With the stats in front of me, I see that Cam Ward had a rough first season. Among quarterbacks who started at least half of their team’s games, he finished with the worst per-game numbers in the league. That’s assuming standard scoring.
That’s not surprising. It’s tough for a rookie to come in and excel at that position, and he didn’t have much to work with. Tennessee’s five leading receivers where Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears and three lightly regarded rookies – Chimere Dike, Gunnar Helm and Elic Ayomanor.
But last is last, and typically when a quarterback isn’t productive in his first season, he doesn’t tend to be productive in his second season either.
In the 32-team era, 28 other quarterbacks drafted in the first round have started at least half of their team’s games and ranked outside the top 20 statistically. Only seven of those guys finished with numbers even worse than Ward (tagged with dots).
| STRUGGLING ROOKIE QBs (ROOKIE NUMBERS) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (pick) | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2002 | • David Carr, Hou. (1) | 16 | 162 | .56 | .94 | 18 | .19 | 13.5 | 28 |
| 2002 | • Joey Harrington, Det. (3) | 12 | 187 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0 | .00 | 13.4 | 29 |
| 2003 | • Kyle Boller, Balt. (19) | 9 | 139 | .78 | 1.00 | 7 | .00 | 11.6 | 31 |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. (11) | 13 | 188 | 1.15 | .69 | 11 | .08 | 15.6 | 24 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. (3) | 16 | 215 | 1.00 | .69 | 7 | .06 | 15.9 | 21 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco, Balt. (18) | 16 | 186 | .88 | .75 | 11 | .13 | 14.8 | 26 |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. (17) | 9 | 204 | 1.11 | 2.00 | 17 | .00 | 16.8 | 23 |
| 2009 | • Mark Sanchez, NYJ (5) | 15 | 163 | .80 | 1.33 | 7 | .20 | 13.5 | 28 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. (1) | 16 | 220 | 1.13 | .94 | 4 | .06 | 16.2 | 24 |
| 2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. (12) | 10 | 175 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 21 | .00 | 16.1 | 24 |
| 2011 | • Blaine Gabbert, Jac. (10) | 14 | 154 | .86 | .79 | 7 | .00 | 11.8 | 33 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. (22) | 15 | 226 | .93 | 1.13 | 7 | .00 | 15.8 | 27 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. (8) | 16 | 206 | .75 | .81 | 13 | .13 | 15.6 | 28 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. (16) | 10 | 197 | 1.10 | .90 | 19 | .20 | 17.7 | 25 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. (32) | 12 | 231 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 15 | .08 | 18.6 | 21 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. (3) | 13 | 207 | .69 | 1.15 | 30 | .00 | 16.2 | 27 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phi. (2) | 16 | 236 | 1.00 | .88 | 9 | .13 | 17.8 | 27 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. (2) | 12 | 183 | .58 | .58 | 21 | .17 | 14.7 | 29 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ (3) | 13 | 220 | 1.31 | 1.15 | 11 | .08 | 17.8 | 27 |
| 2018 | • Josh Rosen, Ari. (10) | 13 | 172 | .85 | 1.00 | 10 | .00 | 13.1 | 32 |
| 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. (5) | 9 | 201 | 1.22 | .56 | 12 | .33 | 18.4 | 29 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. (15) | 17 | 224 | 1.29 | .76 | 8 | .00 | 17.1 | 26 |
| 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. (10) | 10 | 180 | .70 | .90 | 39 | .10 | 16.3 | 30 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. (1) | 17 | 214 | .71 | 1.00 | 20 | .12 | 16.2 | 29 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ (2) | 13 | 180 | .69 | .85 | 14 | .31 | 15.2 | 31 |
| 2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. (20) | 12 | 190 | .58 | .50 | 19 | .08 | 14.5 | 30 |
| 2023 | • Bryce Young, Car. (1) | 16 | 180 | .69 | .63 | 16 | .00 | 13.6 | 28 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. (1) | 17 | 208 | 1.18 | .35 | 29 | .00 | 18.4 | 22 |
| 2025 | Cam Ward, Ten. (1) | 17 | 186 | .88 | .41 | 9 | .12 | 14.5 | 30 |
More notable for our purposes is what those quarterbacks did in their second seasons. How many were able to turn things around?
Strictly off the numbers, I see four who finished with top-10 per-game numbers in their second year. (None of those four, oddly, ultimately ended up being anything close to what was hoped for – Bortles, Wentz, Trubisky, Fields). Another four at least finished with top-15 numbers (tagged with dots).
