There was a report this week that Jonathon Brooks, who missed virtually all of his rookie season while recovering from a torn ACL, will likely miss all of his second season after his second tear. It's not surprising, just a grim reminder that there aren't a lot of sure things at the position, even among early picks.
With the running back position devalued by NFL teams, we tend to think of second-round picks as guys who perhaps would have been first-rounders 20 years ago. But the hit rate on first-rounders at the position has been good, with four of the last seven and somewhere between 7-9 of the past 13 (depending on where you fall on guys like Leonard Fournette and Najee Harris) hitting for the teams that drafted them. Most recent include Barkley, Jacobs, Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. The success of guys drafted in the second round, like Brooks, hasn't been particularly impressive.
In the last 10 years, there have been 21 running backs selected in the second round of the draft. Four of them had a top-10 fantasy season (PPR) in one of their first two years, and they're the franchise guys: Taylor (both years), Hall, Chubb, Mixon.
Five others had a top-20 season. But three of those five (Javonte, Swift, Sanders) would be considered disappointments (Denver won't bring back Williams). And of the other 12 second-round running backs, only two (Cook and Henry) have finished in the top 10 at the position in their careers.
About one out of three (with Kenneth Walker and James Cook added to the Henry, Cook, Taylor, Chubb, Hall and Mixon grouping) of those seconds have hit it big, or close to it. Swift is debatable, perhaps, but three teams (I'm including the Bears) haven't got quite what they were hoping for out of him.
The first two seasons from all those 2nd-round backs are below, sorted by PPR ranking. Backs with a top-10 season at some point in their careers are in bold.
| 2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2015-2024 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Season | Player | Yr | G | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 41 | 2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 2 | 17 | 1811 | 40 | 360 | 20 | 1 |
| 36 | 2023 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 2 | 17 | 994 | 76 | 591 | 9 | 2 |
| 41 | 2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1 | 15 | 1169 | 36 | 299 | 12 | 6 |
| 35 | 2019 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 2 | 16 | 1494 | 36 | 278 | 8 | 8 |
| 48 | 2018 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 2 | 14 | 1168 | 43 | 296 | 9 | 10 |
| 63 | 2023 | James Cook, Buff. | 2 | 17 | 1122 | 44 | 445 | 6 | 11 |
| 53 | 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 1 | 16 | 818 | 50 | 509 | 6 | 15 |
| 35 | 2021 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 2 | 13 | 617 | 62 | 452 | 7 | 15 |
| 35 | 2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 1 | 13 | 521 | 46 | 357 | 10 | 16 |
| 35 | 2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 1 | 17 | 903 | 43 | 316 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 | 2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 1 | 16 | 996 | 20 | 149 | 10 | 17 |
| 41 | 2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 1 | 15 | 1050 | 27 | 165 | 9 | 18 |
| 41 | 2023 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 2 | 15 | 905 | 29 | 259 | 9 | 22 |
| 62 | 2021 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 2 | 17 | 803 | 34 | 313 | 7 | 23 |
| 53 | 2020 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 2 | 12 | 867 | 28 | 197 | 6 | 23 |
| 55 | 2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 1 | 15 | 805 | 18 | 120 | 9 | 24 |
| 52 | 2024 | Zach Charbonnet, Sea. | 2 | 17 | 569 | 42 | 340 | 9 | 25 |
| 38 | 2019 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 2 | 16 | 724 | 31 | 309 | 6 | 25 |
| 36 | 2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 1 | 12 | 740 | 36 | 279 | 3 | 28 |
| 41 | 2018 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 2 | 11 | 615 | 40 | 305 | 4 | 30 |
| 43 | 2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 1 | 10 | 641 | 32 | 213 | 4 | 33 |
| 48 | 2017 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 1 | 14 | 626 | 30 | 287 | 4 | 33 |
| 36 | 2016 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 2 | 15 | 465 | 50 | 312 | 2 | 34 |
| 45 | 2017 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 2 | 16 | 744 | 11 | 136 | 6 | 37 |
| 36 | 2022 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 1 | 7 | 463 | 19 | 218 | 5 | 42 |
| 63 | 2022 | James Cook, Buff. | 1 | 16 | 507 | 21 | 180 | 3 | 44 |
| 54 | 2015 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 1 | 16 | 597 | 25 | 183 | 3 | 44 |
| 52 | 2023 | Zach Charbonnet, Sea. | 1 | 16 | 462 | 33 | 209 | 1 | 45 |
| 52 | 2020 | Cam Akers, LAR | 1 | 13 | 625 | 11 | 123 | 3 | 45 |
| 45 | 2016 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 1 | 15 | 490 | 13 | 137 | 5 | 45 |
| 43 | 2019 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 2 | 8 | 403 | 10 | 127 | 4 | 54 |
| 59 | 2019 | Derrius Guice, Was. | 2 | 5 | 245 | 7 | 79 | 3 | 69 |
| 41 | 2017 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 1 | 4 | 354 | 11 | 90 | 2 | 72 |
| 35 | 2022 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 2 | 4 | 204 | 16 | 76 | 0 | 81 |
| 62 | 2020 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 1 | 11 | 242 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 83 |
| 38 | 2018 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 1 | 9 | 44 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 95 |
| 54 | 2016 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 2 | 2 | 101 | 5 | 57 | 1 | 98 |
| 46 | 2024 | Jonathon Brooks, Car. | 1 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 114 |
| 52 | 2021 | Cam Akers, LAR | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 144 |
| 59 | 2018 | Derrius Guice, Was. | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
In dynasty, I've drafted an uncomfortable number of these disappointing second-rounders in the first rounds of rookie drafts. Abdullah, Dobbins, Jones, Javonte, Brooks. Not that it's time to totally write off the Panthers youngster, but two ACL tears before he's even shown that he can play in the NFL isn't exactly a promising situation.
This is considered a strong class of incoming rookie running backs. Everyone knows Ashton Jeanty, but I've seen speculation that a dozen players at the position could be drafted in the first three rounds. Exciting times.
But I'm going to be treading cautiously in my rookie drafts. Injuries, committee backfields and trusted veterans being ahead of them all contribute to make rookie backs, even highly regarded ones, risky selections.
--Andy Richardson