If you ignore a pair of back-and-forth shootouts with the Rams, you might wonder why Seattle isn't a bigger favorite than the 4.5-point spread. The average score against their other last six opponents (all wins) is 27-7. Half were playoff teams.
On the season, this was a top-10 offense: 8th in yards, and 5th in points. It's facing a defense that was similar during the season (8th in yards and 4th in points allowed) and has been even better in its playoff wins, extenuating circumstances (Stroud imploding, Nix getting hurt) and all. But if you do nothing more than set aside three games against the Jets and a bunch of Dolphins backups, New England in its last six other games down the stretch allowed an average of 23 points and 2.8 touchdowns. That makes it seem pretty likely Seattle will come through with 2-3 touchdowns, with 3 TDs more likely.
After faltering down the stretch a year ago, Sam Darnold has answered his critics this year. There were hiccups along the way -- his 20 turnovers led the league -- but he outdueled Matthew Stafford twice down the stretch, and didn't turn it over in either playoff win. There were some game-manager type outings (both San Francisco wins), but he's stepped up when necessary. Assuming New England's offense is able to do something close to what it's done all season -- and also that its defense is doing its usual against the run -- Darnold will need to deliver here, and there's some potential. New England was most vulnerable to the pass: 9th, and worse if you remove several games against bottom-ranked Jets passers and Dolphins backups. There's talent in the secondary -- Christian Gonzalez is a Pro Bowl corner -- but it's a below-average pass rush (35 sacks) and a defense that generally wants opponents to put the ball in the air.
Darnold averaged 238 passing yards during the season, with 240-plus nine times. He threw multiple touchdown passes in eight games, same as this defense allowed. Darnold is dealing with an oblique injury, but that wasn't an issue against the Rams last week (346 yards and 3 TDs). He doesn't run (under 6 yards per game and no touchdowns all season).
With the run defense, probably best to just remove the games that tackle Milton Williams missed. In those six games, New England allowed an average of 146 rushing yards -- over 110 in all of them -- and 8 touchdowns. In the 11 games he played during the regular season, this defense allowed an average of 78 rushing yards (over 75 in just three of them) with 3 rushing scores. The Chargers and Texans averaged 68 yards the last two weeks, with half of that production by quarterbacks. Huge difference, so while Seattle ranked 10th in rushing during the season at 123 yards per game, with 19 touchdowns, they should come in below those levels here -- possibly well below them.
Poor matchup aside, there's only two starting running backs left, and with Kenneth Walker, there's no doubt he'll be a workhorse. (Rhamondre Stevenson probably will be too, but there's slightly more chance of his No. 2 being a factor than Seattle's, with Zach Charbonnet on IR.) Walker in his last three averages 18 carries for 92 yards, with 4 touchdowns, while also catching 11 passes for 114 yards. With Charbonnet healthy during the season, Walker averaged just 1.8 receptions for 17 yards, in addition to his 60 per game as a runner, while scoring just 5 TDs. Charbonnet scored 12, getting most of the work around the end zone and putting up similar numbers as a receiver.
Now it's George Holani as the No. 2, and he should get some chances. In the NFC Championship he played about a third of the snaps, carrying it 3 times and also catching 3 passes for 27 yards. But those rushing attempts went for only 4 yards, and on the season he averaged 3.3 per attempt (22 carries, 73 yards). If a No. 2 in this game gets a few extra chances to bust a big play, more likely it would be TreVeyon Henderson. If you're using Holani, it's with the hope he contributes as a receiver, which seems possible against this strong run defense.
New England has a Pro Bowl corner, but no one will be considering any wide receivers over Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Despite being every opponent's main concern all season, he averaged 7 catches for 106 yards and 10 for 153 last week. Just 3 catches in the blowout over San Francisco in the Divisional Round, but he's scored in both playoff games (10 TDs during the season). Of the 25 touchdowns thrown against the Patriots this year, 17 went to wide receivers (only six teams allowed more).
It's after Smith-Njigba where the questions arise; Seattle didn't have another wideout average even 3 receptions or 40 yards during the season. Cooper Kupp (2.9 catches for 37 yards, with 2 TDs) was best, and he's stepped things up in the postseason. He caught 5 for 60 against the 49ers and 4 for 36 with a touchdown last week. He'll see looser coverage than Smith-Njigba, and has a Super Bowl MVP on his resume. Makes the most sense as the No. 2 again.
Just last week we'd largely dismissed the other wideouts, and indeed those players (Rashid Shaheed, Jake Bobo each caught just a single pass. But Shaheed's was a 51-yard bomb to set up Seattle's opening-drive touchdown, while Bobo's was a 17-yard score that gave them the two-score lead that held up. Just 2-3 targets for each, though; unlikely either can be counted on to do much more than take a defender away from the top 2. Shaheed hasn't caught more than 1 pass in any of his last five contests; he's handled the ball more on runs (4 for 58) than receptions in those games. It's the potential for a big play, on either a reception, run or return -- 3 return TDs with Seattle, including the one that set the tone for the Niners game two weeks ago -- that gets him in the discussion for a lineup spot. But hard to count on those plays, or consider him over Kupp. Bobo (2 catches on the season and 1 in each playoff game) can't be used.
AJ Barner has been playing almost every snap, but with minimal payoff of late. He did average 3 receptions during the season, at time looking like a go-to player; he caught 10 passes in the first Rams game and 3-4 in five of the next six after that, with 2 TDs. But in his last three he totals 4 catches for 27 yards, and that's without rookie Elijah Arroyo even playing. Arroyo has missed the last month with a knee injury but was practicing last week and will probably be active for the Super Bowl. Regardless, difficult to make a case for the position, with minimal usage for those players for the past handful of games. New England allowed 6 TDs to the position during the season, but a lot more to wide receivers (17). Houston tight ends combined to catch 6 for 70 against this defense, but they were shorthanded at wideout (neither the Chargers nor Broncos did anything notable in their games). Barner is the player to consider, but unlikely he's comparable to his New England counterpart.
Jason Myers just set the kicker scoring record, with 171 points -- over 10 per game. More of the same in two playoff games (18 total). New England allowed fewer field goals (19) than anyone but Houston, but Seattle wasn't a much better matchup (25). If the Patriots defense is having some success in this one, it will probably be in terms of forcing an extra three-pointer or two.
Defenses might play a huge role in this game. Possibly on returns, with each finishing with 2-3 TDs in that area during the season, and the Seattle Defense opening its postseason with a Rashid Shaheed touchdown on a kickoff. But more conventional production also looks promising for the Seahawks. They ranked 6th in takeaways (25) and 7th in sacks (47), more than a dozen spots higher than New England in each category. And Drake Maye threw only 8 interceptions (while his team was losing an average 8 fumbles), but he was sacked 47 times, plus 5 more in each playoff game -- surprising considering they won two of those fairly easily. However this one goes, Seattle's defense looks safest for some sack numbers, with a little more likelihood of a defense or special teams score.
Tomorrow: Super Bowl LX rankings.
--Andy Richardson
