Seattle is favored by 2.5, and it should probably be more. They've lost only 1 of their last 12 games, and just dominated the 49ers. But both the loss and their closest win were against this opponent. The Rams are unlikely to go quietly.
Sam Darnold threw for 270-279 yards in each Rams game, leading comebacks that fell just short in one and resulted in a one-point win (thanks to 2 TDs and 2 two-point conversions) in the other. Uneven performances (2 TDs were offset by 6 interceptions), but they were moving the ball effectively. The Rams defense was a lot better the first eight games (226 yards per week with 9 touchdowns) than the last nine (243 yards per week with 16 touchdowns; multiple scores in six of those), which has continued into the postseason (257-264 yards from Bryce-Caleb, with 2 total touchdowns from each. They finished the year just 20th in pass defense, and allowed 25 touchdowns, tied with New England for most among the final four (5-7 more than Seattle and Denver).
The body of work makes it reasonable to worry Darnold will be involved in multiple turnovers (he was also sacked 4 times in the last meeting), but there will be some opportunities for passing production too. He averaged 238 yards during the season, with multiple touchdowns in about half (eight) of his games. He doesn't run. Darnold is dealing with an oblique injury that's been limiting him in practice; no doubt he's playing and it didn't necessarily affect him last week, but he also only had to attempt 17 passes in that laugher. Fair to worry that Seattle may again emphasize the run, and with fewer pass attempts. Darnold also isn't certain to have left tackle Charles Cross (foot) in the lineup.
Kenneth Walker looks like a key player. He's a free agent after the season, and his value to the team has changed with Zach Charbonnet tearing his ACL last week. They'd been a one-two punch all season, with Walker averaging about 2 more carries and 14 more rushing yards per week, but with Charbonnet getting all the goal-line work (and outscoring him 12-5). With Charbonnet hurt against the 49ers Walker tied or established season-highs in carries (19), yards (116) and touchdowns (3). He averaged about 2 catches and 17 receiving yards, and should also take on Charbonnet's portion of that work (small: 1.3 catches and 9 yards per game).
Seattle is getting George Holani back from IR, and the second-year man might be worth a flier in deeper, TD-heavy formats. In two of the team's bigger wins during the season, he received 7-10 carries, and scored in one of them. He should be a change-of-pace, and just maybe they'll try him at the goal line. But not enough evidence of that kind of usage to count on it; Walker didn't give the team any reason to pull him for a youngster coming off injury in the biggest game of the year. Just something to keep in mind as a possibility (in our eyes, Walker is likelier to be featured than any of the other three starters this week, all of whom have more established No. 2s behind them).
Note also that the Rams were leaky against the run the second half of the season, allowing an average of 127 yards in their last eight games, and 135-171 in both Seahawks games. Walker himself scored in both meetings, with 111 total yards at LA and 164 at home (including a 55-yard touchdown). Hard to make a case for another back over him.
With Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the only real concern is workload. If the Seahawks' defense and ground game are as good as they were in a lot of late-season games, including last week, he'll be underutilized. He averaged 7 catches and 106 yards (with 10 touchdowns), but finished under both totals in three of his last seven games -- there was no need to put the ball in the air much in several of them. And his quarterback has an oblique injury, which could lead to more running. Smith-Njigba caught 7-9 passes in his other four most recent games; no one is suggesting he won't still outperform most other wide receivers still playing, perhaps even finishing as the week's top player at the position. But we're slotting him behind his opposing counterpart.
Cooper Kupp will be up for the matchup, but that didn't factor noticeably into either of the regular-season meetings. He caught 3 passes in each of those, for 23 and 39 yards. Kupp caught more than three passes just twice in his last 12 games, with 2 TDs. One of those better games (5 for 60) was last week, but no one should be imagining a turn-back-the-clock performance. Rashid Shaheed is more likely to chip in something big. In his last four games he has a pair of 30-yard runs, and he's also scored 3 return touchdowns during the season -- one to open last week's game, and one to start the 16-point comeback in the home win. But as far as actually catching passes from his quarterback, there hasn't been too much of that. He had a pair of 4-5 catch games against the Falcons and Colts, but in his other eight games as a Seahawk he's caught a total of 6 passes. Difficult to sign off on that.
AJ Barner looks like a value this week. He doesn't have the track record of a Hunter Henry, and the position doesn't have the touchdown volume of the Rams (who threw 17 touchdowns to tight ends, while Seattle threw only 7). But Barner was a big part of the regular-season matchups, catching 10 for 70 at LA and 4 for 49 (including the game-tying touchdown) in the home win. Seattle will probably get Elijah Arroyo back for this game, but Arroyo had one game with more than 2 receptions and 1 TD all season. Blocker Eric Saubert (who caught the game-winning 2-pointer in the home game) shouldn't be a factor; just 4 other catches this season.
Jason Myers had a huge year, including 4 field goals in the road loss. None in the home game, but a league-high 48 attempts (and 11 points last week). The Rams allowed just 27 field goals, but that's more than two of the other three remaining teams.
The Seahawks Defense was one of the best during the season, and has a lot more takeaways (25) than two of the other remaining teams; tied for 2nd in sacks (47). It's definitely the most likely to score on a return, with Rashid Shaheed doing so twice in the last month. But it also has the worst matchup -- by far -- of the remaining defenses. Matthew Stafford attempted 77 passes in the regular-season games without being sacked or turning it over (Seattle's only takeaway was on a Puka Nacua fumble). Stafford threw 8 interceptions and took only 23 sacks during the season, though Chicago got him 4 times last week.
Later today: Championship Game rankings.
--Andy Richardson
