ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp through the Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: How does weather impact your fantasy decisions?
TONY HOLM
Case-by-case based on exactly what the weather issue is. I most certainly do look at the forecasts for each game each week. If sustained wind or wind gusts reach 30 MPH I steer clear of kickers and pocket passer quarterbacks and avoid deep threat wide receivers. If it’s hard rain, I try to avoid most of the players in the game except for workhorse running backs. There is a fine line however, as Tom Brady said, slippery conditions give the offense an advantage. I also like to play team defenses in sloppy games for the turnovers. Snow and cold I don’t worry about too much unless it’s the kind of snow that the field crew can’t keep up with, those games I try to avoid entirely.
Holm works for Fantasy Sharks, whose rankings and content can be found at fantasysharks.com.
IAN ALLAN
I think weather tends to be overrated. The Bears, as an example, struggled against Minnesota, and a narrative was built around the rain holding their offense back. But the Vikings have been playing lights out defensively. I'm not sure that Chicago wouldn't have similarly struggled in ideal situations. Drake Maye played horribly at Jacksonville, with the ball slipping out of his hands at one point. No doubt if there had been a light rain, it would have been blamed for the struggles. Factor in also that more stadiums nowadays are compactly built around fields. They're tight venues. I think this reduces the impact of wind on kickers and passers. I have done a lot of projections on a lot of players over the years, and it seems to be that the tendency is to overcorrect for how much a player will be held back by weather conditions. For me, I don't pay theme much mind until mid-November on. And I'm not downgrading guys unless it looks weather is certain to be rugged.
Allan co-founded Fantasy Football Index in 1987. He is a member of the FSGA Fantasy Sports Hall of Fame and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame.
JASON WOOD
It's case-by-case. There are some historically defined thresholds worth remembering, of course. 15-mph winds are problematic, while 20+ mph winds are genuinely restrictive to passing output. But weather impacts, unless they're late in the week shift and unexpected, are largely factored into point spreads and team totals already, so further discounting projections models because of the weather as a standalone factor is often double-counting the impact.
Wood is Senior Editor at Footballguys.com and has been with the company since its start in 2000. For more than 20 years, Footballguys has provided rankings, projections, and analysis to help fantasy managers dominate their leagues.
MICHAEL NAZAREK
I normally don't worry about early season weather unless a torrential downpour is happening before the game begins. Later in the season, I will take big winds into account when choosing my kicker and snowstorms are a concern for the passing game most of the time. Otherwise, I tend to trust the talent on my team to produce in most weather-related situations.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc, celebrating 30 years online! His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its website, www.ffmastermind.com. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. He's also won more than $40K in recent seasons of the FFPC High Stakes Main Event. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
TOM KESSENICH
It's definitely case by case. I typically find that unless the weather is significantly extreme people overreact to weather conditions when it comes to fantasy. My primary concern is wind and even there unless the wind is significant gusts (i.e. 30-40 MPH or higher) I'm not going to alter my plans. Major blizzard-like conditions will change things as well but those are typically the two types of weather conditions I'll look for. Otherwise, I won't let weather significantly influence my lineup decisions greatly.
Kessenich is the Director of High Stakes Contests for SportsHub Games. He runs the NFFC, NFBC and NFBKC and is a fantasy sports Hall of Fame inductee.
SCOTT SACHS
There are plenty of factors in making lineup decisions. West Coast team playing at 1pm in Eastern city, teams on short week or longer week, injury status, opposing defense, etc. Poor weather is certainly a factor to be considered, as well. The steady rain last Sunday for Browns vs Jets, Braelon Allen and Garrett Wilson ran amok, and New York's aggressive defense smothered Cleveland. If it's a close choice between players, especially during the bye weeks, inclement weather is essential to be aware of to make the best decision. Rain and wind are problems now, then Winter brings its own set of issues. It's all part of the fun.
With 2 perfect seasons and multiple league championships to his credit, Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, featuring LIVE Talk & Text Advice. He is a 3-time winner of the Fantasy Index Experts Auction League, as well as a previous winner of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll. Follow on X: https://x.com/ffbcoach
SCOTT PIANOWSKI
It's generally just a tie-breaker for me. Forecasts change. Weather can come and go. And often a preferred fantasy player can get there on just one big play. You have to season it to taste, but the most part, I think weather is overblown.
Pianowski has been with Yahoo Sports since 2008, covering a variety of sports. On the rare occasions when the computer is turned off, he enjoys word games, poker, music, film, game theory, and a variety of condiments. He lives in suburban Detroit. Pianowski was inducted into the FSWA Hall of Fame in 2021.
ANDY RICHARDSON
I've reached a point where I want little to do with passing games playing at MetLife, so games involving the Jets and Giants. It seems to be windy and rainy every week there (and yes, I live in the area), so errant passes and missed field goals and general disappointing passing games seem to be common. I don't bench star players, who can overcome a lot, but it's a good tiebreaker when considering quarterbacks and wide receivers. If I can get players in Los Angeles rather than New York/New Jersey, Foxboro, or other Northeast or possible rain-or-wind affected games, I'm doing it these days.
Richardson has been a contributing writer and editor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and www.fantasyindex.com since 2002. He is responsible for various site features, writes a weekly gambling newsletter, Index Bets, during the NFL season and also previews all the games on Saturdays.

