Luther Burden has a groin injury that could sideline him into the regular season. But I’d be inclined to just go ahead and draft him anyway.
The Bears have an up-and-coming offense, with an emerging quarterback and one of the game’s best play callers. And Burden is going to be a key part of what they do – maybe the primary pass catcher.
A couple weeks back, Ben Johnson was comparing Burden to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Not that he’ll be quite that good, but they should be using him a lot.
Burden came on nicely at the end of his rookie season. In his final three games, he caught 18 of the 22 passes thrown his way, for 285 yards and a touchdown. Now they’ve traded away DJ Moore, ensuring they’ll be looking to Burden plenty.
Not that any of this is particularly surprising. Everyone is aware of Burden’s second-year potential. And with that in mind, the groin injury may end up being a bonus – giving you a better chance of landing him at a decent price tag.
But while we’re kicking around the possibility of Burden, let’s unpack some of the stats. Specifically, is there danger in reading too much into the small sample size of a hot finish to a rookie season? Is there danger in getting too optimistic about such guys?
On this one, I tossed out the last week of the regular season (with such games often involving players resting, polluting the stats). I looked instead at the last five other games, seeing which players were finishing strong.
In the last 10 years, only 17 wide receivers (including Burden) averaged at least 15 points (assuming PPR scoring) in their final five games. We can then look at how those guys performed the next year.
It didn’t play out well last year, with all four candidates underperforming relative to where they were drafted. Brian Thomas struggled in a new offense. Malik Nabers missed most of the year, but it didn’t look like he was going to shine anyway. Ladd McConkey didn’t pop. And Jalen McMillan got injured in the preseason.
But I see lots of hits with the other guys, with Johnson’s earlier candidate (St. Brown) leading the way.
Below are the top 50 rookie receivers of the last 10 years (based on per-game production in those final five games). Of the 50, eight finished with top-10 numbers the next season, and another 17 at least made the top 30. So for ballpark purposes, we might say it’s about 50-50 whether such candidates will be top-30 receivers. Stuff happens. Players get hurt or underperform.
Of these 50 promising candidates, 20 (a full 40 percent) ranked 50th or lower in their second year. That group includes Cooper Kupp (who got hurt) and Marvin Harrison, who simply underperformed.
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS WHO CLOSED STRONG | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | (rookie close) |
| 2025 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 48 | 707 | 3 | 138.8 | 42 | 38-490-5 |
| 2022 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 106 | 1,161 | 6 | 267.6 | 7 | 43-451-4 |
| 2022 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 87 | 1,046 | 9 | 246.4 | 11 | 29-523-5 |
| 2025 | Ladd McConkey, LAC | 66 | 789 | 6 | 180.9 | 30 | 28-356-3 |
| 2025 | Malik Nabers, NYG | 18 | 271 | 2 | 57.1 | 102 | 37-469-3 |
| 2022 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 75 | 1,356 | 8 | 261.2 | 8 | 31-366-2 |
| 2021 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 108 | 1,616 | 10 | 332.8 | 4 | 34-419-3 |
| 2020 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 70 | 1,075 | 12 | 249.5 | 11 | 21-481-4 |
| 2017 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 104 | 1,245 | 5 | 258.5 | 6 | 26-300-3 |
