A tip of the cap to the Bengals, who've defied years of penny-pinching by signing both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to top-of-the-market four-year deals. Now the question is where to draft them.
Chase is comparatively easy. He's probably the league's best wide receiver, and he's definitely working with the best quarterback of the various candidates. Somewhere in the top 3 of every draft, with running backs (Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson) the other candidates.
With Higgins, the question is trickier; at what point do you move from No. 1 wideouts on their respective teams to the No. 2 on the Bengals? Looking at the history, pretty early.
I looked at the last four years, 2021-2024, when the Bengals have had both players (Higgins entered the league a year earlier, in 2020). I looked at players who played at least half the games in that time frame, so guys who have played only one season (2024 rookies) are left out. And I went with per-game numbers, since both players have missed a handful of games: Chase five games in 2022, Higgins 5 games in each of the last two seasons. This can be done using the search tools at pro-football-reference.com.
Chase comes in 3rd, behind Justin Jefferson (who will definitely be working with an inferior quarterback this season) and Cooper Kupp (who's six years older).
Higgins comes in higher than you probably expected, the 14th-best wide receiver in PPR leagues on a per-game basis over the past four seasons. And I think about half the guys ahead of him will be ranked behind him when you consider things like age and injury. Stefon Diggs doesn't even have a team yet. Keenan Allen turns 33 next month and might be the No. 3 in Chicago this year. I don't think there are many leagues where Deebo Samuel would be selected ahead of Higgins. Tyreek and Davante are trickier, but they're also getting up there in years.
| WIDE RECEIVERS PER GAME, 2021-2024 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Rec | Yds | TD | Rec/G | Yds/G | TD/G | PPR/G |
| Justin Jefferson | 61 | 407 | 6032 | 34 | 6.7 | 98.9 | 0.6 | 20.0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 50 | 346 | 4206 | 34 | 6.9 | 84.1 | 0.7 | 19.6 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 62 | 395 | 5425 | 46 | 6.4 | 87.5 | 0.7 | 19.6 |
| Davante Adams | 64 | 411 | 5276 | 41 | 6.4 | 82.4 | 0.6 | 18.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | 67 | 430 | 5707 | 37 | 6.4 | 85.2 | 0.6 | 18.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 65 | 422 | 5404 | 35 | 6.5 | 83.1 | 0.5 | 18.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 66 | 430 | 4851 | 34 | 6.5 | 73.5 | 0.5 | 17.3 |
| Stefon Diggs | 58 | 365 | 4333 | 33 | 6.3 | 74.7 | 0.6 | 17.2 |
| A.J. Brown | 60 | 324 | 4900 | 30 | 5.4 | 81.7 | 0.5 | 16.5 |
| Keenan Allen | 54 | 350 | 3877 | 24 | 6.5 | 71.8 | 0.4 | 16.4 |
| Mike Evans | 62 | 304 | 4418 | 44 | 4.9 | 71.3 | 0.7 | 16.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | 59 | 244 | 3599 | 35 | 4.1 | 61.0 | 0.6 | 15.3 |
| Chris Godwin | 53 | 335 | 3726 | 17 | 6.3 | 70.3 | 0.3 | 15.3 |
| Tee Higgins | 54 | 263 | 3687 | 28 | 4.9 | 68.3 | 0.5 | 14.8 |
| D.J. Moore | 68 | 350 | 4375 | 26 | 5.1 | 64.3 | 0.4 | 14.1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 63 | 308 | 4011 | 27 | 4.9 | 63.7 | 0.4 | 13.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 62 | 309 | 4129 | 21 | 5.0 | 66.6 | 0.3 | 13.8 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 65 | 297 | 4121 | 31 | 4.6 | 63.4 | 0.5 | 13.7 |
| Terry McLaurin | 68 | 315 | 4342 | 28 | 4.6 | 63.9 | 0.4 | 13.5 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 65 | 365 | 3967 | 17 | 5.6 | 61.0 | 0.3 | 13.4 |
| Garrett Wilson | 51 | 279 | 3249 | 14 | 5.5 | 63.7 | 0.3 | 13.4 |
| Adam Thielen | 57 | 288 | 3071 | 25 | 5.1 | 53.9 | 0.4 | 13.2 |
| Amari Cooper | 61 | 262 | 3822 | 26 | 4.3 | 62.7 | 0.4 | 13.1 |
| Chris Olave | 39 | 191 | 2565 | 10 | 4.9 | 65.8 | 0.3 | 13.0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 62 | 308 | 3504 | 22 | 5.0 | 56.5 | 0.4 | 13.0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 52 | 237 | 2956 | 23 | 4.6 | 56.8 | 0.4 | 12.9 |
| Calvin Ridley | 39 | 171 | 2314 | 15 | 4.4 | 59.3 | 0.4 | 12.8 |
| Nico Collins | 51 | 218 | 3230 | 18 | 4.3 | 63.3 | 0.4 | 12.8 |
| Drake London | 50 | 241 | 3042 | 15 | 4.8 | 60.8 | 0.3 | 12.7 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 57 | 234 | 3557 | 20 | 4.1 | 62.4 | 0.4 | 12.5 |
| Christian Kirk | 54 | 245 | 3256 | 17 | 4.5 | 60.3 | 0.3 | 12.4 |
| Marquise Brown | 44 | 218 | 2382 | 13 | 5.0 | 54.1 | 0.3 | 12.2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 66 | 285 | 3702 | 24 | 4.3 | 56.1 | 0.4 | 12.2 |
| Diontae Johnson | 58 | 277 | 3135 | 16 | 4.8 | 54.1 | 0.3 | 12.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 34 | 163 | 1758 | 10 | 4.8 | 51.7 | 0.3 | 11.9 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 58 | 249 | 3426 | 12 | 4.3 | 59.1 | 0.2 | 11.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | 65 | 262 | 3458 | 22 | 4.0 | 53.2 | 0.3 | 11.4 |
| Brandin Cooks | 55 | 227 | 2652 | 20 | 4.1 | 48.2 | 0.4 | 11.3 |
| George Pickens | 48 | 174 | 2841 | 13 | 3.6 | 59.2 | 0.3 | 11.2 |
By leaving off 2024 rookies, there are several players who will/should be drafted before Higgins. Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, perhaps Marvin Harrison and Ladd McConkey -- those guys are No. 1 wideouts, and probably a couple of them will show up ahead of Higgins in the rankings. Puka Nacua too.
But with the contract issues in the past and one of the game's very best quarterbacks throwing to him, plus an iffy defenses ensuring a lot of shootouts, Higgins looks like a top-15 (maybe top-10) wide receiver.
--Andy Richardson
