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Lions are defenseless

Brissett next to face Detroit's beleaguered secondary

The Cardinals just lost their up-and-coming left tackle, Paris Johnson, to a season-ending biceps injury. But I would be inclined to roll out the key players in that offense anyway. They’re at home, and they’re facing a defense that’s been pretty putrid.

The Lions have been comically inept thus far, getting boat-raced at Buffalo and Carolina and having to win high-scoring shootouts at home against the Saints and Jets. Thru four games, they’re allowing a league-high 304 passing yards, and with 3, 3, 3 and 2 TD passes in their four games. They’re a joke.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been credible at times, with 277 passing yards against the Chargers and 280 at San Francisco, with 2 TDs. Jacoby Brissett, despite his limitations, averaged the most passing yards in the league last year after moving into the starting lineup.

Even without Johnson, I think Brissett looks like a credible enough option to finish with above-average numbers. (I have not looked closely at the other 29 starters, but my early guess is that Brissett will outperform over half of them.) Trey McBride should finish as one of the top few tight ends, while Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison should be ranked higher than in a typical week.

At the same time, I pulled up some of the historical numbers, and they serve as a reminder that things never stay the same for long. Below see a chart showing that 50 defenses in the last 10 years that have ranked in the bottom 5 against the pass after four games. (And mixed in are the five this year that rank in the bottom 5, including the Commanders, Cowboys, Bills and Cardinals themselves – and this is using typical fantasy scoring.)

I took those 50 defenses and then looked at how they performed in their next 10 games. Remarkably, over half of these teams ranked above-average in their next 10 games (tagged with black dots). Almost unbelievably, over a quarter of these struggling defenses put up top-10 numbers against the pass in their next 10 games (tagged with double dots).

Only eight of these 50 defenses, meanwhile, also had bottom-5 defenses in their next 10 games. I believe this means when a defense is really struggling – like these current five – there will be an effort to change things. Coordinators get fired, lineup changes occur. Teams aren’t going to sit back and let teams pass for 280-plus yards all year.

(I suppose there is also some small-sample size bias at work here – a team gets involved in a couple of shootouts or bad matchups, and it looks worse than it actually is.)

The big-picture numbers suggest Detroit will play better in the final three quarters of the season. But as poorly as they’ve played against the pass in each of their first four, I would be comfortable rolling with Brissett.

BOTTOM-5 PASS DEFENSES THROUGH WEEK 4
YearTeamYardsTDRkNxt YdsNxt TDNxt Rk
2018• Tampa Bay358.01332218.71712
2020Atlanta341.51332266.21522
2016Atlanta317.01332247.51518
2021•• Tampa Bay327.51132211.5126
2020•• Cleveland310.51231220.9148
2017• New England324.01132227.51312
2018•• Pittsburgh304.81231209.4147
2023• Denver285.51332215.51215
2019Miami296.31232242.52126
2018• New Orleans311.01130243.11415
2026Detroit304.01132???
2019• Philadelphia323.8931203.81712
2018• Houston288.01129246.41313
2016•• Detroit271.81231238.21310
2021•• Dallas315.3931217.894
2021Washington299.01030245.31828
2018Kansas City328.5828264.11930
2025Dallas297.31032237.82127
2016• Oakland325.5830232.41514
2017•• Tennessee274.31131229.91210
2020• Dallas258.01230207.31913
2022•• Baltimore315.3832211.9109
2021Atlanta264.01129239.61621
2022Tennessee274.01031288.31531
2019Arizona271.01030298.22431
2022Miami299.3830225.11622
2023Chicago267.81031227.81622
2019Oakland281.09292552328
2022Kansas City263.81029213.12026
2021Seattle292.5828266.51224
2022•• Washington259.81028172.2102
2016Cleveland259.81029239.22127
2026Washington242.51131???
2026Buffalo256.31030???
2016NY Jets285.0828238.51923
2020•• New Orleans236.81129200.5146
2019• Washington251.81028217.61615
2025• Baltimore265.5931220.41012
2026Arizona233.81129???
2020Tennessee261.09282822030
2023Philadelphia260.8930253.32131
2025Cincinnati262.0830239.42331
2017Cleveland240.8930233.61827
2023• Pittsburgh254.5829213.41213
2026Dallas239.3928???
2024•• Washington220.51032177.3133
2025Chicago215.01029220.41720
2017Dallas231.8829228.91824
2024•• Green Bay230.5831209.4114
2024Carolina209.3930214.81818
2025Indianapolis223.8828257.11019
2024• LA Rams219.8829217.51513
2017•• Denver210.0828180.2188
2023•• Las Vegas202.8828212.3109
2024Houston161.0828211.21921

—Ian Allan

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