| 2024 | Puka Nacua, LAR | 79 | 990 | 4 | 206.6 | 26 | 28-521-2 |
| 2024 | Rashee Rice, K.C. | 24 | 288 | 2 | 64.9 | 101 | 35-411-2 |
| 2018 | Keelan Cole, Jac. | 38 | 491 | 1 | 93.1 | 81 | 21-472-3 |
| 2021 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 56 | 826 | 5 | 172.3 | 35 | 25-302-2 |
| 2025 | Jalen McMillan, T.B. | 12 | 178 | 0 | 29.9 | 138 | 21-267-6 |
| 2019 | Dante Pettis, S.F. | 11 | 109 | 2 | 34.7 | 133 | 20-359-4 |
| 2026 | Luther Burden, Chi. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 22-322-1 |
| 2024 | Zay Flowers, Balt. | 74 | 1,059 | 4 | 209.5 | 25 | 24-270-4 |
| 2018 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 40 | 566 | 6 | 135.1 | 51 | 24-388-2 |
| 2025 | Xavier Worthy, K.C. | 42 | 532 | 1 | 109.9 | 59 | 31-285-2 |
| 2018 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 111 | 1,426 | 7 | 298.9 | 8 | 16-206-1 |
| 2020 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 87 | 1,118 | 4 | 225.8 | 20 | 23-353-2 |
| 2019 | Robert Foster, Buff. | 3 | 64 | 0 | 12.3 | 161 | 18-385-2 |
| 2020 | Darius Slayton, NYG | 50 | 751 | 3 | 143.0 | 54 | 17-296-3 |
| 2021 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 74 | 1,091 | 6 | 221.1 | 23 | 24-279-2 |
| 2023 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 95 | 1,042 | 3 | 217.2 | 26 | 25-386-0 |
| 2023 | Jahan Dotson, Was. | 49 | 518 | 4 | 124.8 | 56 | 18-272-3 |
| 2023 | Drake London, Atl. | 69 | 905 | 2 | 174.6 | 36 | 27-337-0 |
| 2017 | Malcolm Mitchell, N.E. | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- | 21-208-3 |
| 2020 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 88 | 923 | 7 | 223.8 | 21 | 23-246-2 |
| 2023 | Rashid Shaheed, N.O. | 46 | 719 | 6 | 157.6 | 42 | 19-343-1 |
| 2018 | Dede Westbrook, Jac. | 66 | 717 | 6 | 183.5 | 30 | 23-295-1 |
| 2019 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 63 | 866 | 7 | 197.0 | 27 | 20-257-2 |
| 2023 | Christian Watson, G.B. | 28 | 422 | 5 | 101.3 | 69 | 18-264-2 |
| 2024 | Robbie Chosen, Mia. | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | 212 | 16-274-2 |
| 2021 | Laviska Shenault, Jac. | 63 | 619 | 0 | 129.0 | 56 | 22-209-2 |
| 2024 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 100 | 1,130 | 6 | 253.4 | 10 | 22-208-2 |
| 2025 | Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 41 | 608 | 4 | 127.8 | 50 | 21-276-1 |
| 2021 | Gabe Davis, Buff. | 35 | 549 | 6 | 125.9 | 58 | 14-217-3 |
| 2021 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 79 | 1,102 | 6 | 232.8 | 19 | 21-263-1 |
| 2019 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | 72 | 1,112 | 6 | 222.8 | 19 | 18-220-2 |
| 2024 | Jordan Addison, Min. | 63 | 875 | 10 | 212.5 | 21 | 18-207-2 |
| 2020 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 33 | 391 | 1 | 80.7 | 96 | 14-227-2 |
| 2023 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 87 | 1,123 | 5 | 231.3 | 16 | 16-222-0 |
| 2021 | Collin Johnson, NYG | 11 | 105 | 0 | 21.5 | 152 | 11-203-1 |
| 2020 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 83 | 1,303 | 10 | 273.3 | 7 | 17-224-1 |
| 2021 | Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cle. | 34 | 597 | 3 | 111.7 | 63 | 8-221-1 |
| 2019 | DJ Moore, Car. | 87 | 1,175 | 4 | 232.5 | 16 | 21-233-0 |
| 2024 | Quentin Johnston, LAC | 55 | 711 | 8 | 174.7 | 39 | 15-224-1 |
| 2022 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 95 | 1,196 | 7 | 256.6 | 9 | 15-211-1 |
| 2023 | George Pickens, Pitt. | 63 | 1,140 | 5 | 208.8 | 30 | 13-219-1 |
| 2017 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 22 | 225 | 2 | 56.5 | 104 | 19-215-0 |
—Ian Allan

