Mike Evans is headed for free agency, and there's not much doubt he'll have a market. He's 32 and coming off his worst season, but the body of work is strong.
If forced to bet, I'd guess the Bucs will end up bringing him back. Eleven straight 1,000-yard seasons before this year will buy you some affection from your team. But there's also the chance that another team will simply be willing to give him a lot more money than Tampa Bay, which has other issues to address and other wide receivers. When big names make it to free agency looking for one last payday, they often get it somewhere else.
Evans missed half of last season due to injury, and the half he was around for was pretty poor. He averaged 3.8 catches for 46 yards, both career low figures by a good amount, with 3 TDs in eight games.
He also caught just 48 percent of the passes thrown his way. That catch rate was one of the worst in the league, among wideout with at least 50 targets.
| WIDE RECEIVER CATCH RATE, MINIMUM 50 TARGETS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | No | Rec | Avg | TD | Ctch |
| Stefon Diggs, N.E. | 102 | 85 | 1013 | 11.9 | 4 | 83.3% |
| Luther Burden, Chi. | 60 | 47 | 652 | 13.9 | 2 | 78.3% |
| Puka Nacua, LAR | 166 | 129 | 1715 | 13.3 | 10 | 77.7% |
| Khalil Shakir, Buff. | 95 | 72 | 719 | 10.0 | 4 | 75.8% |
| Sterling Shepard, T.B. | 53 | 39 | 371 | 9.5 | 1 | 73.6% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 163 | 119 | 1793 | 15.1 | 10 | 73.0% |
| Zay Flowers, Balt. | 118 | 86 | 1211 | 14.1 | 5 | 72.9% |
| Deebo Samuel, Was. | 99 | 72 | 727 | 10.1 | 5 | 72.7% |
| Marvin Mims, Den. | 51 | 37 | 322 | 8.7 | 1 | 72.5% |
| Michael Pittman, Ind. | 111 | 80 | 784 | 9.8 | 7 | 72.1% |
| Ryan Flournoy, Dall. | 56 | 40 | 475 | 11.9 | 4 | 71.4% |
| Malik Washington, Mia. | 65 | 46 | 317 | 6.9 | 3 | 70.8% |
| Mack Hollins, N.E. | 65 | 46 | 550 | 12.0 | 2 | 70.8% |
| Kendrick Bourne, S.F. | 53 | 37 | 551 | 14.9 | 0 | 69.8% |
| Jakobi Meyers, 2TM | 110 | 75 | 835 | 11.1 | 3 | 68.2% |
| DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 113 | 77 | 1008 | 13.1 | 4 | 68.1% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 172 | 117 | 1401 | 12.0 | 11 | 68.0% |
| Rashee Rice, K.C. | 78 | 53 | 571 | 10.8 | 5 | 67.9% |
| Ricky Pearsall, S.F. | 53 | 36 | 528 | 14.7 | 0 | 67.9% |
| George Pickens, Dall. | 137 | 93 | 1429 | 15.4 | 9 | 67.9% |
| Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 185 | 125 | 1412 | 11.3 | 8 | 67.6% |
| Cooper Kupp, Sea. | 70 | 47 | 593 | 12.6 | 2 | 67.1% |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 122 | 81 | 777 | 9.6 | 4 | 66.4% |
| Hollywood Brown, K.C. | 74 | 49 | 587 | 12.0 | 5 | 66.2% |
| Josh Downs, Ind. | 88 | 58 | 566 | 9.8 | 4 | 65.9% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 140 | 92 | 1014 | 11.0 | 4 | 65.7% |
| Chimere Dike, Ten. | 74 | 48 | 423 | 8.8 | 4 | 64.9% |
| Romeo Doubs, G.B. | 85 | 55 | 724 | 13.2 | 6 | 64.7% |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 51 | 33 | 360 | 10.9 | 2 | 64.7% |
| A.J. Brown, Phil. | 121 | 78 | 1003 | 12.9 | 7 | 64.5% |
| Keon Coleman, Buff. | 59 | 38 | 404 | 10.6 | 4 | 64.4% |
| Rashid Shaheed, 2TM | 92 | 59 | 687 | 11.6 | 2 | 64.1% |
| Chris Olave, N.O. | 156 | 100 | 1163 | 11.6 | 9 | 64.1% |
| CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 117 | 75 | 1077 | 14.4 | 3 | 64.1% |
| Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 100 | 64 | 910 | 14.2 | 6 | 64.0% |
| Jameson Williams, Det. | 102 | 65 | 1117 | 17.2 | 7 | 63.7% |
