The quarterback position is tricky this year. On the one hand, there are plenty of good ones. But at the same time, how long can one ignore a player who might throw 40 touchdowns?
Per ADP numbers at CBS Sports, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert and Brock Purdy are currently being picked 79-95 players into drafts – after the likes of Harold Fannin, Tony Pollard and Jaylen Warren. Warren is probably the 2nd-best running back on his own team, while Fannin and Pollard could be hamstrung by playing on the league’s two worst offenses.
Similarly, Patrick Mahomes (102) and Jared Goff (108) are currently being selected after Chris Godwin, Isaiah Likely and Kenneth Gainwell. I mean, c’mon. While I understand positional value, I sense a lot of these picks aren’t going to age well.
As an experiment, consider our most recent season. Let’s assume that if you waited until perhaps the 9th or 10th round, you would end up at that position with the performance of the first non-starting player. Given the lineup parameters in typical leagues, let’s say the 13th QB, the 25th RB, the 25th WR or the 13th TE. You would get to a statistical finish of that sort with some combination of later-round picks and in-season waiver moves. That would be the estimate.
With those baselines in place, let’s then measure how much better you would be if using an early pick on other players. That is, the top QB options get not their overall points, but instead a measure of how much better they are then the 13th-best QB (which is what you would have got by waiting). And assume the same at the other position. The RB and WR would get measured against the 25th-best players at their positions.
Assuming this kind of approach, and looking at how last season played out, I see 10 quarterbacks showing up in the overall top 40. While nobody last year selected Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye or Trevor Maye in their top 40, the numbers suggest they all should have been picked in the top 20.
In the table below, it includes the total number of fantasy points the player produced (PPR). The “base” number shows the production of the baseline player at that position, and the “value” number shows the relative value (subtracting base production from total production).
| ADJUSTED OVERALL TOP 40 FOR LAST SEASON | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | PPR | Base | Value |
| Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | RB-1 | 416.6 | 181.4 | 235.2 |
| Bijan Robinson, Atl. | RB-2 | 376.8 | 181.4 | 195.4 |
| Puka Nacua, LAR | WR-1 | 377.0 | 188.2 | 188.8 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | RB-3 | 368.9 | 181.4 | 187.5 |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | RB-4 | 364.3 | 181.4 | 182.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | WR-2 | 361.9 | 188.2 | 173.7 |
| Trey McBride, Ari. | TE-1 | 315.9 | 161.5 | 154.4 |
| DeVon Achane, Mia. | RB-5 | 322.8 | 181.4 | 141.4 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | WR-3 | 324.0 | 188.2 | 135.8 |
| Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | WR-4 | 315.6 | 188.2 | 127.4 |
| James Cook, Buff. | RB-6 | 308.2 | 181.4 | 126.8 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | QB-1 | 427.3 | 315.9 | 111.4 |
| Derrick Henry, Balt. | RB-7 | 285.5 | 181.4 | 104.1 |
| George Pickens, Dall. | WR-5 | 291.9 | 188.2 | 103.7 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | QB-2 | 419.5 | 315.9 | 103.6 |
| Drake Maye, N.E. | QB-3 | 417.9 | 315.9 | 102.0 |
| Chase Brown, Cin. | RB-8 | 282.6 | 181.4 | 101.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | QB-4 | 408.3 | 315.9 | 92.4 |
| Kyren Williams, LAR | RB-9 | 267.3 | 181.4 | 85.9 |
| Chris Olave, N.O. | WR-6 | 270.0 | 188.2 | 81.8 |
| Travis Etienne, Jac. | RB-10 | 253.9 | 181.4 | 72.5 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | QB-5 | 383.3 | 315.9 | 67.4 |
| Ashton Jeanty, L.V. | RB-11 | 247.1 | 181.4 | 65.7 |
| Javonte Williams, Dall. | RB-12 | 246.8 | 181.4 | 65.4 |
| Zay Flowers, Balt. | WR-7 | 249.3 | 188.2 | 61.1 |
| Josh Jacobs, G.B. | RB-13 | 241.1 | 181.4 | 59.7 |
| Caleb Williams, Chi. | QB-6 | 374.1 | 315.9 | 58.2 |
| Bo Nix, Den. | QB-7 | 370.2 | 315.9 | 54.3 |
| Saquon Barkley, Phil. | RB-14 | 234.3 | 181.4 | 52.9 |
| Jared Goff, Det. | QB-8 | 368.7 | 315.9 | 52.8 |
| D'Andre Swift, Chi. | RB-15 | 232.6 | 181.4 | 51.2 |
