowns, that's the lone negative. But if you started either or both last night, you can't complain too much.
WIDE RECEIVERS
In a 34-31 game, obviously you were expecting a little more out of almost everyone. Instead, Green Bay did a nice job of directing the Lions away from Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the connection between Love and Jayden Reed was not happening. On Reed, we've discussed how the Packers spread the ball around, and indeed Reed has had 3 or fewer targets five times this year. Just 2 last night (officially one, but there was an early play where he drew a holding penalty), and he only played half the snaps. I don't really understand the thinking there, and since Green Bay lost, they can maybe wonder why Dontayvion Wicks played three quarters of the time instead. Wicks caught a couple of balls on Green Bay's final drive but was not a big factor. Christian Watson was instead the apple of Love's eye, with 114 yards on 7 targets. A costly lost fumble early on to kill one drive, but a bizarre flag late for offensive interference. The guy was running a route. Imagine if that call had somehow benefited Kansas City, the Internet would be losing its mind.
Watson is a guy I will pretty much never have on any of my fantasy teams (maybe best-ball), because he's just too unreliable. He's been healthy, at least, but caught 0-2 passes in half of his games. Unfortunately the same unreliability applies to Reed these days.
Strangely heavily targeted of late: Jameson Williams. He used to be a 1-2 catch per week guy. Now he's caught 5 passes three weeks in a row. No touchdowns in those games (maddeningly, he was scoring more when he was less involved) but a legit starter these days. As for St. Brown, what are you gonna do? He's not a guy you can bench. You keep running him out there and hope you're still alive in the playoffs when his next huge game comes.
Tim Patrick, instead, caught 2 TDs on benches last night. Those were opportunities that more often will go to St. Brown, or the running backs. The upcoming schedule (Buffalo, at Chicago, at San Francisco) has me thinking that that was definitely Patrick's best and last good game, but congrats if you have him in best-ball somewhere.
TIGHT ENDS
I was debating Tucker Kraft or Reed for a flex spot last night. Fortunately I chose Kraft, fueled by Romeo Doubs being out. Doubs has missed three games this season, and Kraft in those contests has caught 13 passes for 207 yards and 3 TDs. Should have had a fourth last night but Love blew a pretty easy throw. Kraft with Doubs out, nice choice. He's not a perfect starter, as those who started him for his 1-target zero at Chicago are aware, but 7 TDs out of a tight end is quite nice.
Sam LaPorta has hummed to life some lately. He has 6-7 targets in four straight games, with 2 TDs on Thanksgiving and 5 for 54 last night. I know, I know; disappointing based on where he was drafted this season. But I'm happy with the recent involvement, there were a couple of end-zone looks last night, and I'll be starting him where I have him the rest of the way. Patience has paid off somewhat with him of late. (I realize 5 for 54 isn't winning fantasy leagues, but it's something.)
MISCELLANEOUS
Think I already mentioned some key general things earlier. Gutsy move by Dan Campbell, who I think should be the Coach of the Year; either him or Mike Tomlin, and I truly believe they should get all the votes. And I think that while Detroit will probably need to be playing starters through Week 17 to clinch the No. 1 seed, there's a risk that Green Bay will be locked in as either the 5th or 6th -- just hope their Week 17 game with Minnesota determines that spot, so both will still be playing all their starters. Seems like a decent chance, so once again, kudos to the NFL schedule makers. They've been pretty good/lucky this year.