That means 20 of the 28 didn’t finish with top-15 numbers in their second season. That lesser group includes Ryan Tannehill and three who later started in Super Bowls – Ryan, Flacco, Darnold.
| STRUGGLING ROOKIE QBs (SECOND SEASON) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (pick) | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2003 | David Carr, Hou. (1) | 11 | 181 | .82 | 1.09 | 11 | .18 | 14.5 | 26 |
| 2003 | Joey Harrington, Det. (3) | 16 | 180 | 1.06 | 1.38 | 5 | .00 | 14.0 | 27 |
| 2004 | Kyle Boller, Balt. (19) | 16 | 160 | .81 | .69 | 12 | .06 | 12.9 | 31 |
| 2005 | • Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. (11) | 12 | 199 | 1.42 | .75 | 6 | .25 | 17.7 | 15 |
| 2009 | Matt Ryan, Atl. (3) | 14 | 208 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 4 | .07 | 17.5 | 18 |
| 2009 | Joe Flacco, Balt. (18) | 16 | 226 | 1.31 | .75 | 4 | .00 | 16.9 | 21 |
| 2010 | Josh Freeman, T.B. (17) | 16 | 216 | 1.56 | .38 | 23 | .00 | 19.4 | 16 |
| 2010 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ (5) | 16 | 206 | 1.06 | .81 | 7 | .19 | 16.4 | 23 |
| 2011 | Sam Bradford, St.L. (1) | 10 | 216 | .60 | .60 | 3 | .00 | 13.5 | 32 |
| 2012 | Christian Ponder, Min. (12) | 16 | 183 | 1.13 | .75 | 16 | .13 | 16.1 | 26 |
| 2012 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. (10) | 10 | 166 | .90 | .60 | 6 | .00 | 12.9 | 31 |
| 2013 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. (8) | 16 | 245 | 1.50 | 1.06 | 15 | .06 | 20.1 | 20 |
| 2013 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. (22) | 5 | 304 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 8 | .00 | 22.5 | -- |
| 2014 | EJ Manuel, Buff. (16) | 4 | 210 | 1.25 | .75 | 13 | .25 | 18.3 | -- |
| 2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. (3) | 16 | 277 | 2.19 | 1.13 | 19 | .13 | 25.4 | 2 |
| 2015 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. (32) | 16 | 202 | .88 | .56 | 12 | .19 | 16.0 | 30 |
| 2017 | Carson Wentz, Phi. (2) | 13 | 254 | 2.54 | .54 | 23 | .00 | 25.7 | 2 |
| 2018 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. (2) | 14 | 230 | 1.71 | .86 | 30 | .21 | 23.2 | 10 |
| 2019 | Sam Darnold, NYJ (3) | 13 | 233 | 1.46 | 1.00 | 5 | .15 | 19.3 | 26 |
| 2019 | Josh Rosen, Mia. (10) | 3 | 155 | .33 | 1.00 | 4 | .00 | 9.5 | -- |
| 2021 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. (5) | 12 | 208 | 1.33 | .83 | 11 | .17 | 17.8 | 22 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. (10) | 15 | 149 | 1.13 | .73 | 76 | .53 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 2022 | • Trevor Lawrence, Jac. (1) | 17 | 242 | 1.47 | .47 | 17 | .29 | 21.8 | 11 |
| 2022 | Mac Jones, N.E. (15) | 14 | 214 | 1.00 | .79 | 7 | .07 | 16.0 | 28 |
| 2022 | Zach Wilson, NYJ (2) | 9 | 188 | .67 | .78 | 11 | .11 | 13.8 | 31 |
| 2023 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. (20) | 12 | 173 | .50 | .33 | 5 | .08 | 11.6 | 29 |
| 2024 | • Bryce Young, Car. (1) | 12 | 196 | 1.25 | .75 | 20 | .50 | 19.8 | 15 |
| 2025 | • Caleb Williams, Chi. (1) | 17 | 232 | 1.59 | .41 | 23 | .24 | 21.8 | 13 |
These are just big-picture stats, of course. They don’t preclude Ward from potentially being everything the Titans were hoping for when they picked him No. 1 overall. He made a bunch of cool throws in his first year, with a lively, accurate arm and an usual ability to make off-platform throws. If you put together a highlight tape of his top dozen plays, you would conclude he’s better than the vast majority of the other quarterbacks listed below.
Ward this year will be working with Brian Daboll. Daboll was Buffalo’s offensive coordinator when Josh Allen first became a superstar. He also seems to have more tendency to use his quarterbacks on designed runs – not only Allen but Daniel Jones and Jaxson Dart. How much that trickles into Ward, I don’t know; he’s mobile, but more often thus far has been looking to buy time for pass plays to develop, rather than simply running the ball.
We’re early in the process. Let’s see what they add around him. For now, I’m guessing Ward on my board will be flagged as a modest second quarterback – probably in my top 20, but I’m not locking in on that yet.
—Ian Allan

