Freddie Freeman is on the backend of his career, but he remains a winning player for fantasy rosters at his current draft position.

As draft season heats up, the margins between profit and regret often come down to identifying players whose prices don’t properly reflect their true range of outcomes. Sleepers aren’t always unproven names. They can be aging stars, post-hype breakouts, or boring veterans whose skill sets remain undervalued by the market. On the flip side, busts aren’t bad players, but rather those being drafted at or near their ceiling with little room for error. Below are several hitters who stand out as values to target, along with others whose current cost carries more risk than reward in 2026 drafts.

Sleepers

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s remarkable that Freeman, a consensus first-round pick for much of the last decade, can even qualify as a sleeper. Yet entering his age-36 season, an ADP outside the top 60 places him squarely in that category. Freeman is coming off what qualifies as a “down year” by his lofty standards, hitting .295 with 24 home runs, 90 RBI, 81 runs scored, and six stolen bases. Several underlying metrics also pointed to decline, including an xBA hovering near .270 for a second straight season, a strikeout rate that spiked to 20% (his worst since 2016), an increased whiff rate, and a speed score that has steadily fallen.

What’s more encouraging is the version of Freeman we saw in the second half. After recovering from offseason ankle surgery that clearly hampered him early and limited his mobility on the bases, Freeman looked much more like himself down the stretch. Over his final 63 games, he hit .293 with 14 home runs, 41 RBI, five stolen bases, and a sub-18% strikeout rate. The counting stats will continue to pile up in Los Angeles’ elite lineup, and if he’s fully healthy, Freeman still has a realistic path back to top-three production at the position. The age-related collapse risk is already baked into his ADP, but the upside remains substantial.

Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bays

It took patience, but Aranda’s long track record of minor-league production finally translated to the majors last season when he stayed healthy. In 106 games, he hit .316 with 14 home runs, 59 RBI, and 56 runs scored, earning an All-Star nod before a fractured wrist in late July cut his breakout short.

The performance shouldn’t have come as a shock for those paying attention. Aranda owns a career .870 OPS in the minors, including a dominant .959 mark at Triple-A, and he torched Durham in 2023 to the tune of a .339-25-81 line in just 95 games. His Baseball Savant page is almost entirely red, highlighted by a 93 mph average exit velocity, a .291 xBA, and a .515 xSLG. In other words, the production was fully supported by the underlying data. Despite that, Aranda’s ADP hovering near 180 suggests lingering skepticism from the market, making him one of the cleaner profit opportunities at the corner infield spots.

Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies

Trade rumors and uncertainty have a way of suppressing draft prices, and Bohm appears to be a beneficiary of that dynamic. His ADP near 260 is difficult to reconcile with a career .279 hitter who is just one year removed from back-to-back 97-RBI seasons. Philadelphia’s clear re-endorsement of Bohm only strengthens what already looked like an appealing value.

Manager Rob Thomson has stated he prefers Bohm in the No. 4 spot, where he spent much of 2024. While Bohm doesn’t possess prototypical cleanup power, the Phillies lack lineup depth beyond Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper, creating plenty of run-producing opportunities. Add in Bohm’s steady batting average—ranging from .274 to .287 over the last four seasons—and a consistently low strikeout rate between 14–17%, and you’re looking at a very high floor paired with sneaky RBI upside at a bargain price.

Luis Arraez, 1B, San Francisco Giants

Arraez didn’t sign until February, which has helped keep his ADP depressed at around 271. He’s also one of the more polarizing hitters in fantasy. The positives are undeniable: a career .317 batting average, never finishing below .292 over a full season, and an average of 77 runs scored per year since 2022. The drawbacks are just as obvious, with only 36 home runs and 31 stolen bases across seven seasons, forcing managers to build carefully around his category deficiencies.

At this price, though, Arraez becomes pure profit. His floor is among the highest in fantasy thanks to elite contact skills and remarkable consistency, and he’s likely to slot into a favorable spot in the Giants’ lineup. Over the last three seasons, Arraez has finished 88th, 115th, and 149th overall on the FanGraphs Player Rater, and he’s expected to gain second base eligibility in most leagues by early April. While there’s a small opportunity cost in holding a temporary middle-infield replacement, the discount more than compensates for the inconvenience.

Busts

Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

Caminero’s monster 2025 breakout has pushed him into first-round conversations, and his price continues to climb amid injuries to Corbin Carroll and Francisco Lindor. After an injury-plagued 2024, the former elite prospect exploded for 45 home runs and 110 RBI last season. A repeat would certainly justify the cost—but paying for that outcome leaves little margin for error.

Caminero’s elite exit velocity at age 22 is real, and his 19% strikeout rate suggests more batting average upside than last year’s .264 mark. Still, context matters. He benefited from an extremely hitter-friendly home park, posting an OPS that was 211 points higher at home, while Tropicana Field plays neutral for right-handed power. He also offers minimal speed, with a speed score in the 30th percentile and no history of meaningful stolen base production. Add in durability concerns—he’d never played more than 117 games in a season prior to 2025—and the risk profile becomes uncomfortable at his current price.

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics

Kurtz’s rapid rise has vaulted him to an ADP near 18, making him the top first baseman off the board ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The rookie hit .290 with 36 home runs and 86 RBI in just 117 games after a late-April promotion, and he took full advantage of Sacramento’s hitter-friendly environment, where 22 of his 36 homers were launched.

While Kurtz will continue to benefit from favorable parks, including games in Las Vegas during June, there are reasons to temper expectations. Despite elite exit velocity, his xBA sat at just .245, and he struggled badly against left-handed pitching (.197 with nine homers in 153 plate appearances). A 31% strikeout rate is equally concerning, and signs of fatigue showed up late with a .221 batting average in September. Without speed to buoy his value, Kurtz’s profile becomes fragile if the batting average slips, making his current cost difficult to justify.

Rafael Devers, 1B, San Francisco Giants

Devers’ 2025 season was strange but still productive. After serving primarily as a DH in Boston, he was dealt to San Francisco in a shocking mid-June trade. The park-factor shift from Fenway to Oracle Park is dramatic, and it showed up immediately. Fenway is one of the league’s best parks for left-handed hitters, while Oracle has consistently suppressed offense across the board.

To Devers’ credit, he still managed 20 home runs and 51 RBI in 90 games as a Giant, but his batting average dipped to .236 after hitting .272 in Boston. More troubling are the broader trends. After battling knee and shoulder issues in 2024, his strikeout rate ballooned to 26% last season, and he struggled against lefties for a second straight year. Statcast data also hints at declining bat speed—a concerning sign for a power hitter approaching age 30. His résumé still carries weight, but an ADP near 50 prices in far more certainty than the profile currently offers.

Josh Naylor, 1B, Seattle Mariners

Naylor capitalized on his walk year in 2025, delivering one of the best fantasy seasons of his career. His 128 OPS+ ranked second-best, and his production spiked across the board—most notably with an astonishing 30 stolen bases despite sprint speed in the third percentile. Even more surprising, he was caught only twice and actually accelerated his running game after being traded to Seattle, swiping 19 bags in just 54 games.

While the new rules have encouraged more aggression on the bases, sustained stolen base breakouts from mid-career players with limited speed are rare. There’s also a mild park downgrade from Cleveland to Seattle, though both stadiums rank among the worst for left-handed hitters. Naylor’s contact-heavy approach, sub-14% strikeout rate, and career-best max exit velocity are all positives, and Seattle’s lineup depth should help his counting stats. Still, with an ADP near 65, drafters are paying for last year’s stolen base surge—a bet that could quickly sour if that category regresses.