Sean McVay doesn’t play his guys in the exhibition games. More so than anyone else, he’s responsible for the decline of the preseason into a hardly watchable afterthought. He opened the floodgates for other coaches to feel OK hardly putting anyone on the field in August.
With the reduced on-field work, it makes one wonder if the Rams might be more prone to slow starts. It takes time on task, after all, to work out the timing on run plays and pass routes. And with that in mind, should we all be less inclined to use McVay’s players in Week 1?
It makes some sense as a theory (though less so more recently, with more coaches following McVay’s lead). And unpacking the stats of the last nine years, it’s not really supported by the numbers.
McVay is 7-2 in season openers. The Rams began last season with a lackluster 14-9 win over Houston, but that’s a lights-out defense. Los Angeles in its previous two openers won 30-13 at Seattle and lost a 26-20 overtime shootout at Detroit (despite Puka Nacua being knocked out of that game very early).
I don’t see anything suggesting LA players should be downgraded in Week 1. While I’m a little nervous about their unorthodox travel plans (choosing to try to beat jet lag by showing up late), they presumably believe that’s the way to go. Certainly, the matchup looks just fine, with San Francisco having a modest defense. The Rams scored 9 TDs in their two games against the 49ers last year.
In each of the Rams’ last five openers, they’ve averaged no better than 3.6 yards per carry. In only three of McVay’s nine openers have his offenses put up better overall rushing numbers than what they went on to average for the season. That’s using standard fantasy scoring. But they’ve also run for touchdowns in six of their last seven openers.
In the following chart, the “Rk” shows how Los Angeles ranked in Week 1 in each year, relative to the other 31 teams. The column-ending percent reflects how that compares to their season-long stats.
| RAMS RUSHING IN WEEK 1 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Result | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Rk | Diff |
| 2017 | Ind. | W, 46-9 | 33 | 63 | 1.9 | 2 | 8 | -2% |
| 2018 | at Oak. | W, 33-13 | 26 | 140 | 5.4 | 0 | 18 | -38% |
| 2019 | at Car. | W, 30-27 | 32 | 166 | 5.2 | 2 | 4 | 70% |
| 2020 | Dall. | W, 20-17 | 40 | 153 | 3.8 | 2 | 4 | 38% |
| 2021 | Chi. | W, 34-14 | 23 | 74 | 3.2 | 1 | 18 | 0% |
| 2022 | Buff. | L, 10-31 | 18 | 52 | 2.9 | 0 | 32 | -65% |
| 2023 | at Sea. | W, 30-13 | 40 | 92 | 2.3 | 3 | 4 | 48% |
| 2024 | at Det. | L, 20-26 | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 1 | 22 | -9% |
| 2025 | Hou. | W, 14-9 | 25 | 72 | 2.9 | 1 | 17 | -29% |
Passing stats also aren’t terribly noteworthy. In the McVay era, their opening day passing stats have been 5 percent worse than what they’ve done for the duration of the season. But I see them coming in better than their season average in five of those nine games. (That’s using PPR scoring).
Matthew Stafford threw 3 TDs in his first game as a Ram. Since that time, he’s thrown 1, 0, 1 and 1 touchdowns in his four openers. But the last game was against Houston (tough defense). He went over 300 yards in each of his previous two, and that was despite losing Nacua early in one of those games. Stafford averaged 335 yards against the 49ers last year, with 7 TDs and no interceptions.
| RAMS PASSING IN WEEK 1 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Result | Com | Yards | TD | Rk | Diff |
| 2017 | Ind. | W, 46-9 | 22 | 310 | 1 | 9 | 6% |
| 2018 | at Oak. | W, 33-13 | 18 | 225 | 2 | 18 | -19% |
| 2019 | at Car. | W, 30-27 | 23 | 183 | 1 | 24 | -24% |
| 2020 | Dall. | W, 20-17 | 20 | 269 | 0 | 26 | -19% |
| 2021 | Chi. | W, 34-14 | 20 | 312 | 3 | 11 | 3% |
| 2022 | Buff. | L, 10-31 | 29 | 191 | 1 | 16 | 16% |
| 2023 | at Sea. | W, 30-13 | 24 | 334 | 0 | 5 | 3% |
| 2024 | at Det. | L, 20-26 | 34 | 304 | 1 | 2 | 32% |
| 2025 | Hou. | W, 14-9 | 21 | 224 | 1 | 13 | -26% |
—Ian Allan