| Kyle Pitts, Atl. | TE-2 | 210.8 | 161.5 | 49.3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell, Pitt. | RB-16 | 223.3 | 181.4 | 41.9 |
| Nico Collins, Hou. | WR-8 | 228.2 | 188.2 | 40.0 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | QB-9 | 354.2 | 315.9 | 38.3 |
| Rico Dowdle, Car. | RB-17 | 218.3 | 181.4 | 36.9 |
| Jaylen Warren, Pitt. | RB-18 | 217.1 | 181.4 | 35.7 |
| Jalen Hurts, Phil. | QB-10 | 351.3 | 315.9 | 35.4 |
| Davante Adams, LAR | WR-9 | 222.9 | 188.2 | 34.7 |
| Michael Wilson, Ari. | WR-10 | 220.6 | 188.2 | 32.4 |
If we follow this kind of reasoning for the last 10 years, the numbers suggest 36 quarterbacks in hindsight have been worth top 20 overall picks in drafts – about 3-4 per season. Last year’s group hit that range, but with only one of the four (Josh Allen) being a quarterback who was attracting considerable attention in August. Stafford, Maye and Lawrence all surprised to some degree.
I’m not saying we should all but selecting quarterbacks in the top 20 or top 30. Part of the decision involves balancing the expected behavior of the others in your league. But if you’ve got a strong belief that Joe Burrow is going to blow up or that Trevor Lawrence will again be running in a bunch of touchdowns, absolutely nothing wrong with selecting those guys a lot earlier than most are expecting.
Recent seasons suggest it’s very likely there will be quarterbacks that will dramatically outperform their draft position.
| QUARTERBACKS WHO WERE TOP-20 VALUES (last 10 years) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rank | PPR | Base | Value |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 3 | 493.9 | 308.2 | 185.8 |
| 2023 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 4 | 479.7 | 335.1 | 144.6 |
| 2024 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 5 | 490.1 | 335.5 | 154.6 |
| 2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 5 | 482.7 | 341.7 | 141.0 |
| 2022 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 6 | 476.4 | 308.2 | 168.2 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 6 | 463.0 | 327.7 | 135.3 |
| 2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 7 | 473.5 | 347.2 | 126.4 |
| 2016 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 7 | 446.3 | 324.7 | 121.6 |
| 2023 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 7 | 435.4 | 335.1 | 100.3 |
| 2024 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 8 | 450.0 | 335.5 | 114.5 |
| 2021 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 9 | 462.9 | 341.7 | 121.2 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 10 | 496.1 | 350.9 | 145.2 |
| 2020 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 10 | 450.5 | 347.2 | 103.3 |
| 2022 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 11 | 431.1 | 308.2 | 122.9 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 11 | 457.9 | 341.7 | 116.2 |
| 2024 | Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 11 | 446.8 | 335.5 | 111.3 |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 11 | 415.8 | 313.3 | 102.5 |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 11 | 426.5 | 327.7 | 98.8 |
| 2025 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 12 | 427.3 | 315.9 | 111.4 |
| 2016 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 12 | 422.4 | 324.7 | 97.7 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 12 | 440.3 | 347.2 | 93.1 |
| 2022 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 13 | 425.5 | 308.2 | 117.3 |
| 2021 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 14 | 444.1 | 341.7 | 102.4 |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 14 | 437.8 | 347.2 | 90.7 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 14 | 414.9 | 324.7 | 90.2 |
| 2025 | Matthew Stafford, LAR | 15 | 419.5 | 315.9 | 103.6 |
| 2024 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 15 | 432.4 | 335.5 | 96.9 |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 15 | 437.6 | 347.2 | 90.4 |
| 2025 | Drake Maye, N.E. | 16 | 417.9 | 315.9 | 102.0 |
| 2020 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 435.9 | 347.2 | 88.8 |
| 2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 17 | 412.8 | 327.7 | 85.2 |
| 2023 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 17 | 410.0 | 335.1 | 74.9 |
| 2025 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 18 | 408.3 | 315.9 | 92.4 |
| 2021 | Matthew Stafford, LAR | 20 | 416.6 | 341.7 | 74.9 |
—Ian Allan
