KC Concepcion is an intriguing receiver prospect. On the one hand, he’s really explosive with the ball in his hands, consistently turning short catches into something more. On the other hand, he sure had a lot of drops last year.
Concepcion dropped 7 passes last year at Texas A&M. He also dropped 7 in his previous season. That’s 14 drops versus 114 catches, which is a worrying rate.
In the last four drafts, 40 wide receivers have been picked with first- or second-round draft picks. Only three of those guys had worse drop rates than Concepcion in their final college season.
In the chart below, I have the 2026 prospects tagged with black dots. Note that the tendency is for fewer drops. All of the top receiving prospects this year except Concepcion are above-average, with Carnell Tate (who’s the only receiver listed who didn’t have any drops at all) leading the way.
For each player, you’re seeing only his final season numbers. (For George Pickens, he hardly played in his final year at Georgia, so I included his last two years).
| DROP RATES FOR RECEIVERS IN FIRST TWO ROUNDS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | School | No | Drops | Pct |
| 2026 | • Carnell Tate | Ohio State | 51 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | • Germie Bernard | Alabama | 64 | 1 | 1.5% |
| 2025 | Jack Bech | Texas Christian | 62 | 1 | 1.6% |
| 2026 | • Jordyn Tyson | Arizona State | 61 | 1 | 1.6% |
| 2026 | • Antonio Williams | Clemson | 55 | 1 | 1.8% |
| 2024 | Adonai Mitchell | Texas | 55 | 1 | 1.8% |
| 2022 | Jahan Dotson | Penn State | 91 | 2 | 2.2% |
| 2025 | Jayden Higgins | Iowa State | 87 | 2 | 2.2% |
| 2026 | • Makai Lemon | Southern Cal | 79 | 2 | 2.5% |
| 2026 | • Malachi Fields | Notre Dame | 36 | 1 | 2.7% |
| 2024 | Xavier Legette | South Carolina | 71 | 2 | 2.7% |
| 2024 | Ricky Pearsall | Florida | 65 | 2 | 3.0% |
| 2025 | Travis Hunter | Colorado | 96 | 3 | 3.0% |
| 2026 | • Denzel Boston | Washington | 62 | 2 | 3.1% |
| 2024 | Rome Odunze | Washington | 92 | 3 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | Jordan Addison | Southern Cal | 59 | 2 | 3.3% |
| 2024 | Keon Coleman | Florida State | 50 | 2 | 3.8% |
| 2026 | • Chris Bell | Louisville | 72 | 3 | 4.0% |
| 2022 | Skyy Moore | Western Michigan | 95 | 4 | 4.0% |
| 2026 | • Omar Cooper | Indiana | 69 | 3 | 4.2% |
| 2022 | Tyquan Thornton | Baylor | 62 | 3 | 4.6% |
| 2025 | Luther Burden | Missouri | 61 | 3 | 4.7% |
| 2023 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Ohio State | 110 | 6 | 5.2% |
| 2024 | Malik Nabers | Louisiana State | 89 | 5 | 5.3% |
| 2024 | Ja'Lynn Polk | Washington | 69 | 4 | 5.5% |
| 2022 | Treylon Burks | Arkansas | 66 | 4 | 5.7% |
| 2025 | Emeka Egbuka | Ohio State | 81 | 5 | 5.8% |
| 2024 | Ladd McConkey | Georgia | 30 | 2 | 6.3% |
| 2024 | Xavier Worthy | Texas | 75 | 5 | 6.3% |
| 2022 | Wan'Dale Robinson | Kentucky | 104 | 7 | 6.3% |
| 2025 | Matthew Golden | Texas | 58 | 4 | 6.5% |
| 2022 | George Pickens | Georgia | 41 | 3 | 6.8% |
| 2024 | Brian Thomas | Louisiana State | 68 | 5 | 6.8% |
| 2023 | Marvin Mims | Oklahoma | 54 | 4 | 6.9% |
| 2022 | Jameson Williams | Alabama | 79 | 6 | 7.1% |
| 2022 | Alec Pierce | Cincinnati | 52 | 4 | 7.1% |
| 2022 | Chris Olave | Ohio State | 65 | 5 | 7.1% |
| 2023 | Jonathan Mingo | Mississippi | 51 | 4 | 7.3% |
| 2025 | Tre Harris | Mississippi | 60 | 5 | 7.7% |
| 2022 | John Metchie | Alabama | 96 | 8 | 7.7% |
| 2025 | Tetairoa McMillan | Arizona | 84 | 7 | 7.7% |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson | Ohio State | 70 | 6 | 7.9% |
| 2024 | Marvin Harrison | Ohio State | 67 | 6 | 8.2% |
| 2023 | Jayden Reed | Michigan State | 55 | 5 | 8.3% |
| 2022 | Drake London | Southern Cal | 88 | 8 | 8.3% |
| 2023 | Rashee Rice | Southern Methodist | 96 | 9 | 8.6% |
| 2026 | • KC Concepcion | Texas A&M | 61 | 7 | 10.3% |
| 2023 | Zay Flowers | Boston College | 78 | 9 | 10.3% |
| 2022 | Christian Watson | North Dakota State | 43 | 5 | 10.4% |
| 2023 | Quentin Johnston | Texas Christian | 60 | 8 | 11.8% |
At the same time, drops aren’t necessarily a constant like speed or size. If a player is small or slow, a team knows when it’s taking him that he’ll always be small and slow. With drops, some teams might feel that they can correct the problem through some combination of usage, coaching and having him put in some extra time on the jugs machine at training camp.
