I'm not mentioning the movie Obsession based on whether it's actually a good movie (it definitely is) or whether the topic is original (it isn't) or the acting is strong (it is). It's about a small investment (less than $1 million) and the subsequent return (around $475 million and counting). You can bet that turning low-risk gambles into high-value payoff will be Hollywood's copycat goal for the foreseeable future.
I think it should be your draft day goal as well.
I'm not psychic, but I'll make a guaranteed-lock prediction regarding your first couple of picks: They'll be highly regarded players with plenty of talent who will be expected to anchor your title run. We spend a lot of time thinking about who we'll get at the top of the draft when it doesn't really matter right now. They'll be good, and you'll have time to evaluate Great Player A vs Great Player B vs Great Player C in the coming weeks. It's fun to speculate who your stars will be, and it's how many fantasy mangers get distracted. Because your early picks are like Spider Man or Odyssey: Significant investments expected to produce significant returns. The real question isn't which big-budget property you'll take for your team. It's whether you can find that hidden gem in the later rounds. Backrooms made nearly $400 million on a budget of around $10 million. That's going to affect bottom lines in a way that expensive movies rarely do, and it's the late-round steals that can separate you from your opponents.
While other managers are pouring over top 24 and top 50 lists, you can concentrate on the players that don't come anywhere close to those parameters. When you see a top 200 list, focus on players ranked 100-200. That's roughly rounds 8-16 in a 12-team league. That's where this year's Obsession and Backrooms will be.
Now, who those players will be is the key, and that's for you and the experts to decide. That's not how this column works. I'm just trying to point you in the right direction. I will say that the 49ers will need to throw the ball to somebody, Kittle is on the PUP list, Ricky Pearsall is out for the year, Mike Evans is 33 and Deebo Samuel looks older than his 30 years. Does De'Zhaun Stribling look like a gamble worth taking? Why, yes he does. But some of your fellow managers know that as well, so your job is to find 10 of those kinds of players, and grab as many as you can. You might only get a couple of the very best guys who grace the top of fantasy lists. Maybe three if you're lucky. But if you can add a half-dozen low cost/high reward guys to your roster? You have good chance of hitting it big with one (or more) of them. That's how you can win your league.
That strategy can also help your team stay afloat if those guaranteed stars in the early rounds fizzle out. The Mandalorian and Supergirl each lost hundreds of millions for their respective studios. I'm sure they'd appreciate an extra $400 million coming out of nowhere. The players at the end of your draft can provide insurance against something going wrong at the beginning.
So what do many managers actually do at the end of their draft? Get bored, get antsy, get distracted, or get hammered. They're already fawning over their earlier picks and aren't worried about who fills out their roster. And that's where you come in, like a Hollywood studio exec looking for the next cheap script to turn into a blockbuster. You have time to figure out which stars you're putting on your roster. Focus on the later rounds and you'll have a distinct advantage over your opponents who are totally obsessed with the big names. And from what I’ve seen, obsessions don’t usually turn out well.
Who’s somebody you hit on late in the past who helped you win a title? Who do you like this year? What’s your favorite movie of 2026? Share your thoughts below.
