With running backs, I like to look as much at teams as players. That is, while the talent of the individual is important, his situation plays a massive role in what kind of numbers he’ll put up.
Surrounding casts matter, and scheme matters. That is, how often will they be going to a running back, and will he have decent holes to run through?
With this in mind, it makes sense to look at the kind of stats that typically flow through each team. All of the teams played 17 games last year, and it makes some sense to look at how much production they got out of the running back position in that season.
Three teams got at least 500 points out of their running backs last year: 49ers, Lions, Falcons. That’s using PPR scoring. When selecting running backs who are second-string players, I in general prefer to focus on players from these kind of teams. Certainly Brian Robinson; I think he’ll step in nicely for Atlanta, should its other Robinson get hurt. I’m not as crazy about Isiah Pacheco (for the Lions), given his durability issues and lack of vision as a runner.
I’m definitely interested in the No. 2 back in San Francisco, given Christian McCaffrey’s age and history of injuries. But we’ll have to figure out in August whether Jordan James, Kaelon Black or Isaac Guerendo will fill that role. (I will guess Jordan James for now.)
At the other end of the spectrum, the Saints finished with only half as much production as those teams last year and has the same play caller coming back – Kellen Moore. So I’m not a big Travis Etienne fan.
| TEAM RUNNING BACK PRODUCTION (PPR) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Run | Rec | Total |
| San Francisco | 231.9 | 304.2 | 536.1 |
| Detroit | 321.8 | 211.8 | 533.6 |
| Atlanta | 295.2 | 208.6 | 503.8 |
| Buffalo | 300.0 | 171.4 | 471.4 |
| Pittsburgh | 222.4 | 226.8 | 449.2 |
| Miami | 262.6 | 178.6 | 441.2 |
| Baltimore | 319.6 | 112.8 | 432.4 |
| New England | 279.8 | 147.1 | 426.9 |
| Indianapolis | 290.5 | 124.5 | 415.0 |
| Denver | 228.6 | 178.4 | 407.0 |
| NY Giants | 230.7 | 166.6 | 397.3 |
| LA Rams | 300.4 | 93.7 | 394.1 |
| Seattle | 296.8 | 97.1 | 393.9 |
| Chicago | 282.2 | 104.3 | 386.5 |
| Dallas | 274.6 | 109.8 | 384.4 |
| Tampa Bay | 221.7 | 154.9 | 376.6 |
| Jacksonville | 226.1 | 146.5 | 372.6 |
| Cincinnati | 198.8 | 170.3 | 369.1 |
| Green Bay | 249.1 | 117.2 | 366.3 |
| Carolina | 210.1 | 149.3 | 359.4 |
| Cleveland | 168.4 | 169.1 | 337.5 |
| Arizona | 158.7 | 173.5 | 332.2 |
| NY Jets | 184.3 | 144.2 | 328.5 |
| Washington | 246.9 | 75.2 | 322.1 |
| Minnesota | 209.1 | 110.0 | 319.1 |
| Philadelphia | 213.3 | 102.2 | 315.5 |
| LA Chargers | 194.0 | 119.6 | 313.6 |
| Tennessee | 183.2 | 125.0 | 308.2 |
| Kansas City | 178.7 | 124.5 | 303.2 |
| Houston | 189.1 | 110.5 | 299.6 |
| Las Vegas | 142.0 | 149.8 | 291.8 |
| New Orleans | 141.6 | 110.9 | 252.5 |
As long as we’ve got the numbers out, let’s also look closer as the team numbers for rushing and passing.
For rushing, I notice that four of the top 6 teams from last year were teams that ranked 8th or lower when including other players. That can be attributed to the Lions, Rams, Seahawks and Falcons not getting much rushing from the quarterback position. They tended to rely more on their running backs when running the ball.
The Giants, on the other hand, ranked 5th in rushing in general but only 15th in terms of running the ball with running backs.
In the chart below, the “points” column shows production using 6 points for each rushing touchdown and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards.