On this front, look again at the 40 wide receivers who’ve been picked ioin the first two rounds in the last four drafts. This time, I have added also their drop data from their rookie season – catches, drops and percentage of drops. There is no a strong correlation between college drops and pro drops.
In the chart, I have put in bold the 10 wide receivers who were the worst droppers as rookies. They tendc to come from the guys who caught it well in college. (In the chart, the receivers are still in the same order). The 10 best receivers at avoiding drops (tagged with black dots) tend to be guys who dropped balls in college.
The three guys who averaged more drops than Concepcion in college were Quentin Johnston, Christian Watson and Zay Flowers. Watson dropped a long touchdown on the first ball thrown his way an Johnston has had some drop issues, but all three o f those guys have been good pros.
The final column in the chart (rank) shows where the players ranks among these 40 receivers via percentage of drops as a rookie – 1 being the best and 40 being the worst.
| COLLEGE DROPS VERSUS ROOKIE YEAR DROPS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player, team | College | Rookie Yr | Rk |
| 2025 | • Jack Bech, L.V. | 62-1-1.6% | 20-1-4.8% | 10 |
| 2024 | Adonai Mitchell, Ind. | 55-1-1.8% | 23-4-14.8% | 36 |
| 2022 | Jahan Dotson, Was. | 91-2-2.2% | 35-6-14.6% | 35 |
| 2025 | Jayden Higgins, Hou. | 87-2-2.2% | 41-3-6.8% | 16 |
| 2024 | Xavier Legette, Car. | 71-2-2.7% | 49-7-12.5% | 32 |
| 2024 | • Ricky Pearsall, S.F. | 65-2-3.0% | 31-0-0% | 1 |
| 2025 | Travis Hunter, Jac. | 96-3-3.0% | 28-2-6.7% | 15 |
| 2024 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 92-3-3.2% | 54-6-10.0% | 28 |
| 2023 | • Jordan Addison, Min. | 59-2-3.3% | 70-3-4.1% | 5 |
| 2024 | Keon Coleman, Buf. | 50-2-3.8% | 29-4-12.1% | 31 |
| 2022 | • Skyy Moore, K.C. | 95-4-4.0% | 22-1-4.3% | 7 |
| 2022 | Tyquan Thornton, N.E. | 62-3-4.6% | 22-5-18.5% | 38 |
| 2025 | Luther Burden, Chi. | 61-3-4.7% | 47-4-7.8% | 22 |
| 2023 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 110-6-5.2% | 63-10-13.7% | 34 |
| 2024 | Malik Nabers, NYG | 89-5-5.3% | 109-9-7.6% | 21 |
| 2024 | Ja'Lynn Polk, N.E. | 69-4-5.5% | 12-4-25.0% | 39 |
| 2022 | Treylon Burks, Ten. | 66-4-5.7% | 33-3-8.3% | 23 |
| 2025 | Emeka Egbuka, T.B. | 81-5-5.8% | 63-9-12.5% | 33 |
| 2024 | Ladd McConkey, LAC | 30-2-6.3% | 82-5-5.7% | 14 |
| 2024 | Xavier Worthy, K.C. | 75-5-6.3% | 59-7-10.6% | 30 |
| 2022 | • Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 104-7-6.3% | 23-1-4.2% | 6 |
| 2025 | • Matthew Golden, G.B. | 58-4-6.5% | 29-1-3.3% | 3 |
| 2022 | George Pickens, Pit. | 41-3-6.8% | 52-3-5.5% | 12 |
| 2024 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 68-5-6.8% | 87-7-7.4% | 19 |
| 2023 | • Marvin Mims, Den. | 54-4-6.9% | 22-1-4.3% | 8 |
| 2022 | Jameson Williams, Det. | 79-6-7.1% | 1-2-66.7% | 40 |
| 2022 | Alec Pierce, Ind. | 52-4-7.1% | 41-3-6.8% | 17 |
| 2022 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 65-5-7.1% | 72-7-8.9% | 25 |
| 2023 | Jonathan Mingo, Car. | 51-4-7.3% | 43-4-8.5% | 24 |
| 2025 | • Tre Harris, LAC | 60-5-7.7% | 30-1-3.2% | 2 |
| 2025 | Tetairoa McMillan, Car. | 84-7-7.7% | 70-8-10.3% | 29 |
| 2022 | John Metchie, Hou. | 96-8-7.7% | 16-3-15.8% | 37 |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 70-6-7.9% | 83-5-5.7% | 13 |
| 2024 | Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 67-6-8.2% | 62-5-7.5% | 20 |
| 2022 | • Drake London, Atl. | 88-8-8.3% | 72-3-4.0% | 4 |
| 2023 | • Jayden Reed, G.B. | 55-5-8.3% | 64-3-4.5% | 9 |
| 2023 | Rashee Rice, K.C. | 96-9-8.6% | 79-8-9.2% | 27 |
| 2023 | Zay Flowers, Bal. | 78-9-10.3% | 77-4-4.9% | 11 |
| 2022 | Christian Watson, G.B. | 43-5-10.4% | 41-4-8.9% | 26 |
| 2023 | Quentin Johnston, LAC | 60-8-11.8% | 38-3-7.3% | 18 |
—Ian Allan
