The Raiders signed Kirk Cousins yesterday, increasing the odds that the rookie quarterback they're expected to select -- Fernando Mendoza -- will open his career holding a clipboard. The question becomes, is it beneficial to his chances of success?
There are different ways of looking at it. In the past I've pointed out how the vast majority of quarterbacks selected in the top 10 picks or so are immediate starters as rookies. In the last decade, there have been 26 quarterbacks selected in the top 10 picks. Of those players, six haven't started at least 10 games, three of whom (Lance, Richardson, McCarthy) got hurt. Mahomes (1 start), Goff (7) and Penix (3) are the guys who held clipboards.
Here I'm looking at the best seasons of the top-10 pick quarterbacks (since 2000) who didn't start at least 10 games their rookie seasons. There are 13, some of whom got hurt, some of whom opened as backups behind capable veterans.
Of the 13 who mostly watched, just over half -- 7 -- had a top 10 season at some point in their career. Table shows numbers from each quarterback's best season. (1 point for every 20 passing and 10 rushing yards, 4-point TD passes.)
The other six include three busts and three guys who it's maybe too early to call (but early returns aren't great).
| TOP-10 DRAFT PICKS MAKING UNDER 10 STARTS AS ROOKIES, 2000- | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Draft | Best | Player | Yr | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | Rk |
| 1 | 2003 | 2005 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 3 | 3836 | 32 | 12 | 41 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | 2017 | 2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 2 | 5097 | 50 | 12 | 272 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 2004 | 2005 | Eli Manning, NYG | 2 | 3762 | 24 | 17 | 80 | 1 | 4 |
| 1 | 2001 | 2002 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 2 | 2936 | 16 | 8 | 777 | 8 | 4 |
| 4 | 2004 | 2010 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 7 | 4710 | 30 | 13 | 52 | 0 | 4 |
| 1 | 2005 | 2017 | Alex Smith, K.C. | 13 | 4042 | 26 | 5 | 355 | 1 | 6 |
| 1 | 2016 | 2018 | Jared Goff, LAR | 3 | 4688 | 32 | 12 | 108 | 2 | 6 |
| 1 | 2007 | 2008 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 2 | 2423 | 13 | 8 | 127 | 1 | 24 |
| 4 | 2023 | 2024 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 2 | 1814 | 8 | 12 | 499 | 6 | 25 |
| 10 | 2024 | 2025 | J.J. McCarthy, Min. | 2 | 1632 | 11 | 12 | 181 | 4 | 28 |
| 8 | 2011 | 2012 | Jake Locker, Ten. | 2 | 2176 | 10 | 11 | 291 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | 2024 | 2025 | Michael Penix, Atl. | 2 | 1982 | 9 | 3 | 70 | 1 | 33 |
| 3 | 2021 | 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 1 | 603 | 5 | 2 | 168 | 1 | 40 |
Assuming the Raiders draft Mendoza, the Cousins signing probably means he'll open on the bench. Probably. But I don't think Cousins is very good anymore, and I know the receiving corps isn't, making success especially difficult. Most likely it'll be Mendoza sooner rather than later. I think he'll be starting by October.
--Andy Richardson
