When the NFL Draft kicks off next month, there will be a couple of wide receivers drafted early. (And maybe more.) But there's a consensus top 2, and they come from schools on a pretty strong hit rate lately.
Carnell Tate seems to be the favorite to go first at the position, which makes sense. The Ohio State wideout didn't light up the score sheet (that would be Jeremiah Smith, who's a year away from being a top-10 pick), but did catch 9 touchdowns in 11 games. And Ohio State's on a nice hot streak: below are the best seasons from all players drafted in the first three rounds at the position in the last 10 years. Five had top 10 seasons (PPR), and three others at least made it into the top 30.
| OHIO STATE WRS, RD 1-3, BEST SEASONS (2016-2025) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Player | Tgt | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2025 | 1 | Emeka Egbuka, T.B. | 127 | 63 | 938 | 6 | 23 |
| 2024 | 1 | Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 116 | 62 | 885 | 8 | 30 |
| 2025 | 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 163 | 119 | 1793 | 10 | 2 |
| 2025 | 1 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 156 | 100 | 1163 | 9 | 6 |
| 2024 | 1 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 154 | 101 | 1104 | 7 | 9 |
| 2024 | 3 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 117 | 82 | 1096 | 13 | 7 |
| 2022 | 2 | Parris Campbell, Ind. | 91 | 63 | 623 | 3 | 48 |
| 2020 | 2 | Curtis Samuel, Car. | 97 | 77 | 851 | 5 | 24 |
| 2019 | 2 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 185 | 149 | 1725 | 9 | 1 |
| 2017 | 3 | Braxton Miller, Hou. | 29 | 19 | 162 | 1 | 119 |
It's possible, however, that there will be teams who like Southern California prospect Makai Lemon more. Bigger production last year (79 catches, 1,156 yards and 13 total touchdowns), and Southern Cal has also had some hits lately. Not as many (and forgive me for dipping into the 4th round), but those guys have also worked out well. Here are there wideouts selected in the first four rounds since 2016. Three guys with at least one season in the top 10, and two others who were close.
| SOUTHERN CAL WRS, RD 1-4, BEST SEASONS (2016-2025) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | Tgt | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 1 | 2024 | Jordan Addison, Min. | 99 | 63 | 875 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | 2024 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 141 | 115 | 1263 | 12 | 2 |
| 1 | 2024 | Drake London, Atl. | 158 | 100 | 1271 | 9 | 5 |
| 2 | 2023 | Michael Pittman, Ind. | 156 | 109 | 1152 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | 2018 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pit. | 166 | 111 | 1426 | 7 | 8 |
Wideouts ran yesterday at the combine, with Tate running a 4.53; not a burner. Lemon didn't run, which could be viewed as a red flag; if you think your time would help your draft stock, you run. Not necessarily a big deal though; he's frequently compared to Amon-Ra with his route-running and ball skills standing out, not as someone who's going to be running by people.
(Interesting aside, I'm also seeing him compared to Ohio State's Smith-Njigba.)
Anyway, maybe Lemon -- who says he'll run at his Pro Day -- will wind up being the first wideout selected. He's got the better college production, he was really good in terms of making contested catches, and he's got a school that has also been turning out the hits. With both, I really want to see where they're going to end up before locking in on a favorite, but I'm curious if readers have a strong favorite already.
Either way, they're both going to be top 5 picks in rookie drafts this year.
--Andy Richardson
