I notice that teams are hitting on fewer long touchdowns this year. Thru Week 4, there have been only 9 TD passes of 50-plus yards. That’s the fewest of any of the last 10 years.
In four of the previous nine, in fact, teams scored over twice as many such touchdowns. In the 2018 and 2019 seasons, there were 25 and 21 such plays. But they haven’t been coming of late, with only 10 long touchdowns through four weeks a year ago (the 2nd-lowest total) and now only 9.
Three players thus far have caught touchdowns of 50-plus – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Christian Watson (pictured) and Deebo Samuel.
| LONGEST TOUCHDOWN PASSES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Opp | Sc ore | Connection |
| Seattle | at Ari. | W 31-7 | Smith-Njigba 82 from Lock |
| Green Bay | at Min. | L 22-39 | Watson 81 from Love |
| San Francisco | Ari. | W 36-30 | Samuel 80 from Purdy |
| Miami | at S.F. | L 13-35 | Miller 77 from Willis |
| NY Jets | at Chi. | L 12-23 | Williams 58 from Smith |
| San Francisco | Den. | W 24-14 | Kittle 56 from Purdy |
| Cleveland | at T.B. | W 23-19 | Boston 55 from Watson |
| Baltimore | at Ind. | W 41-23 | Flowers 54 from Jackson |
| Carolina | Chi. | L 37-59 | Coker 51 from Young |
I believe this is connected to more defenses dropping more players into coverage, forcing offenses to dink and dunk down the field. There’s been more willingness to let teams run the ball, and less risk taking, with fewer opportunities for long shots down field. More teams seem to be willing to sit back, hoping a drive eventually bogs down.
This is just how the game has evolved, apparently. Below, see the average yards per completion in the 32-team era. Thus far this year, teams are averaging only 10.46 yards per completion – almost a half yard lower than any other season.
Through 2020, teams (as a whole) had averaged fewer than 11 yards per catch only once. Now it’s happened six years in a row. In the 32-team era, the 10 most explosive season (by yards per catch) are all over 10 years in the rearview mirror.
In my TD-only league, we give double value for players who catch touchdowns from 50-plus, so I typically trend towards players I believe will hit on a couple of those plays over the course of the season. But those plays simply haven’t been happening thus far.
| YARDS PER COMPLETION | |
|---|---|
| Year | Avg |
| 2002 | 11.27 |
| 2003 | 11.29 |
| 2004 | 11.80 |
| 2005 | 11.41 |
| 2006 | 11.46 |
| 2007 | 11.21 |
| 2008 | 11.38 |
| 2009 | 11.47 |
| 2010 | 11.53 |
| 2011 | 11.98 |
| 2012 | 11.63 |
| 2013 | 11.64 |
| 2014 | 10.83 |
| 2015 | 11.51 |
| 2016 | 11.35 |
| 2017 | 11.30 |
| 2018 | 11.37 |
| 2019 | 11.38 |
| 2020 | 11.10 |
| 2021 | 10.96 |
| 2022 | 10.95 |
| 2023 | 10.89 |
| 2024 | 10.92 |
| 2025 | 10.91 |
| 2026 | 10.46 |
—Ian Allan
