L.A. RAMS (vs. Det.): The Lions have won the two games between these teams the last two years, both at Ford Field – 26-20 in overtime in Week 1 a year ago, and 24-23 in a playoff game the previous season. But the Rams look like the better team now.
The offenses look similar (slightly more yards and points for the Lions, but
one more touchdown for LA), and the Rams have the better defense, allowing 12
fewer touchdowns. They should win this one, and probably without having to pull
off any last-minute heroics. They’re favored by 5.5 points, and with an
over-under that suggests they’ll score 30-31 points.
Matthew Stafford looks
awfully strong. He's putting up big numbers, currently on pace for 46
touchdowns, and he’s going against a defense that’s struggled against the pass.
The Lions rank 21st against the pass, and they’ll be playing without half of
their starting secondary – Terrion Arnold and Pro Bowler Brian Branch. The
Lions have allowed an average of 336 passing yards in their last three games,
with 8 TD passes, and Stafford has had a better year than any of those guys –
Jordan Love, Dak Prescott and Jameis Winston. Only slight hesitation is that
Rams have also got their running game going, reducing the urgency to
aggressively pass the ball. Stafford is averaging only 258 passing yards, which
isn’t as statistically impressive as his 35 touchdowns. And Stafford doesn’t
run at all.
Colby Parkinson, strange to say, is a legit tight end. The
Rams are leaning into 12- and 13-personnel formations, with Davis Allen and
Terrance Ferguson also playing plenty. All three tight ends were on the
field for at least 64 percent of the team’s plays last week. All three played
more than any of the team’s wide receivers. So if you
start Parkinson, it’s with the understanding it might instead be Allen who’s
left uncovered for a 5-yard touchdown flip. But Parkinson has been their main
guy of late, particularly with Tyler Higbee on IR. Parkinson has caught
touchdowns in four of his last five games. He’s averaged 3.6 catches in those
games, which isn’t great, but the scoring potential puts him on the radar.
Allen has caught 7 passes in those five games, with a touchdown. Ferguson is
something different, with uber athleticism that they’ll try to get downfield
for a big play at some point. He’s averaged 27.6 yards on his 5 catches this
year. But they haven’t had much success with him recently; they’ve gone 1 of 8
trying to get him the ball in the last five weeks.
Helped along by those
extra tight ends, the Rams have their running game rolling. They rank 11th in
rushing and they’ve been particularly good recently, averaging 148 rushing
yards in their last six games, with 9 TDs. (They averaged only 103 yards in
their first seven, and with only 4 TDs). But it’s more of a committee backfield
now, with Kyren Williams yielding more playing time to Blake Corum.
Williams has averaged 80 rushing yards in his last six games, with 6 TDs, while
Corum has averaged 60, with 3 TDs. This isn’t a great matchup for them, with
Detroit ranking 10th against the run, but it's not what you would call a
shutdown defense. The Lions are 3-3 in their last six, allowing 142, 147 and
125 rushing yards in the three losses. And this defense will be getting worn
down if the Rams are moving the ball and scoring points. Neither is a big
factor in the passing game. Williams has caught only 6 passes in his last six
games. Corum actually has negative receiving yards over the last 13 weeks.
It’s a good situation for the wide receivers, with Detroit working without half
of its secondary. But Puka Nacua and Davante Adams aren’t getting
used as much now, with them leaning on more sets with multiple tight ends.
Nacua caught 52 passes in his first five games, looking like he might break the
single-season record for catches. But since coming back from his injury, he’s
averaged only 5.6 catches, with not more than 7 in any of those seven games.
Adams has been lightly used all along, averaging 4.3 catches for 55 yards –
he’s on pace to finish the season with only 940 yards. But Adams is the guy they like around the
goal line, allowing him to lead the league in touchdown catches. He’s scored 14
touchdowns – twice as many as Nacua. The Lions don’t seem likely to be slowing
him down; they’ve allowed 20 touchdown passes to wide receivers, 2nd-most in
the league.
Harrison Mevis is holding up fine at kicker; in five
games, he’s made all 26 of his kicks. But it’s not a kicker-friendly offense,
with the Rams consistently cashing out drives with touchdowns. In their last
seven games, their kickers have attempted 34 extra points but only 4 field
goals.
The Rams Defense looks like a middle-of-the-pack choice. It’s
got a top-10 pass rush, but the Lions have been above-average at avoiding sacks.
And Detroit has turned the ball over only 11 times, tying for fewest in the
league. Unlikely that the Rams are able to frazzle them into completely melting
down. And Los Angeles doesn’t seem to care much about special teams.
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