| Christian Watson, G.B. | 55 | 35 | 611 | 17.5 | 6 | 63.6% |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | 60 | 38 | 582 | 15.3 | 3 | 63.3% |
| Troy Franklin, Den. | 104 | 65 | 709 | 10.9 | 6 | 62.5% |
| Ladd McConkey, LAC | 106 | 66 | 789 | 12.0 | 6 | 62.3% |
| Tre Tucker, L.V. | 92 | 57 | 696 | 12.2 | 5 | 62.0% |
| Michael Wilson, Ari. | 126 | 78 | 1006 | 12.9 | 7 | 61.9% |
| Xavier Hutchinson, Hou. | 57 | 35 | 428 | 12.2 | 3 | 61.4% |
| Jauan Jennings, S.F. | 90 | 55 | 643 | 11.7 | 9 | 61.1% |
| Parker Washington, Jac. | 95 | 58 | 847 | 14.6 | 5 | 61.1% |
| Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 59 | 36 | 395 | 11.0 | 4 | 61.0% |
| Drake London, Atl. | 112 | 68 | 919 | 13.5 | 7 | 60.7% |
| Quentin Johnston, LAC | 84 | 51 | 735 | 14.4 | 8 | 60.7% |
| Jayden Higgins, Hou. | 68 | 41 | 525 | 12.8 | 6 | 60.3% |
| Tee Higgins, Cin. | 98 | 59 | 846 | 14.3 | 11 | 60.2% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus, Chi. | 65 | 39 | 313 | 8.0 | 2 | 60.0% |
| Courtland Sutton, Den. | 124 | 74 | 1017 | 13.7 | 7 | 59.7% |
| DK Metcalf, Pitt. | 99 | 59 | 850 | 14.4 | 6 | 59.6% |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 141 | 84 | 1048 | 12.5 | 2 | 59.6% |
| Nico Collins, Hou. | 120 | 71 | 1117 | 15.7 | 6 | 59.2% |
| DJ Moore, Chi. | 85 | 50 | 682 | 13.6 | 6 | 58.8% |
| Darius Slayton, NYG | 63 | 37 | 538 | 14.5 | 1 | 58.7% |
| Tyler Lockett, 2TM | 55 | 32 | 291 | 9.1 | 1 | 58.2% |
| Xavier Worthy, K.C. | 73 | 42 | 532 | 12.7 | 1 | 57.5% |
| Tetairoa McMillan, Car. | 122 | 70 | 1014 | 14.5 | 7 | 57.4% |
| Andrei Iosivas, Cin. | 58 | 33 | 435 | 13.2 | 2 | 56.9% |
| Calvin Austin, Pitt. | 55 | 31 | 372 | 12.0 | 3 | 56.4% |
| Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 73 | 41 | 608 | 14.8 | 4 | 56.2% |
| Alec Pierce, Ind. | 84 | 47 | 1003 | 21.3 | 6 | 56.0% |
| Van Jefferson, Ten. | 52 | 29 | 350 | 12.1 | 1 | 55.8% |
| Jalen Nailor, Min. | 53 | 29 | 444 | 15.3 | 4 | 54.7% |
| Xavier Legette, Car. | 64 | 35 | 363 | 10.4 | 3 | 54.7% |
| Christian Kirk, Hou. | 52 | 28 | 239 | 8.5 | 1 | 53.8% |
| Jordan Addison, Min. | 79 | 42 | 610 | 14.5 | 3 | 53.2% |
| Brian Thomas, Jac. | 91 | 48 | 707 | 14.7 | 2 | 52.7% |
| Davante Adams, LAR | 114 | 60 | 789 | 13.2 | 14 | 52.6% |
| Emeka Egbuka, T.B. | 127 | 63 | 938 | 14.9 | 6 | 49.6% |
| Rome Odunze, Chi. | 90 | 44 | 661 | 15.0 | 6 | 48.9% |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 62 | 30 | 368 | 12.3 | 3 | 48.4% |
| Jerry Jeudy, Cle. | 106 | 50 | 602 | 12.0 | 2 | 47.2% |
| Elic Ayomanor, Ten. | 89 | 41 | 515 | 12.6 | 4 | 46.1% |
| Adonai Mitchell, 2TM | 74 | 33 | 453 | 13.7 | 2 | 44.6% |
| Darnell Mooney, Atl. | 72 | 32 | 443 | 13.8 | 1 | 44.4% |
Looking at the table, it's notable a couple of guys who are really close to Evans. One is fellow Bucs wideout Emeka Egbuka, at just over 49 percent. Same quarterback, so maybe we can blame Baker Mayfield for some of the issues. And Rome Odunze is also down there; he looked like one of the league's better young wideouts the first part of the season. No one is writing him off after an injury-marred rest of the year.
In general I've been a little cautious with older wideouts. Davante Adams was a guy I had little interest in last year (and was wrong). Elsewhere on this page we're talking about Tyreek Hill.
Might be best for Evans to wind up elsewhere, where perhaps there's less competition for targets than in Tampa Bay. Baltimore? Philadelphia if they ship off A.J. Brown? In any case, one of the interesting free agents to track over the next few weeks.
--Andy Richardson
