LAS VEGAS (vs Mia.) The Fernando Mendoza era in Las Vegas will have to wait, but the Raiders are starting to see some light. New head coach Klint Kubiak worked his magic with the Seahawks offense last season, and he has nowhere to go but up with a Raiders offense that ranked dead last in points (14.2) and yards (245) last season, with a league-low 77.5 rushing yards per game and just 5 rushing touchdowns all year. There are some health questions, particularly at running back, that complicate his debut, but the young Dolphins don't stand as a very imposing threat as the Raiders open the season favored by more than a field goal.
Kirk Cousins as the
placeholder for Mendoza begins in Week 1, and when it ends remains to be seen. He
may not be the Pro Bowl-level quarterback he was earlier in his career, but
Cousins managed to go 5-3 as a starter with the Falcons last season, averaging 206
passing yards per game. Lacking any blue-chip wide receivers and with an
offensive line that allowed a league-high 66 sacks last season, it's likely the
Raiders will want Cousins to get the ball out quickly. Miami's defense ranked
18th in passing yards and 21st in passing touchdowns allowed last season (29),
and they were last in completion rate allowed (72 percent). We shouldn't put it
past Cousins to test the two rookies the Dolphins will start in the secondary.
Ashton Jeanty's health
after an ankle sprain suffered on August 23 is an open question. He had not
practiced in the two weeks following the injury, though he's been working on
the side and Kubiak said flatly that he's optimistic about Week 1. The early
expectation is that Jeanty will suit up, but the fact that the Raiders have
raved about rookie backup Mike Washington all offseason gives the team a
convenient excuse to limit their star running back; the fourth-rounder
averaged 7.3 yards per carry in exhibition play, including a 53-yard run.
Jeanty dominated the backfield with 84 percent of running back touches last
season -- 266 carries for 975 yards and 5 scores, plus 55 catches for 346 yards
and 5 more -- but he topped 100 rushing yards in only 2 of 17 games. Something
closer to a 60/40 split in this game is a safer bet if Jeanty has any lingering
pain at all. It's a safe bet that Jeanty will improve on last year's 3.7 yards
per carry with the personnel additions to the Raiders line, and Miami's defense
allowed the 7th-most points to running backs last season, a brutal 4.8 yards
per carry and 132 rushing yards per game (26th). The speedy Washington was
already a fine stash entering the year, and is very
playable under the idea Jeanty may be on a snap count.
There aren't any standouts in
the Raiders wide receiver room, but Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor
have had their moments. Tucker shouldn't have a problem matching last year's 95
percent snap share, and he's coming off an efficient preseason catching all 5
of his targets for 46 yards. Former Viking Nailor is the home run hitter, with
a career 15.4 per catch average and 10 scores over only 57 catches in the last
two seasons. The concern for Nailor is that for all of Miami's defensive issues
last season, they did a good job reeling in wide receivers, allowing the
9th-lowest yardage production (127 per game). Jack Bech was on the field
for more than 50 percent of the snaps in his last 5 games last season but did very
little other than a 6-catch performance, against Denver. He did have a nice
touchdown grab in the preseason so possible he’ll take a step up; the
opportunity is there.
Brock Bowers is a
plug-and-play at tight end if there ever was one, and this matchup could be one
of his better opportunities for big numbers. With possible physical limitations
for Jeanty, Bowers will be available as the other outlet receiver while Cousins
gets the ball out quickly -- and note that 8 of the Raiders' 20 touchdown
passes last year went to tight ends. The Dolphins allowed the 5th-most fantasy
points to tight ends last season and 8 touchdowns to the position, and Bowers
should be a go-to receiver early for Cousins. Dolphins first-round rookie Chris
Johnson could get the challenge of defending Bowers as his first career
assignment, a potentially very tough wake-up call in the NFL. No. 2 tight end Michael
Mayer should also be involved in Kubiak's two-tight-end sets.
Matt Gay won the kicker
job in the preseason by making 5 of 6 field goals and both of his extra-point
attempts. He had a very rough time in Washington last year (13 of 19 on field
goal attempts), but a return to a dome after two years with the Colts should
help. Unfortunately, the Dolphins held fantasy kickers to the 8th-lowest output
last season.
While there's ample reason to
expect Miami's offense to have hiccups, the Raiders Defense isn't in a position to be a great fantasy option quite yet.
They were 25th in points allowed (25), 18th in sacks
(37), and 23rd in takeaways (16) last season, and the significant changes at
linebacker and the secondary probably aren't quite enough to vault them to
relevance against a Dolphins offense expected to play conservatively. The team
also didn't generate anything of note on special teams last year.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 1 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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