Brendan Donovan, Chase DeLauter, and Masyn Winn are among the strong early values for runs scored.
The generally accepted idea for runs scored is that the higher a hitter bats in the order, the more runs he will score. Like RBI, analyzing a team’s batting order—and anticipating changes—can create an edge for fantasy managers looking to boost their totals in the runs category.
These eight hitters have a strong chance to either open the season in the leadoff spot or work their way into that role, significantly increasing their runs-scored upside.
Chase DeLauter, OF, Cleveland Guardians
While DeLauter has yet to appear in an MLB regular-season game, he did make two starts for the Guardians during last year’s Wild Card Round. The former first-round pick has three years of minor-league experience, but he’s played just 138 total games due to multiple injuries, including a sports hernia and a broken hamate last year.
Despite the limited experience, the Guardians clearly think highly of DeLauter. He’s appeared in 40 games across two seasons at Triple-A, hitting .282/.386/.517 with more walks than strikeouts. For his minor-league career, DeLauter owns a .384 OBP after posting a remarkable .520 OBP over three seasons at James Madison. The leadoff profile is evident if he can stay healthy, and he could eventually challenge Steven Kwan for opportunities atop the lineup. With an ADP near 350, the risk is minimal relative to the potential runs upside.
Brendan Donovan, 2B, Seattle Mariners
Donovan was traded from St. Louis to Seattle earlier this week, and he has an excellent chance to assume leadoff duties for his new club. Consistency has defined Donovan’s offensive game, as he’s hit at least .278 in every season while posting an OBP of .342 or better in all four years. His career .361 OBP ranks best among projected Seattle regulars, making him a natural fit at the top of the order.
There are some concerns surrounding Donovan’s new home park. T-Mobile Field consistently rates as one of MLB’s least favorable venues for power, and Donovan already lacks home run upside, never exceeding 14 homers in a season. Still, the surrounding lineup—featuring Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, and Randy Arozarena—represents an upgrade from St. Louis. Donovan also brings added fantasy value with the potential to gain additional eligibility in the outfield and at third base.
TJ Friedl, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Friedl enjoyed a strong rebound campaign last season after injuries derailed his 2024, finishing with a .261-14-53 line, 82 runs, and 12 stolen bases across 152 games. While those numbers fell short of his breakout 2023 season (.279-18-66 with 27 steals), it was encouraging to see Friedl reestablish himself as the Reds’ primary leadoff hitter, starting there in all 150 of his starts. Even with the additions of Eugenio Suárez and Sal Stewart, Friedl appears locked into that role.
The bigger question is whether Friedl can still provide profit for fantasy managers. Based on last season’s production, the answer appears to be yes. His ADP remains outside the top 250, and with everyday leadoff duties secured, Friedl should once again pile up runs and counting stats.
Jackson Holliday, 2B, Baltimore Orioles
Is this the year Holliday truly breaks out? The former No. 1 overall pick hasn’t quite met the sky-high expectations yet, but he still produced solid fantasy numbers in his first full season, hitting .242-17-55 with 70 runs and 17 stolen bases. With Craig Albernaz taking over as manager, there’s renewed optimism—especially after Holliday was promoted to the leadoff spot last May.
Holliday held onto that role for the remainder of the season, posting a .236-13-41 line with 15 steals and 58 runs in 113 games. His .311 OBP will need to improve for him to stick atop the order long term, but the surrounding lineup looks far more enticing this season. Additions like Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, along with potential bounce-back seasons from Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and Adley Rutschman, significantly raise Holliday’s run-scoring ceiling. With an ADP near 135, he isn’t cheap, but there’s still room for profit.
Colt Keith, 2B/3B, Detroit Tigers
Detroit’s relatively quiet offseason on the offensive side works in Keith’s favor. The former top prospect began to look more comfortable as a leadoff hitter in the second half last season, making 51 starts there and posting a .743 OPS with 34 runs scored. While Keith’s overall fantasy output has been modest early in his career, he took a step forward last year with a .746 OPS. His minor-league track record suggests additional power upside, highlighted by 27 homers across Double- and Triple-A in 2023.
There are legitimate threats to Keith’s leadoff role. Kerry Carpenter and Gleyber Torres both logged time at the top of the order, and Parker Meadows has a skill set that could also fit. Still, Keith’s growth and experience in the role give him an edge, and he offers intriguing upside at an ADP outside the top 300.
Jack Mangum, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
A late bloomer, Mangum made his MLB debut with Tampa Bay last season at age 29. His delayed arrival wasn’t due to a lack of performance, as he posted a .297/.351/.424 line across six minor-league seasons. Limited power and Tampa Bay’s crowded outfield held him back, but Mangum delivered once he got the opportunity, playing strong defense at all three outfield spots while hitting .296/.330/.368 with 27 steals in 118 games. Mangum was traded for the third time in his career, landing in Pittsburgh alongside Brandon Lowe and Mason Montgomery. While the Pirates continue to be linked to free-agent outfielders, their options are thinning. As currently constructed, Mangum has a strong chance to earn regular playing time alongside Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds. His speed could push him up the lineup if he starts hot, and with an ADP outside the top 400, the investment cost is negligible.
Chase Meidroth, 2B/SS, Chicago White Sox
Meidroth quietly delivered a strong rookie season for the White Sox, appearing in 122 games, though his performance was overshadowed by the arrival of Colson Montgomery. While Montgomery provides more power, Meidroth’s approach at the plate could make him the better real-life contributor. His elite plate discipline translated immediately, as he posted a .329 OBP with 14 steals while frequently serving as the team’s leadoff hitter.
With a career .425 OBP in the minors, there’s reason to believe Meidroth still has offensive growth ahead. While power and speed aren’t major components of his profile, his patience and on-base skills stand out. The path to profit improves with the additions of Munetaka Murakami and Austin Hays behind him, along with full seasons from Montgomery, Kyle Teel, and Edgar Quero. If Meidroth sticks in the leadoff role, 75-plus runs is a reasonable projection, and he remains nearly free outside the top 400 picks.
Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
There are few clear answers in the Cardinals’ lineup, as the overall talent level has taken a step back this season. St. Louis lost Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, and Nolan Arenado, while the oft-injured Lars Nootbaar may not be ready for Opening Day. Someone must fill the leadoff role, and speedy center fielder Victor Scott is unlikely after posting just a .305 OBP last season.
Winn was a disappointment last year while playing through injury, but the leadoff job could be his to start the season. He made most of his starts batting first or second and owns a .350 OBP in the minors, suggesting more upside than his early-career .304 OBP in the majors. Nootbaar remains a threat once healthy, and top prospect JJ Wetherholt could factor in later, but for now, Winn profiles as another potentially profitable runs option with an ADP outside the top 250.
--Seth Trachtman