| RUSHING PRODUCTION (RB only) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Pts | All Pos |
| 1 | Detroit | 407 | 1,958 | 4.8 | 21 | 321.8 | 8 |
| 2 | Baltimore | 392 | 2,056 | 5.2 | 19 | 319.6 | 2 |
| 3 | LA Rams | 413 | 2,044 | 4.9 | 16 | 300.4 | 12 |
| 4 | Buffalo | 419 | 2,100 | 5.0 | 15 | 300.0 | 1 |
| 5 | Seattle | 439 | 1,888 | 4.3 | 18 | 296.8 | 10 |
| 6 | Atlanta | 439 | 2,052 | 4.7 | 15 | 295.2 | 13 |
| 7 | Indianapolis | 373 | 1,765 | 4.7 | 19 | 290.5 | 3 |
| 8 | Chicago | 400 | 1,922 | 4.8 | 15 | 282.2 | 4 |
| 9 | New England | 371 | 1,718 | 4.6 | 18 | 279.8 | 6 |
| 10 | Dallas | 383 | 1,786 | 4.7 | 16 | 274.6 | 11 |
| 11 | Miami | 380 | 1,846 | 4.9 | 13 | 262.6 | 17 |
| 12 | Green Bay | 386 | 1,531 | 4.0 | 16 | 249.1 | 14 |
| 13 | Washington | 345 | 1,569 | 4.5 | 15 | 246.9 | 7 |
| 14 | San Francisco | 405 | 1,599 | 3.9 | 12 | 231.9 | 21 |
| 15 | NY Giants | 396 | 1,587 | 4.0 | 12 | 230.7 | 5 |
| 16 | Denver | 354 | 1,566 | 4.4 | 12 | 228.6 | 15 |
| 17 | Jacksonville | 373 | 1,541 | 4.1 | 12 | 226.1 | 9 |
| 18 | Pittsburgh | 353 | 1,564 | 4.4 | 11 | 222.4 | 22 |
| 19 | Tampa Bay | 398 | 1,497 | 3.8 | 12 | 221.7 | 20 |
| 20 | Philadelphia | 364 | 1,593 | 4.4 | 9 | 213.3 | 16 |
| 21 | Carolina | 391 | 1,681 | 4.3 | 7 | 210.1 | 25 |
| 22 | Minnesota | 348 | 1,491 | 4.3 | 10 | 209.1 | 19 |
| 23 | Cincinnati | 334 | 1,448 | 4.3 | 9 | 198.8 | 27 |
| 24 | LA Chargers | 359 | 1,460 | 4.1 | 8 | 194.0 | 24 |
| 25 | Houston | 399 | 1,531 | 3.8 | 6 | 189.1 | 26 |
| 26 | NY Jets | 334 | 1,483 | 4.4 | 6 | 184.3 | 18 |
| 27 | Tennessee | 328 | 1,412 | 4.3 | 7 | 183.2 | 30 |
| 28 | Kansas City | 336 | 1,247 | 3.7 | 9 | 178.7 | 23 |
| 29 | Cleveland | 353 | 1,204 | 3.4 | 8 | 168.4 | 28 |
| 30 | Arizona | 292 | 1,227 | 4.2 | 6 | 158.7 | 31 |
| 31 | Las Vegas | 307 | 1,120 | 3.6 | 5 | 142.0 | 32 |
| 32 | New Orleans | 300 | 1,116 | 3.7 | 5 | 141.6 | 29 |
For those using PPR scoring, receiving production is key. You get not only the 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 receiving yards, but also an additional point for every catch.
Using PPR scoring, five of the worst six offenses for running backs are teams that folks generally are interested in – Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, Bears and Cowboys. (Washington was the worst team last year at using its running backs in the passing game.)
| RECEIVING PRODUCTION (RB only) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | No | Yards | Avg | TD | Pts | All Pos |
| 1 | San Francisco | 134 | 1,162 | 8.7 | 9 | 304.2 | 6 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | 114 | 828 | 7.3 | 5 | 226.8 | 17 |
| 3 | Detroit | 101 | 808 | 8.0 | 5 | 211.8 | 3 |
| 4 | Atlanta | 93 | 916 | 9.8 | 4 | 208.6 | 23 |
| 5 | Miami | 87 | 616 | 7.1 | 5 | 178.6 | 25 |
| 6 | Denver | 87 | 614 | 7.1 | 5 | 178.4 | 8 |
| 7 | Arizona | 91 | 645 | 7.1 | 3 | 173.5 | 5 |
| 8 | Buffalo | 69 | 664 | 9.6 | 6 | 171.4 | 12 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | 87 | 533 | 6.1 | 5 | 170.3 | 4 |
| 10 | Cleveland | 95 | 621 | 6.5 | 2 | 169.1 | 29 |
| 11 | NY Giants | 78 | 646 | 8.3 | 4 | 166.6 | 22 |
| 12 | Tampa Bay | 78 | 529 | 6.8 | 4 | 154.9 | 18 |
| 13 | Las Vegas | 74 | 458 | 6.2 | 5 | 149.8 | 26 |
| 14 | Carolina | 72 | 533 | 7.4 | 4 | 149.3 | 24 |
| 15 | New England | 71 | 581 | 8.2 | 3 | 147.1 | 7 |
| 16 | Jacksonville | 56 | 425 | 7.6 | 8 | 146.5 | 9 |
| 17 | NY Jets | 66 | 602 | 9.1 | 3 | 144.2 | 32 |
| 18 | Tennessee | 78 | 470 | 6.0 | 0 | 125.0 | 27 |
| 19 | Indianapolis | 64 | 485 | 7.6 | 2 | 124.5 | 10 |
| 20 | Kansas City | 64 | 425 | 6.6 | 3 | 124.5 | 16 |
| 21 | LA Chargers | 63 | 386 | 6.1 | 3 | 119.6 | 11 |
| 22 | Green Bay | 64 | 472 | 7.4 | 1 | 117.2 | 20 |
| 23 | Baltimore | 55 | 458 | 8.3 | 2 | 112.8 | 28 |
| 24 | New Orleans | 68 | 429 | 6.3 | 0 | 110.9 | 13 |
| 25 | Houston | 54 | 385 | 7.1 | 3 | 110.5 | 14 |
| 26 | Minnesota | 61 | 370 | 6.1 | 2 | 110.0 | 31 |
| 27 | Dallas | 61 | 308 | 5.0 | 3 | 109.8 | 2 |
| 28 | Chicago | 52 | 463 | 8.9 | 1 | 104.3 | 15 |
| 29 | Philadelphia | 52 | 382 | 7.3 | 2 | 102.2 | 21 |
| 30 | Seattle | 53 | 441 | 8.3 | 0 | 97.1 | 19 |
| 31 | LA Rams | 44 | 317 | 7.2 | 3 | 93.7 | 1 |
| 32 | Washington | 42 | 332 | 7.9 | 0 | 75.2 | 30 |
—Ian Allan
